Match Info

J2 League - Round 7

Date: 19 September 2026, Saturday

Location: Ekimae Real Estate Stadium (Tosu)

Where to Watch on TV:


China	K-Ball
Japan	DAZN Japan


	Sagan Tosu		Iwaki

	1	X	2
	1.79	3.3	4.33	Watch
	1.93	3.10	3.50
	1.8	3.25	4.2	Watch
	1.86	3.49	4.58
	1.98	3.31	3.9	Watch
	1.8	3.45	4.5
	1.85	3.33	4.37	Watch
	1.82	3.35	4.3
Avarage Now (Initially)	1.85 ↓ (1.93)	3.32 ↓ (3.43)	4.21 ↑ (3.85)

The most likely Over/Under: 2.25

The best margin for this event is 4.3%, offered by

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Current Win Probability

Sagan Tosu
50%

Draw
27.9%

Iwaki
22%

Initial Probability

(when we started the analysis)

48.5%

27.3%

24.3%

Our Initial ML Estimation

48.5%

27.3%

24.3%

Analysis of Changes in Winning Probabilities:

Sagan Tosu has improved its chances compared to the initial analysis. (+1.5%)

Iwaki has seen a decrease in its chances compared to the initial analysis. (-2.3%)

ML Model estimates a lower probability for Sagan Tosu than the current prediction. (-1.5%)

ML Model estimates a higher probability for Iwaki than the current prediction. (+2.3%)

Who will win by Users?

1	X	2
66.7%	33.3%	0%

Sagan Tosu - Iwaki Predictions

Users Predictions: 3 users predict this event. Tosu will win (votes: 2 - 66.7%). It will Tie (votes: 1 - 33.3%).

Expected Score (Market Odds): 1:0

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Lineups

Starting Lineups
1. Izumori R. (G) 5. Nagasawa S. 44. Abe K. 28. Yoshida M. 21. Toyoda A. 6. Sakurai T. 11. Shiohama R. 18. Hyon R. 16. Nishizawa K. 9. Takahashi T. 2. Matsumoto N.	23. Sasaki M. (G) 4. Ushizawa T. 15. Nakano H. 35. Fukaminato S. 7. Nakajima S. 3. Endo R. 13. Fujii K. 27. Yamanaka A. 22. Takahashi Y. 14. Yamaguchi D. 11. Kato T.
Substitutes
42. Goto H. 13. Jojo K. 3. Kamiyama K. 12. Matsubara S. (G) 20. Nakahara H. 19. Park Ho-Min 10. Suzuki D. 43. Yoshino K.	16. Araki M. 28. Hisanaga R. 39. Joo H. (G) 2. Konno I. 5. Kuwata T. 40. Nagaki R. 30. Shota K.
Coaches
Kogiku A.	Tasaka K.

Key Events of the Match

1st Half (0 - 0)
9', Yamaguchi D. 🟨,
31', Nakajima S. 🟨,
2nd Half (1 - 3)
46', 0 - 1, Takahashi Y. ⚽,
58', Hyon R. ↓, Nakahara H. ↑,
58', Nishizawa K. ↓, Suzuki D. ↑,
63', Nakano H. 🟨,
66', 0 - 2, Fukaminato S. ⚽, Nakano H. (A),
71', 1 - 2, Shiohama R. ⚽,
74', Nakajima S. ↓, Shota K. ↑,
74', Yamanaka A. ↓, Konno I. ↑,
75', Takahashi T. ↓, Yoshino K. ↑,
75', Shiohama R. ↓, Goto H. ↑,
76', 1 - 3, Endo R. ⚽, Yamaguchi D. (A),
78', Sakurai T. ↓, Park Ho-Min ↑,
80', Takahashi Y. ↓, Hisanaga R. ↑,
87', Fujii K. ↓, Nagaki R. ↑,
87', Ushizawa T. ↓, Kuwata T. ↑,
90+1', Park Ho-Min 🟨,

Preview

A clash between a stable mid-table side and a team seeking crucial survival points (ranked 12th and 18th in the Relegation ~ J3 League).

Tosu is in solid form heading into this fixture (last 5 matches: 3 wins).

Iwaki has shown an inconsistent pattern in recent weeks (last 5 matches: 2 wins).

A closely fought contest is anticipated, with Tosu holding a narrow advantage.

In the last 2 head-to-head meetings, Tosu has recorded 1 win, 1 draw, and 0 losses, with a goal aggregate of 2:1 (averaging 1:0.5 goals per game).

Specifically in home fixtures for Tosu against this opponent, the record stands at 1 win, 0 draws, and 0 losses, with 1:0 goals.

Standings

		Pl	W	D	L		Diff	Pts
16	Iwaki	9	3	0	6	12:17	-5	9
17	Sagan Tosu	9	2	2	5	8:12	-4	8

Form

✺ - easy match; ✺ - difficult match;

- Sagan Tosu
Japan J2 League
12.09.26	Imabari - Sagan Tosu	1:0 ✺
05.09.26	Sagan Tosu - Tegevajaro Miyazaki	2:0 ✺
Japan J League Cup
02.09.26	Nara Club - Sagan Tosu	1:2 ✺
Japan J2 League
29.08.26	Yokohama FC - Sagan Tosu	2:2 ✺
Japan Emperors Cup
26.08.26	Sagan Tosu - Kataller Toyama	4:0 ✺
Form Coefficient (based on results and difficulties of last matches) - 10.1 LWWTW
- Iwaki FC
Japan J2 League
12.09.26	Iwaki - Yokohama FC	2:0 ✺
05.09.26	Tokushima Vortis - Iwaki	1:0 ✺
Japan J League Cup
02.09.26	Giravanz Kitakyushu - Iwaki	1:0 ✺
Japan J2 League
29.08.26	Iwaki - Albirex Niigata	2:3 ✺
Japan Emperors Cup
26.08.26	Iwaki - Oita Trinita	2:0 AET ✺
Form Coefficient (based on results and difficulties of last matches) - 7.6 WLLLW

Latest Head to Head

Japan J2 League
28.06.25	Sagan Tosu - Iwaki	1:0
09.03.25	Iwaki - Sagan Tosu	1:1

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