Match Info

National League South - Round 10

Date: 4 October 2025, Saturday


	Salisbury		Torquay United

	1	X	2
	3.6	3.4	1.8
	3.6	3.5	1.9
	3.71	3.67	1.93
	10.71	5.21	1.27	Watch
	3.7	3.6	1.88
	3.7	3.5	1.84
Avarage Now (Initially)	4.84 ↑ (3.4)	3.81 ↑ (3.45)	1.77 ↓ (1.97)

The most likely Over/Under: 2.50

The best margin for this event is 6%, offered by

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Current Win Probability

Salisbury
20%

Draw
25.4%

Torquay United
54.6%

Initial Probability

(when we started the analysis)

26.9%

26.6%

46.5%

Our Initial ML Estimation

25.6%

25.3%

48.9%

Analysis of Changes in Winning Probabilities:

Salisbury has seen a decrease in its chances compared to the initial analysis. (-6.9%)

Note: This is a significant drop in prediction, indicating that Salisbury's form might have worsened.

Torquay United has improved its chances compared to the initial analysis. (+8.1%)

Note: This is a significant improvement in prediction, suggesting Torquay United's recent form is better than expected.

ML Model estimates a higher probability for Salisbury than the current prediction. (+5.6%)

Note: The ML model's higher estimate suggests a strong performance forecast for Salisbury, possibly due to key factors that the model accounted for.

ML Model estimates a lower probability for Torquay United than the current prediction. (-5.7%)

Note: The ML model's lower estimate suggests a potential downturn for Torquay United, possibly due to injuries or other negative factors.

Salisbury - Torquay United Predictions

Expected Score (Market Odds): 1:2

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Key Events of the Match

1st Half (0 - 1)
8', 0 - 1, Worthington M. ⚽,
2nd Half (0 - 0)

Preview

An outsider and one of the leaders will play in this match (ranked 23 in the zone Relegation and 3 in the zone Promotion ~ National League South (Play Offs: Semi~finals)).

Recent form of Salisbury has been disappointing (last 5 games: 0 wins).

In recent matches, Torquay has shown inconsistent performance (in the last 5 games, wins – 2).

Torquay may have a physical advantage due to more rest days in recent times.

In this match, Torquay is the team to beat.

In the last 2 head-to-head matches, Salisbury won 0 matches, drew 1 match, lost 1 match, and goals 2:3. (average 1:1.5).

Including home match between the teams, Salisbury won 0 matches, drew 0 matches, lost 1 match, and goals 0:1.

Form

✺ - easy match; ✺ - difficult match;

- Salisbury FC
English FA Cup
30.09.25	Dorking Wanderers - Salisbury	4:2 ✺
27.09.25	Salisbury - Dorking Wanderers	1:1 ✺
English National League South
20.09.25	Eastbourne Borough - Salisbury	0:0 ✺
06.09.25	Salisbury - Tonbridge Angels	1:3 ✺
02.09.25	Worthing - Salisbury	2:0 ✺
Form Coefficient (based on results and difficulties of last matches) - 2.9 LTTLL
- Torquay United
English National League South
20.09.25	Torquay United - Ebbsfleet United	1:0 ✺
English FA Cup
13.09.25	Totton - Torquay United	2:0 ✺
English National League South
06.09.25	Torquay United - Slough Town	4:2 ✺
02.09.25	Hampton & Richmond Borough - Torquay United	2:2 ✺
30.08.25	Hemel Hempstead Town - Torquay United	2:1 ✺
Form Coefficient (based on results and difficulties of last matches) - 3.2 WLWTL

Latest Head to Head

English National League South
11.03.25	Torquay United - Salisbury	2:2
05.11.24	Salisbury - Torquay United	0:1

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