Match Info

JAPAN: J1 League - Round 32

Date: 28 September 2024, Saturday

Location: Ekimae Real Estate Stadium (Tosu)

Where to Watch on TV:


China	K-Ball, QQ Sports
Japan	DAZN Japan


	Sagan Tosu		Avispa Fukuoka

	1	X	2
	3	3.1	2.5	Watch
	2.9	3.1	2.45
	2.92	3.07	2.43	Watch
	3.04	3.17	2.57
	2.99	3.16	2.51	Watch
	2.8	3.25	2.3
	2.95	3.28	2.48	Watch
	2.95	3.1	2.45
Avarage Now (Initially)	2.94 ↑ (2.92)	3.15 ↓ (3.29)	2.46 (2.46)

The most likely Over/Under: 2.25

The best margin for this event is 3.4%, offered by

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Current Win Probability

Sagan Tosu
32%

Draw
29.8%

Avispa Fukuoka
38.2%

Initial Probability

(when we started the analysis)

32.5%

28.9%

38.6%

Our Initial ML Estimation

32.5%

28.9%

38.6%

Analysis of Changes in Winning Probabilities:

Sagan Tosu has seen a decrease in its chances compared to the initial analysis. (-0.5%)

Avispa Fukuoka has seen a decrease in its chances compared to the initial analysis. (-0.4%)

ML Model estimates a higher probability for Sagan Tosu than the current prediction. (+0.5%)

ML Model estimates a higher probability for Avispa Fukuoka than the current prediction. (+0.4%)

Who will win by Users?

1	X	2
20%	20%	60%

Sagan Tosu - Avispa Fukuoka Predictions

Users Predictions: 5 users predict this event. Tosu will win (votes: 1 - 20%). Avispa Fukuoka will win (votes: 3 - 60%). It will Tie (votes: 1 - 20%).

Expected Score (Market Odds): 1:1

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Lineups

Starting Lineups
71. Park Il-gyu (G) 42. Harada W. 2. Yamazaki K. 3. Kimura S. 33. Nishiya K. 24. Kubo T. 8. Nakahara H. 77. Slivka V. 6. Fukuta A. 22. Togashi C. 18. Hino S.	1. Nagaishi T. (G) 33. Grolli D. 37. Tashiro M. 5. Miya D. 16. Oda I. 30. Shigemi M. 6. Mae H. 29. Maejima Y. 8. Konno K. 18. Iwasaki Y. 17. Wellington
Substitutes
4. Imazu Y. 70. Jaja 55. Kiyotake H. 99. Marcelo Ryan 31. Okamoto M. (G) 32. Sakaiya K. 37. Terayama T.	4. Inoue S. 19. Kamekawa M. 7. Kanamori T. 88. Matsuoka D. 31. Murakami M. (G) 27. Sato R. 9. Zahedi S.
Coaches
Kitani K.	Hasebe S.

Key Events of the Match

1st Half (0 - 0)
4', Tashiro M. 🟨,
33', Konno K. 🟨,
2nd Half (0 - 0)
58', Nakahara H. ↓, Kiyotake H. ↑,
60', Iwasaki Y. ↓, Kanamori T. ↑,
60', Wellington ↓, Zahedi S. ↑,
71', Kubo T. ↓, Sakaiya K. ↑,
71', Konno K. ↓, Sato R. ↑,
71', Togashi C. ↓, Marcelo Ryan ↑,
79', Sakaiya K. 🟨,
81', Slivka V. ↓, Terayama T. ↑,
81', Hino S. ↓, Jaja ↑,
82', Shigemi M. ↓, Matsuoka D. ↑,
82', Oda I. ↓, Kamekawa M. ↑,
84', Miya D. 🟨,

Preview

A team from the mid-table and an outsider will play in this match (ranked 20 in the zone Relegation ~ J2 League and 13).

Last 5 head-to-head matches Tosu won 0.

Tosu has a chain of defeats in the last matches (in the last 5 games wins - 0).

Avispa Fukuoka is in unsatisfactory shape now (in the last 5 games wins - 0).

Tosu could have advantage in physics - more days for rest in last days.

In this match the chances to achieve triumph for both teams are almost equal.

Last 13 head-to-head matches Tosu won 3 matches, drawn 5 matches, lost 5 matches and goals 9-16.

Including matches at home between the teams Tosu won 2 matches, drawn 2 matches, lost 2 matches and goals 4-4.

Form

✺ - easy match; ✺ - difficult match;

- Sagan Tosu
Japan J1 League
22.09.24	Tokyo Verdy - Sagan Tosu	2:0 ✺
13.09.24	Kawasaki Frontale - Sagan Tosu	3:2 ✺
31.08.24	Sagan Tosu - Shonan Bellmare	1:2 ✺
25.08.24	Vissel Kobe - Sagan Tosu	2:0 ✺
Japan Emperors Cup
21.08.24	Sagan Tosu - Renofa Yamaguchi	0:2 ✺
Form Coefficient (based on results and difficulties of last matches) - 0 LLLLL
- Avispa Fukuoka
Japan J1 League
21.09.24	Júbilo Iwata - Avispa Fukuoka	0:0 ✺
14.09.24	Avispa Fukuoka - Machida Zelvia	0:3 ✺
01.09.24	Avispa Fukuoka - Vissel Kobe	0:2 ✺
24.08.24	Gamba Osaka - Avispa Fukuoka	2:2 ✺
17.08.24	Avispa Fukuoka - Albirex Niigata	0:1 ✺
Form Coefficient (based on results and difficulties of last matches) - 5 TLLTL

Latest Head to Head

Japan J1 League
16.06.24	Avispa Fukuoka - Sagan Tosu	2:0
06.08.23	Sagan Tosu - Avispa Fukuoka	0:1
14.05.23	Avispa Fukuoka - Sagan Tosu	0:0
26.08.22	Sagan Tosu - Avispa Fukuoka	1:1
01.04.22	Avispa Fukuoka - Sagan Tosu	0:0
25.09.21	Avispa Fukuoka - Sagan Tosu	3:0
Japan Emperors Cup
07.07.21	Sagan Tosu - Avispa Fukuoka	1:0

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