Match Info

Europa League - League phase - Round 2

Date: 15 October 2026, Thursday 🏁 Finished

Location: Den Dreef (Heverlee) 🌤️ ...

Referee: Kikacheishvili G. (Geo)

Where to Watch on TV:

Country	Kick-Off	TV Channels
Africa	—	DStv Now, SuperSport GOtv LaLiga, SuperSport LaLiga
Argentina	13:45	Disney+, ESPN 4
Armenia	20:45	Fast Sports 2, Fast Sports
Asia	—	beIN Connect MENA, beIN Sports MENA 6, Q Football Asia, TOD
Australia	03:45	Stan Sport
Austria	18:45	Sky Sport Austria 6
Belgium	18:45	Ketnet, Sporza, Sporza, VRT Canvas
Bolivia	12:45	ESPN 4
Bosnia And Herzegovina	18:45	Arena Sport 4
Canada	12:45	DAZN Canada
Colombia	11:45	ESPN 4
Croatia	18:45	Arena Sport 8, MAXtv To Go
Denmark	18:45	Disney+
Ecuador	11:45	ESPN 4
Estonia	19:45	Go3 Extra Sports
Finland	19:45	Viaplay
France	18:45	Canal+ Live 5
Hong Kong	00:45	beIN SPORTS MAX
Iceland	16:45	SÝN Sport Viaplay, Viaplay
Indonesia	23:45	beIN Connect, beIN SPORTS MAX, Vidio
Japan	01:45	Wowow Live
Kenya	19:45	Gotv
Laos	23:45	beIN Connect
Lithuania	19:45	Go3 Extra Sports
Malaysia	00:45	beIN Connect, beIN SPORTS MAX
Malta	18:45	GO TV, TSN Malta 4
Mexico	10:45	Disney+, ESPN 4
Mongolia	00:45	Premier Sports 4
New Zealand	05:45	DAZN New Zealand
Nigeria	17:45	SuperSport LaLiga
Norway	18:45	Viaplay
Paraguay	13:45	ESPN 4
Peru	11:45	Disney+, ESPN 4
Philippines	00:45	beIN Connect, beIN SPORTS MAX
Poland	18:45	Polsat Sport Extra 3, Polsat Sport Extra 4
Portugal	17:45	DAZN / App
Romania	19:45	Digi Online, Digi Sport 4, Orange TV Go, Prima Sport 4, Prima TV
Russia	19:45	Okko Sport
Serbia	18:45	Arena Sport 6
Singapore	00:45	beIN SPORTS MAX
South Africa	18:45	SuperSport La Liga, SuperSport Laliga
South America	—	ViX Latin America
Spain	18:45	M+ Liga de Campeones 3, M+ Liga de Campeones, Movistar Plus+
Sweden	18:45	Disney+
Switzerland	18:45	Blue Sport 17, Blue Sport 17
Thailand	23:45	beIN Connect, beIN SPORTS MAX
Turkey	19:45	Tabii Spor 3, Tabii
Ukraine	19:45	MEGOGO Futbol 6
United Kingdom	17:45	HBO Max, TNT Sports 7
Uruguay	13:45	Disney+
Usa	12:45	Paramount+
Venezuela	12:45	Disney+, ESPN 4, Inter


	Saint-Gilloise		Real Sociedad

	1	X	2
	2.60	3.60	2.63
	2.50	3.60	2.60
	2.50	3.70	2.65
	2.60	3.65	2.70
	2.59	3.75	2.64
	2.55	3.55	2.65
	2.74	3.61	2.50
	2.55	3.55	2.60
Avarage Now (Initially)	2.58 ↑ (2.3)	3.63 ↑ (3.52)	2.62 ↓ (2.92)

The most likely Over/Under: 2.75

The best margin for this event is 2.9%, offered by

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Current Win Probability

Saint-Gilloise
37.1%

Draw
26.4%

Real Sociedad
36.5%

Initial Probability (when we started the analysis)

40.9%

26.8%

32.3%

Our Initial ML Estimation

42.6%

25.7%

31%

Analysis of Changes in Winning Probabilities:

Saint-Gilloise has seen a decrease in its chances compared to the initial analysis. (-3.8%)

Real Sociedad has improved its chances compared to the initial analysis. (+4.2%)

ML Model estimates a higher probability for Saint-Gilloise than the current prediction. (+5.5%)

Note: The ML model's higher estimate suggests a strong performance forecast for Saint-Gilloise, possibly due to key factors that the model accounted for.

ML Model estimates a lower probability for Real Sociedad than the current prediction. (-5.5%)

Note: The ML model's lower estimate suggests a potential downturn for Real Sociedad, possibly due to injuries or other negative factors.

Who will win by Users?

1	X	2
62.5%	18.7%	18.7%

Saint Gilloise - Real Sociedad Predictions

Users Predictions: 16 users predict this event. Union SG will win (votes: 10 - 62.5%). Real Sociedad will win (votes: 3 - 18.8%). It will Tie (votes: 3 - 18.8%).
Confidence interval (95%) for Union SG: 38.8% – 86.2%.

Verified Performance Core (Selected Experts): 2 Selected Experts predict this event. Real Sociedad (votes: 2 - 100%).

Over/Under & Asian Handicap Predictions by Selected Experts:

BTTS - yes (1.51) (votes: 3 - 100%) 🥉 Bronze Tip.

DNB - Real Sociedad (1.92) (votes: 1 - 100%) .

O/U 2.5 - over (1.64) (votes: 2 - 100%) .

AH +1.5 - Union SG (1.16) (votes: 1 - 100%) .

New Consensus by Tipsters:

O/U 2.5 - over (1.52) (votes: 93%) ⭐ Best Value.

Overall Expert Consensus (including all markets): 4 Selected Experts predict this event. Union SG (votes: 1 - 25%). Real Sociedad (votes: 3 - 75%).

Expected Score (Market Odds): 1:1

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Lineups

Starting Lineups
12. Koffi H. (G) 4. Chibani N. 29. Sylla M. 55. Havenaar N. 6. Van De Perre K. (C) 27. Patris L. 23. Zeneli B. 28. Olaru D. 11. Guilherme Smith 9. Biondic M. 38. Mofokeng R.	13. Marrero U. (G) 5. Zubeldia I. 6. Martin J. 19. Sarr M. 17. Gomez S. 12. Ochieng J. 4. Gorrotxategi J. 21. Herrera Y. 11. Guedes G. 10. Oyarzabal M. (C) 24. Sucic L.
Substitutes
20. Aquino D. 1. Chambaere V. (G) 21. De Roeve D. 39. Hamoutahar Y. 18. Kavlashvili G. (G) 32. Keita S. 43. Tshilanda D.	7. Barrenetxea A. 22. Fort H. 14. Kubo T. 29. Marchal A. 15. Marin P. 3. Munoz A. 9. Oskarsson O. 16. Pacheco J. 1. Remiro A. (G) 18. Soler C. 8. Turrientes B. 23. Zakharyan A.
Coaches
Hubert D.	Matarazzo P.

Key Events of the Match

1st Half (0 - 0)
39', Hubert D. 🟨,
2nd Half (1 - 1)
46', Herrera Y. ↓, Turrientes B. ↑,
46', 0 - 1, Turrientes B. ⚽,
58', Chibani N. 🟨,
64', Chibani N. ↓, De Roeve D. ↑,
68', Sucic L. ↓, Kubo T. ↑,
71', Olaru D. ↓, Aquino D. ↑,
74', Sarr M. 🟨,
79', Ochieng J. ↓, Marin P. ↑,
79', Guedes G. ↓, Barrenetxea A. ↑,
84', Biondic M. ↓, Keita S. ↑,
88', 1 - 1, Keita S. ⚽,
90+2', Oyarzabal M. ↓, Oskarsson O. ↑,

Preview

Playing home matches at a different stadium - Den Dreef.

Union SG arrives with excellent momentum after picking up several victories (last 5 matches: 4 wins).

Real Sociedad has shown an inconsistent pattern in recent weeks (last 5 matches: 2 wins).

Union SG could enjoy a physical edge thanks to more rest days ahead of this match.

Recently, Real Sociedad has enjoyed a sequence of home fixtures.

The probabilities of winning are closely matched between the two contenders.

Confirmed absences for Union SG: Ait El Hadj A. (Off the roster) Florucz R. (Red Card) Hurtevent I. (Knock) Kricfalusi O. (Knock) Mac Allister K. (Knee Injury) Pavlic I. (Off the roster) Rodriguez K. (Muscle Injury) Sykes R. (Shoulder Injury) Zorgane A. (Red Card).

Confirmed absences for Real Sociedad: Aramburu J. (Muscle Injury) Beitia L. (Ankle Injury) Odriozola A. (Knee Injury).

Doubtful / questionable for Union SG: Schoofs R. (Knock).

These two teams have no recorded direct encounters in recent history.

Standings

League phase

		Pl	W	D	L		Diff	Pts
6	Royale Union SG	3	2	1	0	8:1	7	7
14	Real Sociedad	3	1	1	1	8:3	5	4

Outrights of UEFA Europa League for now

Real Sociedad: 3.92% Royale Union SG: 1.99%

Last Results with these Odds

Saint-Gilloise - the odds 2.3 are the expected chance of winning is 40.94%, but this team recently wins 30% of matches with these odds.

Real Sociedad - the odds 2.92 are the expected chance of winning is 32.29%, but this team recently wins 44% of matches with these odds.

Form

✺ - easy match; ✺ - difficult match;

- Royale Union Saint-Gilloise
Belgian Jupiler Pro League
11.10.26	Saint-Gilloise - Oud-Heverlee Leuven	1:1 ✺
20.09.26	Royal Antwerp - Saint-Gilloise	0:2 ✺
UEFA Europa League
17.09.26	Viktoria Plzeň - Saint-Gilloise	0:3 ✺
Belgian Jupiler Pro League
12.09.26	Saint-Gilloise - Lommel	5:0 ✺
05.09.26	Charleroi - Saint-Gilloise	2:3 ✺
Form Coefficient (based on results and difficulties of last matches) - 9 TWWWW
- Real Sociedad
Spanish LaLiga
11.10.26	Real Sociedad - Deportivo A Coruña	3:2 ✺
Club Friendly
02.10.26	Real Sociedad - Athletic Bilbao	0:1 ✺
Spanish LaLiga
20.09.26	Valencia - Real Sociedad	2:3 ✺
UEFA Europa League
17.09.26	Real Sociedad - Bournemouth	1:2 ✺
Spanish LaLiga
13.09.26	Real Sociedad - Atlético Madrid	0:3 ✺
Form Coefficient (based on results and difficulties of last matches) - 6.5 WLWLL

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