Match Info

J2/J3 League - Round 12

Date: 25 April 2026, Saturday

Location: Ekimae Real Estate Stadium (Tosu)

Where to Watch on TV:


China	K-Ball
Japan	AbemaTV, DAZN Japan


	Sagan Tosu		Reilac Shiga

	1	X	2
				Watch
	1.53	3.6	5.25
	1.44	3.9	6.1
	1.49	4.2	6.78
	1.46	4.17	6.81	Watch
	1.4	3.9	6.5
	1.43	3.88	7.03	Watch
Avarage Now (Initially)	1.46 ↓ (1.58)	3.94 ↓ (4.09)	6.41 ↑ (5.02)

The most likely Over/Under: 2.50

The best margin for this event is 5.7%, offered by

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Current Win Probability

Sagan Tosu
62.6%

Draw
23.2%

Reilac Shiga
14.2%

Initial Probability

(when we started the analysis)

58.8%

22.7%

18.5%

Our Initial ML Estimation

61.4%

21.7%

17.7%

Analysis of Changes in Winning Probabilities:

Sagan Tosu has improved its chances compared to the initial analysis. (+3.8%)

Reilac Shiga has seen a decrease in its chances compared to the initial analysis. (-4.3%)

ML Model estimates a lower probability for Sagan Tosu than the current prediction. (-1.2%)

ML Model estimates a higher probability for Reilac Shiga than the current prediction. (+3.5%)

Who will win by Users?

1	X	2
75%	0%	25%

Sagan Tosu - Reilac Shiga Predictions

Users Predictions: 4 users predict this event. Tosu will win (votes: 3 - 75%). Reilac Shiga will win (votes: 1 - 25%).

Expected Score (Market Odds): 1:0

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Lineups

Starting Lineups
12. Matsubara S. (G) 5. Nagasawa S. 4. Imazu Y. 33. Ogawa S. 22. Yuba K. 2. Matsumoto N. 6. Sakurai T. 7. Sakamoto K. 18. Hyon R. 16. Nishizawa K. 19. Suzuki D.	31. Kasahara S. (G) 2. Hirai S. 3. Miyagi M. 5. Nishiyama T. 15. Kikushima T. 26. Tsunoda S. 8. Nakamura K. 16. Suzuki S. 28. Tabei Y. 10. Hitomi T. 29. Hino T.
Substitutes
26. Ando T. 76. Isotani S. 1. Izumori R. (G) 3. Kamiyama K. 23. Kitajima F. 15. Sakai N. 14. Sakaiya K. 29. Tanaka Y. 20. Toyoda A.	18. Akiyama S. 77. Hojo S. 4. Ide K. 17. Kinoshita R. 7. Kubota K. 21. Kushibiki M. (G) 99. Okuda H. 23. Tatsuta S. 6. Yakushinji T.

Key Events of the Match

1st Half (1 - 0)
17', 1 - 0, Hyon R. ⚽,
2nd Half (1 - 0)
50', Miyagi M. 🟨,
59', Tabei Y. ↓, Hojo S. ↑,
73', Sakamoto K. ↓, Ando T. ↑,
73', Hyon R. ↓, Sakai N. ↑,
74', Kikushima T. ↓, Akiyama S. ↑,
74', Hitomi T. ↓, Tatsuta S. ↑,
74', Hino T. ↓, Okuda H. ↑,
81', Sakurai T. ↓, Toyoda A. ↑,
81', Yuba K. ↓, Sakaiya K. ↑,
82', 2 - 0, Nishizawa K. ⚽,
85', Nishizawa K. ↓, Tanaka Y. ↑,

Preview

One team leads the standings, the other sits mid-table (ranked 3 in the zone Promotion ~ J2/J3 League (Placement matches: ) and 7 in the zone Promotion ~ J2/J3 League (Placement matches: )).

Tosu is currently in amazing form (last 5 games: 4 wins).

Reilac Shiga's form has been unstable in recent games (in the last 5 games, wins – 2).

Recently, Tosu has had a series of away games.

Recently, Reilac Shiga has had a series of home games.

In this match, Tosu is considered a favorite.

We predict that Tosu will win today's game, with odds of 1.52.

In the last 1 head-to-head match, Tosu won 1 match, drew 0 matches, lost 0 matches, and goals 2:0.

Form

✺ - easy match; ✺ - difficult match;

- Sagan Tosu
Japan J2 J3 League
19.04.26	Roasso Kumamoto - Sagan Tosu	0:2 ✺
12.04.26	Giravanz Kitakyushu - Sagan Tosu	0:1 ✺
05.04.26	Sagan Tosu - Oita Trinita	0:1 ✺
29.03.26	Gainare Tottori - Sagan Tosu	0:2 ✺
22.03.26	Reilac Shiga - Sagan Tosu	0:2 ✺
Form Coefficient (based on results and difficulties of last matches) - 10.7 WWLWW
- Reilac Shiga FC
Japan J2 J3 League
19.04.26	Reilac Shiga - Oita Trinita	0:3 ✺
12.04.26	Reilac Shiga - Ryūkyū	2:1 ✺
29.03.26	Reilac Shiga - Tegevajaro Miyazaki	1:0 ✺
22.03.26	Reilac Shiga - Sagan Tosu	0:2 ✺
15.03.26	Kagoshima United - Reilac Shiga	1:0 ✺
Form Coefficient (based on results and difficulties of last matches) - 11.8 LWWLL

Latest Head to Head

Japan J2 J3 League
22.03.26	Reilac Shiga - Sagan Tosu	0:2

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