Match Info

USL Cup - Play Offs - Final

Date: 4 October 2025, Saturday

Location: Heart Health Park (Sacramento, CA)

Where to Watch on TV:


Usa	CBS Sports Golazo, ESPN App, ESPN+, Paramount+


	Sacramento Republic		Hartford Athletic

	1	X	2
				Watch
	2.12	2.78	3.96
	2.23	3.09	3.36	Watch
	1.96	3.38	3.44	Watch
	2.04	2.9	3.5
Avarage Now (Initially)	2.09 ↑ (2.06)	3.04 ↓ (3.1)	3.57 ↑ (3.3)

The most likely Over/Under: 2.25

The best margin for this event is 7%, offered by

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Current Win Probability

Sacramento Republic
44%

Draw
30.2%

Hartford Athletic
25.8%

Initial Probability

(when we started the analysis)

43.7%

29%

27.3%

Our Initial ML Estimation

45.4%

30.1%

26.3%

Analysis of Changes in Winning Probabilities:

Sacramento Republic has improved its chances compared to the initial analysis. (+0.3%)

Hartford Athletic has seen a decrease in its chances compared to the initial analysis. (-1.5%)

ML Model estimates a higher probability for Sacramento Republic than the current prediction. (+1.4%)

ML Model estimates a higher probability for Hartford Athletic than the current prediction. (+0.5%)

Sacramento Republic - Hartford Athletic Predictions

Expected Score (Market Odds): 1:1

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Lineups

Starting Lineups
99. Mazzola J. (G) 21. Djedje R. 6. Kleemann F. 4. Desmond L. 2. Gurr J. 19. Ross N. 8. Lopez R. 22. Benitez M. 90. Bennett K. 96. Luis Felipe 11. Cicerone R.	77. Siaha A. (G) 30. Diz A. 4. Scarlett J. (C) 22. Presthus T. 2. Anderson S. 10. Careaga S. 94. Hairston M. 19. Samadia E. 8. Moreira J. 11. Ngalina M. 81. Obalola A.
Substitutes
23. Edwards A. 9. Herrera J. 24. Jamieson L. 10. Parano C. 3. Spaulding R. 5. Timmer J. 55. Ukaegbu C. 1. Vitiello D. (G) 20. Willey B.	92. Barry H. 13. Berner J. (G) 71. Edwards K. 15. Farrell J. 6. Makangila B. 5. Njie B. 16. Panayotou J.

Key Events of the Match

1st Half (0 - 0)
42', Diz A. 🟨,
2nd Half (0 - 1)
46', Obalola A. ↓, Edwards K. ↑,
51', 0 - 1, Careaga S. ⚽,
58', Bennett K. ↓, Parano C. ↑,
73', Luis Felipe ↓, Herrera J. ↑,
74', Lopez R. ↓, Willey B. ↑,
74', Benitez M. ↓, Spaulding R. ↑,
76', Herrera J. 🟨,
79', Careaga S. ↓, Makangila B. ↑,
81', Anderson S. 🟨,
84', Kleemann F. ↓, Jamieson L. ↑,
90', Ngalina M. ↓, Farrell J. ↑,
90+3', Edwards K. 🟨,
90+3', Edwards K. ↓, Njie B. ↑,
90+4', Herrera J. 🟨,
90+4', Siaha A. 🟨,
90+6', Djedje R. 🟨,

Preview

Right now, both teams are showing solid form.

Hartford may have a physical advantage due to more rest days in recent times.

Sacramento Republic might have a minor edge in this game.

In the last 2 head-to-head matches, Sacramento Republic won 2 matches, drew 0 matches, lost 0 matches, and goals 5:1. (average 2.5:0.5).

Including home match between the teams, Sacramento Republic won 1 match, drew 0 matches, lost 0 matches, and goals 1:0.

Form

✺ - easy match; ✺ - difficult match;

- Sacramento Republic FC
USL Championship
01.10.25	Sacramento Republic - Orange County SC	2:1 ✺
27.09.25	Monterey Bay - Sacramento Republic	1:0 ✺
20.09.25	Colorado Springs Switchbacks - Sacramento Republic	0:2 ✺
13.09.25	Sacramento Republic - Phoenix Rising	2:2 ✺
USL Cup
10.09.25	Rhode Island - Sacramento Republic	0:1 penalties ✺
Form Coefficient (based on results and difficulties of last matches) - 9.7 WLWTW
- Hartford Athletic
USL Championship
27.09.25	Colorado Springs Switchbacks - Hartford Athletic	0:2 ✺
20.09.25	Hartford Athletic - Pittsburgh Riverhounds	1:2 ✺
13.09.25	Monterey Bay - Hartford Athletic	0:4 ✺
USL Cup
10.09.25	Hartford Athletic - Greenville Triumph	3:1 ✺
USL Championship
06.09.25	Miami - Hartford Athletic	0:1 ✺
Form Coefficient (based on results and difficulties of last matches) - 16.1 WLWWW

Latest Head to Head

USL Championship
29.06.24	Sacramento Republic - Hartford Athletic	1:0
26.05.23	Hartford Athletic - Sacramento Republic	1:4

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