Match Info

USL Cup - Play Offs - Semi-finals

Date: 10 September 2025, Wednesday

Location: Centreville Bank Stadium (Pawtucket, RI)

Where to Watch on TV:


Usa	ESPN App, ESPN+


	Rhode Island		Sacramento Republic

	1	X	2
				Watch
	2.75	2.71	3.24
	3.20	3.15	2.22	Watch
	2.62	2.68	2.82
Avarage Now (Initially)	2.86 ↑ (2.73)	2.85 ↓ (2.88)	2.76 ↓ (2.8)

The most likely Over/Under: 2.00

The best margin for this event is 4.1%, offered by

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Current Win Probability

Rhode Island
32.9%

Draw
33%

Sacramento Republic
34.1%

Initial Probability

(when we started the analysis)

34.2%

32.4%

33.4%

Our Initial ML Estimation

35.7%

33.8%

32%

Analysis of Changes in Winning Probabilities:

Rhode Island has seen a decrease in its chances compared to the initial analysis. (-1.3%)

Sacramento Republic has improved its chances compared to the initial analysis. (+0.7%)

ML Model estimates a higher probability for Rhode Island than the current prediction. (+2.8%)

ML Model estimates a lower probability for Sacramento Republic than the current prediction. (-2.1%)

Rhode Island - Sacramento Republic Predictions

Over/Under & Asian Handicap Predictions by Selected Experts:

O/U 1.5 - under (votes: 1 - 100%) .

AH 0 - Sacramento Republic (1.89) (votes: 1 - 100%) .

Overall Expert Consensus (including all markets): 1 Selected Experts predict this event. Sacramento Republic (votes: 1 - 100%).

Expected Score (Market Odds): 1:1

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Lineups

Starting Lineups
1. Koke Vegas (C) 3. Sanchez A. 4. Bacharach Capdevila H. 5. Stoneman G. 24. Yao K. 12. Holstad C. 23. Ybarra M. 77. Shapiro-Thompson A. 21. Rodriguez M. 9. Williams J. 7. Atkinson D.	99. Mazzola J. (G) 21. Djedje R. 6. Kleemann F. 4. Desmond L. 2. Gurr J. 19. Ross N. 8. Lopez R. (C) 22. Benitez M. 10. Parano C. 90. Bennett K. 11. Cicerone R.
Substitutes
18. Brito J. 11. Fuson N. 20. Herivaux Z. 22. Lee J. (G) 6. Mabika A. 27. Ndongo M. 15. Nodarse F.	23. Edwards A. 24. Jamieson L. 96. Luis Felipe 3. Spaulding R. 55. Ukaegbu C. 1. Vitiello D. (G) 17. Wanner D. 20. Willey B.

Key Events of the Match

1st Half (0 - 0)
8', Sanchez A. 🟨,
28', Bacharach Capdevila H. 🟨,
2nd Half (0 - 0)
50', Shapiro-Thompson A. 🟨,
52', Lopez R. 🟨,
56', Atkinson D. ↓, Brito J. ↑,
68', Shapiro-Thompson A. ↓, Nodarse F. ↑,
69', Sanchez A. ↓, Fuson N. ↑,
77', Fuson N. 🟨,
77', Stoneman G. ↓, Herivaux Z. ↑,
79', Ross N. ↓, Luis Felipe ↑,
79', Bennett K. ↓, Wanner D. ↑,
84', Gurr J. 🟨,
Penalties (0 - 3)
1, Lopez R. (Pen),
1, Rodriguez M. (Pen),
2, Cicerone R. (Pen),
2, Williams J. (Pen),
3, Benitez M. (Pen),
3, Fuson N. (Pen),

Preview

Rhode Island has been quite unpredictable recently (last 5 games: 2 wins).

Sacramento Republic is in very good shape now (in the last 5 games, wins – 3).

Recently, Rhode Island has had a series of home games.

Recently, Sacramento Republic has had a series of away games.

The probability of winning is almost the same for both teams in this match.

In the last 2 head-to-head matches, Rhode Island won 0 matches, drew 1 match, lost 1 match, and goals 2:4. (average 1:2).

Including home matches between the teams, Rhode Island won 0 matches, drew 1 match, lost 1 match, and goals 2:4. (average 1:2).

Form

✺ - easy match; ✺ - difficult match;

- Rhode Island FC
USL Championship
06.09.25	Rhode Island - Louisville City	0:1 ✺
30.08.25	Rhode Island - Charleston Battery	1:0 ✺
23.08.25	Hartford Athletic - Rhode Island	3:0 ✺
USL Cup
20.08.25	Rhode Island - Birmingham Legion	1:0 ✺
USL Championship
09.08.25	Rhode Island - Loudoun United	0:0 ✺
Form Coefficient (based on results and difficulties of last matches) - 6.9 LWLWT
- Sacramento Republic FC
USL Championship
06.09.25	Tampa Bay Rowdies - Sacramento Republic	0:2 ✺
30.08.25	New Mexico United - Sacramento Republic	0:2 ✺
23.08.25	El Paso Locomotive - Sacramento Republic	1:0 ✺
USL Cup
20.08.25	Loudoun United - Sacramento Republic	0:1 penalties ✺
USL Championship
16.08.25	Sacramento Republic - Oakland Roots	3:3 ✺
Form Coefficient (based on results and difficulties of last matches) - 11.8 WWLWT

Latest Head to Head

USL Championship
21.06.25	Rhode Island - Sacramento Republic	0:2
11.05.24	Rhode Island - Sacramento Republic	2:2

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