Match Info

Club Friendly

Date: 2 October 2026, Friday


	Real Sociedad		Athletic Bilbao

	1	X	2
	2.40	3.25	2.50
	2.38	3.20	2.63
	2.57	3.26	2.57
	2.54	3.37	2.64
	2.50	3.20	2.50
	2.54	3.53	2.54
	2.45	3.30	2.45
Avarage Now (Initially)	2.48 ↓ (2.64)	3.3 ↓ (3.62)	2.55 ↓ (2.7)

The most likely Over/Under: 2.50

The best margin for this event is 6.9%, offered by

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Current Win Probability

Real Sociedad
36.7%

Draw
27.6%

Athletic Bilbao
35.7%

Initial Probability

(when we started the analysis)

36.9%

26.9%

36.1%

Our Initial ML Estimation

38.6%

28.1%

34.5%

Analysis of Changes in Winning Probabilities:

Real Sociedad has seen a decrease in its chances compared to the initial analysis. (-0.2%)

Athletic Bilbao has seen a decrease in its chances compared to the initial analysis. (-0.4%)

ML Model estimates a higher probability for Real Sociedad than the current prediction. (+1.9%)

ML Model estimates a lower probability for Athletic Bilbao than the current prediction. (-1.2%)

Real Sociedad - Athletic Bilbao Predictions

Expected Score (Market Odds): 1:1

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Lineups

Starting Lineups
1. Remiro A. (G) 34. Beitia L. 4. Gorrotxategi J. 11. Guedes G. 29. Marchal A. 15. Marin P. 3. Munoz A. 16. Pacheco J. 35. Ruperez I. 8. Turrientes B. 23. Zakharyan A.	26. Santos M. (G) 5. Alvarez Y. 7. Berenguer A. 28. Canales P. 31. Louis-Jean J. 23. Navarro R. 4. Paredes A. 6. Prados Diaz B. 20. Rego A. 15. Rincon H. 21. Sannadi M.
Substitutes
. Aguirre I. . Balda J. . Barrenetxea A. . Carrera G. . Diaz D. . Fraga A. (G) . Gomez S. . Kita K. . Lebarbier A. . Marrero U. (G) . Soler C.	12. Areso J. 17. Berchiche Y. 27. Garcia S. (G) 24. Gerenabarrena B. 11. Guruzeta G. 18. Jauregizar M. 16. Ruiz de Galarreta I. 8. Sancet O. 22. Serrano N. 3. Vivian D. 9. Williams I.

Key Events of the Match

1st Half (0 - 0)
2nd Half (0 - 1)
54', 🟨,
59', 0 - 1, Sannadi M. ⚽,
60', 🟨,

Preview

In the last 5 head-to-head matches, Real Sociedad won 3.

Each of the two teams is seeking greater consistency after recent ups and downs.

The probabilities of winning are closely matched between the two contenders.

In the last 20 head-to-head meetings, Real Sociedad has recorded 10 wins, 4 draws, and 6 losses, with a goal aggregate of 24:21 (averaging 1.2:1.1 goals per game).

Specifically in home fixtures for Real Sociedad against this opponent, the record stands at 6 wins, 3 draws, and 0 losses, with 16:7 goals (averaging 1.8:0.8 per game).

Last Results with these Odds

Athletic Bilbao - the odds 2.7 are the expected chance of winning is 36.12%, but this team recently wins 50% of matches with these odds.

Form

✺ - easy match; ✺ - difficult match;

- Real Sociedad
Spanish LaLiga
20.09.26	Valencia - Real Sociedad	2:3 ✺
UEFA Europa League
17.09.26	Real Sociedad - Bournemouth	1:2 ✺
Spanish LaLiga
13.09.26	Real Sociedad - Atlético Madrid	0:3 ✺
07.09.26	Elche - Real Sociedad	2:3 ✺
03.09.26	Real Sociedad - Celta de Vigo	0:0 ✺
Form Coefficient (based on results and difficulties of last matches) - 9.6 WLLWT
- Athletic Bilbao
Spanish LaLiga
19.09.26	Athletic Bilbao - Deportivo Alavés	0:0 ✺
12.09.26	Athletic Bilbao - Elche	1:1 ✺
05.09.26	Athletic Bilbao - Atlético Madrid	3:0 ✺
30.08.26	Celta de Vigo - Athletic Bilbao	0:2 ✺
27.08.26	Barcelona - Athletic Bilbao	2:0 ✺
Form Coefficient (based on results and difficulties of last matches) - 8.7 TTWWL

Latest Head to Head

Spanish Copa del Rey
04.03.26	Real Sociedad - Athletic Bilbao	1:0
11.02.26	Athletic Bilbao - Real Sociedad	0:1
Spanish LaLiga
01.02.26	Athletic Bilbao - Real Sociedad	1:1
01.11.25	Real Sociedad - Athletic Bilbao	3:2
04.05.25	Real Sociedad - Athletic Bilbao	0:0
24.11.24	Athletic Bilbao - Real Sociedad	1:0
13.01.24	Athletic Bilbao - Real Sociedad	2:1

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