Match Info

Ligue 1 - Round 34

Date: 17 May 2025, Saturday

Location: Stade Geoffroy-Guichard (Saint-Étienne)

Referee: Leonard T. (Fra)

Where to Watch on TV:


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	Saint-Étienne		Toulouse

	1	X	2
	2.35	3.75	2.7	Watch
	2.25	3.6	2.9
	2.12	3.95	3.05
	2.17	4.01	3.16
	2.12	4.03	3.03	Watch
	2.05	3.9	2.9
	2.14	4.38	3.13	Watch
	2.12	3.95	3.05
Avarage Now (Initially)	2.17 ↓ (3.76)	3.95 ↑ (3.76)	2.99 ↑ (1.91)

The most likely Over/Under: 3.00

The best margin for this event is 1.5%, offered by

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Current Win Probability

Saint-Étienne
44%

Draw
24.1%

Toulouse
31.9%

Initial Probability

(when we started the analysis)

25.2%

49.6%

Our Initial ML Estimation

25.7%

24.7%

48.6%

Analysis of Changes in Winning Probabilities:

Saint-Étienne has improved its chances compared to the initial analysis. (+18.8%)

Note: This is a significant improvement in prediction, suggesting increased confidence in Saint-Étienne's performance.

Toulouse has seen a decrease in its chances compared to the initial analysis. (-17.7%)

Note: This is a significant drop in prediction, and Toulouse might be facing challenges that affect their performance.

ML Model estimates a lower probability for Saint-Étienne than the current prediction. (-18.3%)

Note: The ML model's lower estimate suggests that there may be underlying issues with Saint-Étienne that the model has picked up on.

ML Model estimates a higher probability for Toulouse than the current prediction. (+16.7%)

Note: The ML model's higher estimate suggests that Toulouse could outperform expectations, possibly based on recent matchups or player stats.

Who will win by Users?

1	X	2
88.1%	5.1%	6.8%

Saint Étienne - Toulouse Predictions

Users Predictions: 117 users predict this event. Saint-Étienne will win (votes: 103 - 88%). Toulouse will win (votes: 8 - 6.8%). It will Tie (votes: 6 - 5.1%).
Confidence interval (95%) for Saint-Étienne: 82.1% – 93.9%. The data is statistically significant.

Over/Under & Asian Handicap Predictions by Selected Experts:

DC - Toulouse (1.68) (votes: 2 - 100%) .

AH -0.5 - Saint-Étienne (2.13) (votes: 1 - 100%) .

O/U 3 - over (votes: 1 - 100%) .

Verified Performance Core (Selected Experts): Saint-Étienne will win (54 of 62 users predict this - 87.1%) 🥈 Silver Tip.

Overall Expert Consensus (including all markets): 65 Selected Experts predict this event. Saint-Étienne (votes: 55 - 84.6%). Toulouse (votes: 8 - 12.3%). Tie (votes: 2 - 3.1%).

Expected Score (Market Odds): 1:1

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Lineups

Starting Lineups
30. Larsonneur G. (C) 8. Appiah D. 13. Bernauer M. 3. Nade M. 19. Petrot L. 29. Moueffek A. 4. Ekwah P. 10. Tardieu F. 7. Cardona I. 25. Wadji I. 22. Davitashvili Z.	50. Restes G. (G) 29. Canvot J. 4. Cresswell C. 3. McKenzie M. 19. Sidibe D. 23. Casseres C. 8. Sierro V. (C) 12. Kamanzi W. 10. Gboho Y. 9. Magri F. 13. King J.
Substitutes
5. Abdelhamid Y. 21. Batubinsika D. 6. Bouchouari B. 17. Cornud P. 1. Maubleu B. (G) 28. Miladinovic I. 14. Mouton L. 63. N'Guessan D. 11. Old B.	7. Aboukhlal Z. 6. Akdag U. 80. Babicka S. 31. Edjouma N. 16. Haug K. (G) 22. Messali R. 39. Saka M. 21. Zajc M. 37. Zuliani E.
Coaches
Horneland E.	Martinez C.

Key Events of the Match

1st Half (1 - 2)
10', 0 - 1, Kamanzi W. ⚽, Gboho Y. (A),
15', 0 - 2, King J. ⚽, Magri F. (A),
23', Moueffek A. ↓, Bouchouari B. ↑,
30', Wadji I. 🟨,
38', 1 - 2, Tardieu F. ⚽,
2nd Half (1 - 1)
46', Bernauer M. ↓, Batubinsika D. ↑,
58', 1 - 3, Gboho Y. ⚽, King J. (A),
59', King J. ↓, Aboukhlal Z. ↑,
63', 2 - 3, Batubinsika D. ⚽, Davitashvili Z. (A),
69', Wadji I. ↓, Old B. ↑,
70', Davitashvili Z. 🟨,
70', Casseres C. 🟨,
72', Sidibe D. ↓, Messali R. ↑,
83', Cardona I. ↓, N'Guessan D. ↑,
84', Bouchouari B. 🟨,
86', Kamanzi W. ↓, Akdag U. ↑,
86', Magri F. ↓, Babicka S. ↑,
90', Restes G. 🟨,

Preview

A mid-table team and an outsider will play in this match (ranked 17 in the zone Relegation ~ Ligue 2 and 12).

In the last 5 head-to-head matches, Saint-Étienne won 3.

Both teams are showing inconsistent performances lately.

Saint-Étienne might have a minor edge in this game.

There will not play in Saint-Étienne: Boakye A. (Ankle Injury) Stassin L. (Muscle Injury)

There will not play in Toulouse: Donnum A. (Injury) Nicolaisen R. (Calf Injury) Schmidt N. (Knee Injury) Suazo G. (Injury)

In the last 17 head-to-head matches, Saint-Étienne won 5 matches, drew 7 matches, lost 5 matches, and goals 20:16. (average 1.2:0.9).

Including home matches between the teams, Saint-Étienne won 2 matches, drew 4 matches, lost 2 matches, and goals 9:7. (average 1.1:0.9).

Form

✺ - easy match; ✺ - difficult match;

- AS Saint-Étienne
French Ligue 1
10.05.25	Reims - Saint-Étienne	0:2 ✺
03.05.25	Saint-Étienne - Monaco	1:3 ✺
26.04.25	Strasbourg - Saint-Étienne	3:1 ✺
20.04.25	Saint-Étienne - Lyon	2:1 ✺
13.04.25	Saint-Étienne - Brest	3:3 ✺
Form Coefficient (based on results and difficulties of last matches) - 19 WLLWT
- Toulouse FC
French Ligue 1
10.05.25	Toulouse - Lens	1:1 ✺
03.05.25	Toulouse - Rennes	2:1 ✺
27.04.25	Nantes - Toulouse	0:0 ✺
20.04.25	Reims - Toulouse	1:0 ✺
12.04.25	Toulouse - Lille	1:2 ✺
Form Coefficient (based on results and difficulties of last matches) - 5.4 TWTLL

Latest Head to Head

French Ligue 1
13.12.24	Toulouse - Saint-Étienne	2:1
15.09.19	Saint-Étienne - Toulouse	2:2
28.04.19	Saint-Étienne - Toulouse	2:0
25.09.18	Toulouse - Saint-Étienne	2:3
14.01.18	Saint-Étienne - Toulouse	2:0
29.10.17	Toulouse - Saint-Étienne	0:0
29.01.17	Toulouse - Saint-Étienne	0:3

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