Match Info

J.League Cup - First stage - 1/32-finals

Date: 29 September 2026, Tuesday

Location: Ekimae Real Estate Stadium (Tosu)


	Sagan Tosu		Tokyo Verdy

	1	X	2
	3.1	3.1	2.15	Watch
	3.50	3.10	1.93
	3.15	3.2	2.15	Watch
	3.23	3.51	2.26
	3.13	3.35	2.22
	3.05	3.4	2.19
	3.08	3.32	2.21	Watch
	3.05	3.15	2.11
Avarage Now (Initially)	3.16 ↓ (3.25)	3.27 ↑ (3.21)	2.15 ↑ (2.07)

The most likely Over/Under: 2.25

The best margin for this event is 3.7%, offered by

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Current Win Probability

Sagan Tosu
29.1%

Draw
28.2%

Tokyo Verdy
42.7%

Initial Probability (when we started the analysis)

27.9%

28.3%

43.8%

Our Initial ML Estimation

28.3%

27.9%

43.2%

Analysis of Changes in Winning Probabilities:

Sagan Tosu has improved its chances compared to the initial analysis. (+1.2%)

Tokyo Verdy has seen a decrease in its chances compared to the initial analysis. (-1.1%)

ML Model estimates a lower probability for Sagan Tosu than the current prediction. (-0.8%)

ML Model estimates a higher probability for Tokyo Verdy than the current prediction. (+0.5%)

Who will win by Users?

1	X	2
14.3%	42.9%	42.9%

Sagan Tosu - Tokyo Verdy Predictions

Users Predictions: 7 users predict this event. Tosu will win (votes: 1 - 14.3%). Tokyo Verdy will win (votes: 3 - 42.9%). It will Tie (votes: 3 - 42.9%).

Verified Performance Core (Selected Experts): 1 Selected Experts predict this event. Tie (votes: 1 - 100%).

Expected Score (Market Odds): 1:1

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Lineups

Starting Lineups
12. Matsubara S. (G) 3. Kamiyama K. 37. Morishita R. 26. Ando T. 43. Yoshino K. 24. Yamauchi K. 2. Matsumoto N. 7. Sakamoto K. 20. Nakahara H. 16. Nishizawa K. 10. Suzuki D.	1. Matheus (G) 4. Hayashi N. 29. Sako M. 15. Suzuki K. 14. Fukuda Y. 8. Saito K. 2. Shibato K. 40. Arai Y. 19. Fujimoto K. 38. Kanda S. 9. Someno I.
Substitutes
44. Abe K. 31. Fujishima E. (G) 42. Goto H. 4. Imazu Y. 47. Izawa R. 13. Jojo K. 41. Matsuoka H. 11. Shiohama R. 28. Yoshida M.	16. Hirakawa R. 5. Inoue R. 25. Kumatoriya I. 7. Matsuhashi Y. 18. Mizoguchi S. 21. Nagasawa Y. (G) 27. Shirai R. 13. Yamada G. 28. Yamamoto J.

Key Events of the Match

1st Half (0 - 0)
19', Morishita R. 🟨,
31', Sako M. 🟨,
37', Suzuki D. ↓, Goto H. ↑,
2nd Half (1 - 1)
46', Sakamoto K. ↓, Shiohama R. ↑,
52', 1 - 0, Shiohama R. ⚽, Nakahara H. (A),
57', Kanda S. ↓, Shirai R. ↑,
57', Shibato K. ↓, Yamamoto J. ↑,
58', Arai Y. 🟨,
60', 1 - 1, Fujimoto K. ⚽,
62', Yoshino K. ↓, Yoshida M. ↑,
62', Nakahara H. ↓, Izawa R. ↑,
80', Saito K. ↓, Hirakawa R. ↑,
80', Fujimoto K. ↓, Kumatoriya I. ↑,
86', Matsumoto N. ↓, Matsuoka H. ↑,
87', Arai Y. ↓, Mizoguchi S. ↑,
90+4', Fukuda Y. 🟨,
Extra Time (1 - 0)
91', Hayashi N. ↓, Inoue R. ↑,
101', Yamauchi K. ↓, Jojo K. ↑,
107', 2 - 1, Shiohama R. ⚽,
114', Fujishima E. 🟨,

Preview

Recent results have been tough for Tosu (last 5 matches: 1 win).

Performances by Tokyo Verdy have been somewhat unpredictable lately (last 5 matches: 1 win).

Tosu may face physical fatigue compared to their opponent, having played more matches in recent days.

Tokyo Verdy is expected to hold a slight competitive edge in this match.

In the last 3 head-to-head meetings, Tosu has recorded 0 wins, 0 draws, and 3 losses, with a goal aggregate of 0:5 (averaging 0:1.7 goals per game).

Specifically in home fixtures for Tosu against this opponent, the record stands at 0 wins, 0 draws, and 1 loss, with 0:2 goals.

Outrights of Japan J League Cup for now

Verdy: 0.37%

Last Results with these Odds

Sagan Tosu - the odds 3.25 are the expected chance of winning is 27.93%, but this team recently wins 15% of matches with these odds.

Form

✺ - easy match; ✺ - difficult match;

- Sagan Tosu
Japan J2 League
26.09.26	Montedio Yamagata - Sagan Tosu	2:0 ✺
Japan Emperors Cup
23.09.26	Vissel Kobe - Sagan Tosu	1:0 ✺
Japan J2 League
19.09.26	Sagan Tosu - Iwaki	1:3 ✺
12.09.26	Imabari - Sagan Tosu	1:0 ✺
05.09.26	Sagan Tosu - Tegevajaro Miyazaki	2:0 ✺
Form Coefficient (based on results and difficulties of last matches) - 3.6 LLLLW
- Tokyo Verdy
Japan J1 League
19.09.26	Urawa Red Diamonds - Tokyo Verdy	3:1 ✺
13.09.26	Tokyo Verdy - JEF United Chiba	1:1 ✺
Japan J League Cup
09.09.26	Reilac Shiga - Tokyo Verdy	0:1 ✺
Japan J1 League
06.09.26	Cerezo Osaka - Tokyo Verdy	0:0 ✺
02.09.26	Tokyo Verdy - Vissel Kobe	0:2 ✺
Form Coefficient (based on results and difficulties of last matches) - 6.6 LTWTL

Latest Head to Head

Japan Emperors Cup
16.07.25	Tokyo Verdy - Sagan Tosu	1:0
Japan J1 League
22.09.24	Tokyo Verdy - Sagan Tosu	2:0
03.05.24	Sagan Tosu - Tokyo Verdy	0:2

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