Match Info

FINLAND: YKKONEN

Date: 17 June 2023, Saturday

Location: Salo Sports Park (Salo)


	Salon Palloilijat		Gnistan

	1	X	2
	2.88	3.2	2.3	Watch
	2.6	3.2	2.35
	2.7	3.4	2.35
	3	3.59	2.31
	2.8	3.1	2.3
	2.93	3.38	2.28
	2.8	3.25	2.3
Avarage Now (Initially)	2.82 ↑ (2.45)	3.3 ↑ (3.18)	2.31 ↓ (2.67)

The most likely Over/Under: 2.75

The best margin for this event is 4.5%, offered by

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Current Win Probability

Salon Palloilijat
32.6%

Draw
27.8%

Gnistan
39.7%

Initial Probability

(when we started the analysis)

37.1%

28.7%

34.2%

Our Initial ML Estimation

38.2%

29.6%

33.2%

Analysis of Changes in Winning Probabilities:

Salon Palloilijat has seen a decrease in its chances compared to the initial analysis. (-4.5%)

Gnistan has improved its chances compared to the initial analysis. (+5.5%)

Note: This is a significant improvement in prediction, suggesting Gnistan's recent form is better than expected.

ML Model estimates a higher probability for Salon Palloilijat than the current prediction. (+5.6%)

Note: The ML model's higher estimate suggests a strong performance forecast for Salon Palloilijat, possibly due to key factors that the model accounted for.

ML Model estimates a lower probability for Gnistan than the current prediction. (-6.5%)

Note: The ML model's lower estimate suggests a potential downturn for Gnistan, possibly due to injuries or other negative factors.

Who will win by Users?

1	X	2
11.5%	19.2%	69.2%

Salon Palloilijat - Gnistan Predictions

Users Predictions: 26 users predict this event. SalPa will win (votes: 3 - 11.5%). Gnistan will win (votes: 18 - 69.2%). It will Tie (votes: 5 - 19.2%).
Confidence interval (95%) for Gnistan: 51.5% – 86.9%.

Expected Score (Market Odds): 1:1

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Lineups

Starting Lineups
30. Osterlund T. (G) 3. Lehtisalo O. 24. Gronlund F. 17. John M. 23. Kepot D. 4. Louhela M. 15. Meura J. 14. Katajamaki P. 26. Ahmadi B. 11. Jakonen O. 8. Huhtala J.	33. Linnas O. (G) 30. Mabinda J. 16. Rasimus K. (C) 5. Takamaki T. 14. Olander H. 20. Medo 19. Tolonen M. 24. Sukunda Z. 10. Latonen J. 7. Weckstrom L. 17. Sarr M.
Substitutes
13. Anttila M. 71. Bagci H. (G) 2. Guseff J. 9. Heinonen E. 5. Jannes A. 7. Pyyskanen R. 6. Salmensuu O.	32. Ala-Iso S. 37. Hietanen K. (G) 11. Jarvinen T. 23. Liikonen K. 25. Malolo R. 79. Rahja J. 6. Woivalin H.
Coaches
Kesanen T.	Rantanen J.

Preview

During this match we will watch a battle between a team from the middle of a tournament table and a leader (ranked 8 in the zone Ykkonen (Relegation Group: ) and 2 in the zone Promotion ~ Ykkonen (Championship Group: )).

SalPa is in bad shape now (in the last 5 games wins - 1).

Recent matches Gnistan is playing unstable (in the last 5 games wins - 2).

SalPa could have problems with physics compare with it opponent - last days they played more matches than their opponents.

Recently SalPa have a series of guest games.

Gnistan will have a poor advantage in this game.

Last 3 head-to-head matches SalPa won 0 matches, drawn 0 matches, lost 3 matches and goals 3-7.

Including matches at home between the teams SalPa won 0 matches, drawn 0 matches, lost 2 matches and goals 2-5.

Form

✺ - easy match; ✺ - difficult match;

- Salon Palloilijat
Finnish Ykkonen
11.06.23	FF Jaro - Salon Palloilijat	1:0 ✺
08.06.23	KPV Kokkola - Salon Palloilijat	1:0 ✺
04.06.23	Salon Palloilijat - Mikkelin Palloilijat	1:2 ✺
Finnish Cup
31.05.23	Haukilahden Pallo - Salon Palloilijat	0:6 ✺
Finnish Ykkonen
27.05.23	TPS - Salon Palloilijat	2:1 ✺
Form Coefficient (based on results and difficulties of last matches) - 1 LLLWL
- IF Gnistan
Finnish Ykkonen
11.06.23	Gnistan - SJK Akatemia	5:2 ✺
04.06.23	Gnistan - JäPS	0:0 ✺
Finnish Cup
31.05.23	KTP Kotka - Gnistan	2:1 penalties ✺
Finnish Ykkonen
27.05.23	KPV Kokkola - Gnistan	1:2 ✺
21.05.23	Gnistan - Mikkelin Palloilijat	1:1 ✺
Form Coefficient (based on results and difficulties of last matches) - 5 WTLWT

Latest Head to Head

Finnish Ykkoscup
25.02.23	Salon Palloilijat - Gnistan	0:2
Finnish Kakkonen Group B
31.08.19	Gnistan - Salon Palloilijat	2:1
19.06.19	Salon Palloilijat - Gnistan	2:3

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