Match Info

J2 League - Round 11

Date: 25 April 2025, Friday

Location: Ekimae Real Estate Stadium (Tosu)

Where to Watch on TV:


Japan	DAZN Japan


	Sagan Tosu		Montedio Yamagata

	1	X	2
	2.25	3.4	3	Watch
	2.45	3.1	2.5
	2.34	3.3	2.85	Watch
	2.38	3.46	3.1
	2.34	3.38	2.92	Watch
	2.5	3.2	2.5
	2.26	3.41	3.01	Watch
	2.34	3.3	2.85
Avarage Now (Initially)	2.36 ↓ (2.46)	3.32 ↓ (3.37)	2.84 ↑ (2.67)

The most likely Over/Under: 2.50

The best margin for this event is 3.2%, offered by

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Current Win Probability

Sagan Tosu
39.4%

Draw
28%

Montedio Yamagata
32.7%

Initial Probability

(when we started the analysis)

37.7%

27.6%

34.8%

Our Initial ML Estimation

38.1%

27.3%

34.4%

Analysis of Changes in Winning Probabilities:

Sagan Tosu has improved its chances compared to the initial analysis. (+1.7%)

Montedio Yamagata has seen a decrease in its chances compared to the initial analysis. (-2.1%)

ML Model estimates a lower probability for Sagan Tosu than the current prediction. (-1.3%)

ML Model estimates a higher probability for Montedio Yamagata than the current prediction. (+1.7%)

Who will win by Users?

1	X	2
68.7%	25%	6.2%

Sagan Tosu - Montedio Yamagata Predictions

Users Predictions: 16 users predict this event. Tosu will win (votes: 11 - 68.8%). Montedio Yamagata will win (votes: 1 - 6.3%). It will Tie (votes: 4 - 25%).
Confidence interval (95%) for Tosu: 46.1% – 91.5%.

Over/Under & Asian Handicap Predictions by Selected Experts:

AH 0 - Tosu (1.70) (votes: 1 - 100%) .

Verified Performance Core (Selected Experts): Sagan Tosu will win (5 of 5 users predict this - 100%) 🥈 Silver Tip.

Overall Expert Consensus (including all markets): 6 Selected Experts predict this event. Tosu (votes: 6 - 100%).

Expected Score (Market Odds): 1:1

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Lineups

Starting Lineups
12. Izumori R. (G) 13. Inoue T. 37. Morishita R. 32. Ogawa S. 22. Matsuda E. 33. Nishiya K. 27. Sakurai T. 7. Arai H. 11. Nishikawa J. 77. Slivka V. 47. Shinkawa S.	31. Terakado R. (G) 6. Yamada T. 4. Nishimura K. 5. Abe T. 13. Nodake H. 17. Kato C. 7. Takae L. 88. Doi S. 20. Yoshio Kaina 90. Disaro A. S. 14. Sakamoto K.
Substitutes
18. Hino S. 44. Horigome Y. 4. Imazu Y. 23. Kitajima F. 2. Matsumoto N. 5. Nagasawa S. 19. Suzuki D. 91. Uehara M. 34. Yamada H.	11. Fujimoto Y. 1. Heward-Belle T. (G) 55. Horikane S. 42. Issaka Z. 15. Kawai A. 25. Kokubu S. 8. Konishi Y. 3. Kumamoto Y. 9. Takahashi J.
Coaches
Kogiku A.	Watanabe S.

Key Events of the Match

1st Half (2 - 0)
19', 1 - 0, Inoue T. ⚽,
31', 2 - 0, Nishikawa J. (Pen),
2nd Half (0 - 1)
46', Nodake H. ↓, Fujimoto Y. ↑,
46', Yamada T. ↓, Kawai A. ↑,
64', Shinkawa S. ↓, Suzuki D. ↑,
64', Matsuda E. ↓, Uehara M. ↑,
64', Sakurai T. ↓, Matsumoto N. ↑,
68', Doi S. ↓, Takahashi J. ↑,
78', Ogawa S. 🟨,
78', Yoshio Kaina 🟨,
79', Yoshio Kaina ↓, Issaka Z. ↑,
79', Disaro A. S. ↓, Horikane S. ↑,
79', Nishikawa J. ↓, Horigome Y. ↑,
87', Arai H. ↓, Imazu Y. ↑,
88', Nishimura K. 🟨,
90+1', 2 - 1, Horikane S. ⚽, Kato C. (A),
90+4', Suzuki D. 🟨,

Preview

This time we will watch a game between teams from the middle of a tournament table (ranked 8 and 10).

One and the other team get a very uncertain game.

The chances to win of two teams are almost the same in this match.

Last 3 head-to-head matches Tosu won 3 matches, drawn 0 matches, lost 0 matches and goals 8:4 (average 2.7:1.3).

Including matches at home between the teams Tosu won 2 matches, drawn 0 matches, lost 0 matches and goals 5:3 (average 2.5:1.5).

Form

✺ - easy match; ✺ - difficult match;

- Sagan Tosu
Japan J2 League
19.04.25	Sagan Tosu - Renofa Yamaguchi	2:2 ✺
13.04.25	V-Varen Nagasaki - Sagan Tosu	0:2 ✺
05.04.25	Sagan Tosu - Fujieda MYFC	1:0 ✺
30.03.25	Roasso Kumamoto - Sagan Tosu	3:1 ✺
Japan J League Cup
26.03.25	Matsumoto Yamaga - Sagan Tosu	1:0 ET ✺
Form Coefficient (based on results and difficulties of last matches) - 12.4 TWWLL
- Montedio Yamagata
Japan J2 League
19.04.25	Montedio Yamagata - Ehime	2:3 ✺
12.04.25	Iwaki - Montedio Yamagata	0:1 ✺
Japan J League Cup
09.04.25	Montedio Yamagata - Kyoto Sanga	0:1 ✺
Japan J2 League
05.04.25	Montedio Yamagata - Júbilo Iwata	0:0 ✺
30.03.25	Imabari - Montedio Yamagata	2:2 ✺
Form Coefficient (based on results and difficulties of last matches) - 6.4 LWLTT

Latest Head to Head

Japan Emperors Cup
14.11.15	Sagan Tosu - Montedio Yamagata	4:3
Japan J1 League
16.08.15	Montedio Yamagata - Sagan Tosu	1:3
12.04.15	Sagan Tosu - Montedio Yamagata	1:0

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