Match Info

J2 League - Round 9

Date: 13 April 2025, Sunday

Location: Peace Stadium (Nagasaki)

Where to Watch on TV:


Japan	DAZN Japan


	V-Varen Nagasaki		Sagan Tosu

	1	X	2
	1.8	3.7	4	Watch
	1.77	3.4	3.8
	1.81	3.6	4	Watch
	1.81	3.65	4.18	Watch
	1.85	3.4	3.8
	1.78	3.68	4.02	Watch
	1.81	3.6	4
Avarage Now (Initially)	1.8 ↑ (1.63)	3.58 ↓ (4)	3.97 ↓ (4.1)

The most likely Over/Under: 2.50

The best margin for this event is 6.6%, offered by

#Advertisement. For Live Stream GEO restrictions apply. Funded account required. GamblingTherapy.org. 18+

Current Win Probability

V-Varen Nagasaki
51%

Draw
25.8%

Sagan Tosu
23.2%

Initial Probability

(when we started the analysis)

55.4%

22.6%

22%

Our Initial ML Estimation

58%

21.6%

21%

Analysis of Changes in Winning Probabilities:

V-Varen Nagasaki has seen a decrease in its chances compared to the initial analysis. (-4.4%)

Sagan Tosu has improved its chances compared to the initial analysis. (+1.2%)

ML Model estimates a higher probability for V-Varen Nagasaki than the current prediction. (+7%)

Note: The ML model's higher estimate suggests a strong performance forecast for V-Varen Nagasaki, possibly due to key factors that the model accounted for.

ML Model estimates a lower probability for Sagan Tosu than the current prediction. (-2.2%)

Who will win by Users?

1	X	2
100%	0%	0%

V Varen Nagasaki - Sagan Tosu Predictions

Over/Under & Asian Handicap Predictions by Selected Experts:

EH +1 - Tosu (1.92) (votes: 1 - 100%) .

Users Predictions: V-Varen Nagasaki will win (7 of 7 users predict this - 100%).
Confidence interval (95%): 100% – 100%.

Overall Expert Consensus (including all markets): 1 Selected Experts predict this event. Tosu (votes: 1 - 100%).

Expected Score (Market Odds): 2:1

#ad

Lineups

Starting Lineups
21. Goto M. (G) 3. Sekiguchi M. 25. Kushibiki K. 4. Dudu Giusti 17. Takahata K. 24. Yamada R. 34. Matsumoto T. 14. Nagura T. 8. Masuyama A. 10. Matheus Jesus 7. Marcos Guilherme	12. Izumori R. (G) 13. Inoue T. 37. Morishita R. 32. Ogawa S. 22. Matsuda E. 33. Nishiya K. 27. Sakurai T. 7. Arai H. 11. Nishikawa J. 77. Slivka V. 34. Yamada H.
Substitutes
36. Aoki S. 29. Arai I. 31. Harada G. (G) 9. Juanma Delgado 13. Kato M. 19. Sawada T. 48. Teruyama H. 18. Yamasaki R. 23. Yoneda S.	18. Hino S. 44. Horigome Y. 4. Imazu Y. 23. Kitajima F. 2. Matsumoto N. 5. Nagasawa S. 47. Shinkawa S. 35. Uchiyama K. (G) 91. Uehara M.
Coaches
Shimotaira T.	Kogiku A.

Key Events of the Match

1st Half (0 - 1)
19', Kushibiki K. 🟨,
30', Slivka V. 🟨,
31', 0 - 1, Yamada H. ⚽, Slivka V. (A),
2nd Half (0 - 1)
50', Yamada R. ↓, Kato M. ↑,
60', Dudu Giusti ↓, Arai I. ↑,
60', Nagura T. ↓, Sawada T. ↑,
64', Matsuda E. ↓, Uehara M. ↑,
66', Juanma Delgado 🟨,
73', 0 - 2, Yamada H. ⚽, Sakurai T. (A),
76', Masuyama A. ↓, Aoki S. ↑,
76', Sakurai T. ↓, Matsumoto N. ↑,
76', Slivka V. ↓, Hino S. ↑,
76', Takahata K. ↓, Yoneda S. ↑,
78', Yamada H. 🟨,
80', Arai H. ↓, Imazu Y. ↑,
80', Yamada H. ↓, Shinkawa S. ↑,
90+6', Yoneda S. 🟨,

Preview

Watch a battle-game between leader and a mid-table team (ranked 6 in the zone Promotion ~ J2 League (Promotion: ) and 15).

Two teams are playing changeable.

Tosu could have advantage in physics - more days for rest in last days.

In this match V-Varen Nagasaki is a favorite.

Last 4 head-to-head matches V-Varen Nagasaki won 1 matches, drawn 1 matches, lost 2 matches and goals 6:7 (average 1.5:1.8).

Including matches at home between the teams V-Varen Nagasaki won 1 matches, drawn 1 matches, lost 0 matches and goals 5:4 (average 2.5:2).

Form

✺ - easy match; ✺ - difficult match;

- V-Varen Nagasaki
Japan J League Cup
09.04.25	V-Varen Nagasaki - Shonan Bellmare	1:2 ET ✺
Japan J2 League
06.04.25	Imabari - V-Varen Nagasaki	4:1 ✺
30.03.25	Fujieda MYFC - V-Varen Nagasaki	3:2 ✺
Japan J League Cup
26.03.25	Thespakusatsu Gunma - V-Varen Nagasaki	1:4 ET ✺
Japan J2 League
23.03.25	V-Varen Nagasaki - Blaublitz Akita	5:1 ✺
Form Coefficient (based on results and difficulties of last matches) - 3.6 LLLWW
- Sagan Tosu
Japan J2 League
05.04.25	Sagan Tosu - Fujieda MYFC	1:0 ✺
30.03.25	Roasso Kumamoto - Sagan Tosu	3:1 ✺
Japan J League Cup
26.03.25	Matsumoto Yamaga - Sagan Tosu	1:0 ET ✺
Japan J2 League
23.03.25	Sagan Tosu - Kataller Toyama	1:0 ✺
15.03.25	Sagan Tosu - Omiya Ardija	1:0 ✺
Form Coefficient (based on results and difficulties of last matches) - 10.4 WLLWW

Latest Head to Head

Japan J1 League
04.11.18	Sagan Tosu - V-Varen Nagasaki	1:0
Japan J League Cup
09.05.18	Sagan Tosu - V-Varen Nagasaki	2:1
04.04.18	V-Varen Nagasaki - Sagan Tosu	3:2
Japan J1 League
03.03.18	V-Varen Nagasaki - Sagan Tosu	2:2

Upcoming Matches