Match Info

Date: 15 October 2026, Thursday


	Saint-Gilloise		Real Sociedad

	1	X	2
	2.25	3.40	2.88
	2.30	3.60	2.87
	2.38	3.40	2.90
	2.30	3.64	2.97
	2.29	3.6	2.96
	2.23	3.60	3.00
Avarage Now (Initially)	2.29 ↓ (2.3)	3.54 ↑ (3.52)	2.93 ↑ (2.92)

The most likely Over/Under: 2.75

The best margin for this event is 4.6%, offered by

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Current Win Probability

Saint-Gilloise
41.2%

Draw
26.6%

Real Sociedad
32.2%

Initial Probability

(when we started the analysis)

40.9%

26.8%

32.3%

Our Initial ML Estimation

42.6%

25.7%

31%

Analysis of Changes in Winning Probabilities:

Saint-Gilloise has improved its chances compared to the initial analysis. (+0.3%)

Real Sociedad has seen a decrease in its chances compared to the initial analysis. (-0.1%)

ML Model estimates a higher probability for Saint-Gilloise than the current prediction. (+1.4%)

ML Model estimates a lower probability for Real Sociedad than the current prediction. (-1.2%)

Who will win by Users?

1	X	2
0%	0%	0%

Saint Gilloise - Real Sociedad Predictions

Expected Score (Market Odds): 1:1

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Preview

Union SG is currently on a high with consecutive positive results (last 5 matches: 5 wins).

Real Sociedad has shown an inconsistent pattern in recent weeks (last 5 matches: 2 wins).

Union SG could enjoy a physical edge thanks to more rest days ahead of this match.

Recently, Union SG has faced a series of away games on the road.

The probabilities of winning are closely matched between the two contenders.

These two teams have no recorded direct encounters in recent history.

Outrights of UEFA Europa League for now

Real Sociedad: 4.6% Royale Union SG: 1.55%

Standings

League phase

		Pl	W	D	L		Diff	Pts
5	Royale Union SG	1	1	0	0	3:0	3	3
22	Real Sociedad	1	0	0	1	1:2	-1	0

Last Results with these Odds

Saint-Gilloise - the odds 2.3 are the expected chance of winning is 40.94%, but this team recently wins 30% of matches with these odds.

Real Sociedad - the odds 2.92 are the expected chance of winning is 32.29%, but this team recently wins 44% of matches with these odds.

Form

✺ - easy match; ✺ - difficult match;

- Royale Union Saint-Gilloise
Belgian Jupiler Pro League
20.09.26	Royal Antwerp - Saint-Gilloise	0:2 ✺
UEFA Europa League
17.09.26	Viktoria Plzeň - Saint-Gilloise	0:3 ✺
Belgian Jupiler Pro League
12.09.26	Saint-Gilloise - Lommel	5:0 ✺
05.09.26	Charleroi - Saint-Gilloise	2:3 ✺
02.09.26	Sint-Truidense - Saint-Gilloise	0:3 ✺
Form Coefficient (based on results and difficulties of last matches) - 11.1 WWWWW
- Real Sociedad
Club Friendly
02.10.26	Real Sociedad - Athletic Bilbao	0:1 ✺
Spanish LaLiga
20.09.26	Valencia - Real Sociedad	2:3 ✺
UEFA Europa League
17.09.26	Real Sociedad - Bournemouth	1:2 ✺
Spanish LaLiga
13.09.26	Real Sociedad - Atlético Madrid	0:3 ✺
07.09.26	Elche - Real Sociedad	2:3 ✺
Form Coefficient (based on results and difficulties of last matches) - 8.3 LWLLW

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