Match Info

Ligue 1 - Round 34

Date: 17 May 2026, Sunday

Location: Stade de la Beaujoire (Nantes)

Referee: Frappart S. (Fra)

Where to Watch on TV:


Africa	CANAL+ Sport 2
Argentina	Disney+
Armenia	Fast Sports
Asia	beIN Connect MENA, beIN Sports MENA Xtra 1, beIN Sports MENA Xtra 1, beIN Sports MENA Xtra 1, TOD
Austria	DAZN
Brazil	Caze TV
Chile	Disney+
China	Migu, QQ Sports, ZhiBo8
Colombia	Disney+
Denmark	Viaplay
Finland	Viaplay
France	DAZN France, Ligue 1+, Molotov TV
Germany	DAZN Deutsch
Hong-kong	beIN SPORTS MAX
Italy	Ligue 1+
Japan	DAZN Japan
Mexico	FOX One
Netherlands	Viaplay
North-central-america	Disney+ Caribbean
North-macedonia	MaxTV GO
Norway	TV2 Play, Viaplay
Peru	Disney+
Romania	Voyo
Russia	Okko Sport
Serbia	Arena Sport 4, Arena Sport 6
South-korea	Coupang Play
Spain	DAZN Espana
Sweden	Viaplay
Switzerland	DAZN Switzerland
Turkey	beIN Connect
Ukraine	MEGOGO Futbol 14
United-kingdom	Ligue 1+
Uruguay	Disney+
Venezuela	Disney+
World	Onefootball


	Nantes		Toulouse

	1	X	2
	2.75	3.4	2.5	Watch
	2.55	3.4	2.65
				Watch
	2.84	3.65	2.53
	2.61	3.51	2.6	Watch
	2.63	3.4	2.45
	2.84	3.71	2.54	Watch
Avarage Now (Initially)	2.7 ↑ (2.68)	3.51 ↑ (3.19)	2.55 ↓ (2.68)

The most likely Over/Under: 2.75

The best margin for this event is 1.5%, offered by

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Current Win Probability

Nantes
35.3%

Draw
27.2%

Toulouse
37.5%

Initial Probability

(when we started the analysis)

35.2%

29.6%

35.2%

Our Initial ML Estimation

35%

29.8%

35.4%

Analysis of Changes in Winning Probabilities:

Nantes has improved its chances compared to the initial analysis. (+0.1%)

Toulouse has improved its chances compared to the initial analysis. (+2.3%)

ML Model estimates a lower probability for Nantes than the current prediction. (-0.3%)

ML Model estimates a lower probability for Toulouse than the current prediction. (-2.1%)

Who will win by Users?

1	X	2
17.6%	52.9%	29.4%

Nantes - Toulouse Predictions

Users Predictions: 17 users predict this event. Nantes will win (votes: 3 - 17.6%). Toulouse will win (votes: 5 - 29.4%). It will Tie (votes: 9 - 52.9%).
Confidence interval (95%) for a draw: 29.2% – 76.6%.

Over/Under & Asian Handicap Predictions by Selected Experts:

O/U 2.5 - over (votes: 2 - 100%) .

AH 0 - Nantes (2.03) (votes: 1 - 100%) .

Overall Expert Consensus (including all markets): 1 Selected Experts predict this event. Nantes (votes: 1 - 100%).

Expected Score (Market Odds): 1:1

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Lineups

Starting Lineups
1. Lopes A. (C) 22. Acapandie M. 6. Awaziem C. 72. Doucoure S. 3. Cozza N. 20. Cabella R. 28. Sissoko I. 8. Lepenant J. 21. Kaba M. 10. Abline M. 37. Ganago I.	1. Restes G. (G) 3. McKenzie M. 35. Koumbassa S. 2. Nicolaisen R. (C) 19. Sidibe D. 18. Demba P. 23. Casseres C. 24. Methalie D. 11. Hidalgo S. 10. Gboho Y. 20. Emersonn
Substitutes
2. Ali Youssef 30. Carlgren P. (G) 19. El Arabi Y. 11. Guirassy B. 65. Lamy H. 66. Leroux L. 46. Mongo E. 31. Mostafa Mohamed 17. Tabibou D.	44. Bakhouche Piernas G. 17. Francis A. 16. Haug K. (G) 12. Kamanzi W. 13. Russell-Rowe J. 40. Said Mchindra N. (G) 77. Sauer M. 7. Vignolo J. 45. Vossah A.
Coaches
Halilhodzic V.	Martinez C.

Key Events of the Match

1st Half (0 - 0)

Preview

The game between a mid-table team and the outsider (ranked 17 in the zone Relegation ~ Ligue 2 and 10).

Nantes is Relegated to Ligue 2

In the last 5 head-to-head matches, Nantes won 1.

Nantes is going through a rough patch (last 5 games: 1 wins).

Toulouse has been playing with ups and downs recently (in the last 5 games, wins – 2).

Toulouse may face physical challenges compared to their opponent, as they have played more matches in recent days.

In this match, both teams are almost equally likely to win.

There will not play in Nantes: Amian K. (Groin Injury) Centonze F. (Knee Injury) Coquelin F. (Injury) Guilbert F. (Knee Injury) Machado D. (Injury) Tati T. (Thigh Injury)

There will not play in Toulouse: Donnum A. (Red Card) Magri F. (Knee Injury) Messali R. (Ankle Injury)

In the last 20 head-to-head matches, Nantes won 8 matches, drew 7 matches, lost 5 matches, and goals 24:18. (average 1.2:0.9).

Including home matches between the teams, Nantes won 5 matches, drew 2 matches, lost 3 matches, and goals 16:12. (average 1.6:1.2).

Outrights of French Ligue 1 for now

Toulouse: 0.44%

Standings

		Pl	W	D	L		Diff	Pts
15	Toulouse	6	1	3	2	9:11	-2	6

Form

✺ - easy match; ✺ - difficult match;

- FC Nantes
French Ligue 1
08.05.26	Lens - Nantes	1:0 ✺
02.05.26	Nantes - Olympique Marseille	3:0 ✺
26.04.26	Rennes - Nantes	2:1 ✺
22.04.26	Paris Saint-Germain - Nantes	3:0 ✺
19.04.26	Nantes - Brest	1:1 ✺
Form Coefficient (based on results and difficulties of last matches) - 11.3 LWLLT
- Toulouse FC
French Ligue 1
10.05.26	Toulouse - Lyon	2:1 ✺
03.05.26	Strasbourg - Toulouse	1:2 ✺
25.04.26	Toulouse - Monaco	2:2 ✺
Coupe De France
21.04.26	Lens - Toulouse	4:1 ✺
French Ligue 1
17.04.26	Lens - Toulouse	3:2 ✺
Form Coefficient (based on results and difficulties of last matches) - 13.7 WWTLL

Latest Head to Head

French Ligue 1
27.09.25	Toulouse - Nantes	2:2
27.04.25	Nantes - Toulouse	0:0
18.08.24	Toulouse - Nantes	0:0
11.02.24	Toulouse - Nantes	1:2
13.08.23	Nantes - Toulouse	1:2
14.05.23	Toulouse - Nantes	0:0
Coupe De France
29.04.23	Nantes - Toulouse	1:5

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