Match Info

Conference League - League phase - Round 4

Date: 27 November 2025, Thursday

Location: Stadio Artemio Franchi (Florence)

Referee: Jones R. (Eng)

Where to Watch on TV:


Argentina	Disney+
Armenia	Fast Sports
Asia	beIN Connect MENA, beIN Sports MENA Xtra 1, beIN Sports MENA Xtra 1, beIN Sports MENA Xtra 1, TOD
Australia	Stan Sport
Austria	Sky Go Austria, Sky Sport Austria 1
Bosnia-and-herzegovina	Arena Sport 1
China	ZhiBo8
Croatia	Arena Sport 8, MAXtv To Go
Cyprus	Cytavision on the Go, Cytavision Sports 4, Cytavision Sports 4
Denmark	Disney+
Finland	Viaplay
France	Canal+ Live 11
Germany	RTL+
Greece	ANT 1+, ANT 1 Greece, COSMOTE Sport 5
Hong-kong	beIN SPORTS MAX
Iceland	SÝN Sport Viaplay, Viaplay
Indonesia	beIN Connect, beIN SPORTS MAX
Italy	NOW TV, SKY Go Italia, Sky Sport 253, Sky Sport Calcio
Laos	beIN Connect
Malaysia	beIN Connect, beIN SPORTS MAX, Canal+, Canal+ Sport 2
Malta	GO TV, TSN Malta 7
Myanmar	Canal+ Myanmar
New-zealand	DAZN New Zealand
North-macedonia	MaxTV GO
Norway	Viaplay
Peru	Disney+
Philippines	beIN Connect, beIN SPORTS MAX
Portugal	DAZN 4, DAZN / App
Romania	Digi Online, Digi Sport 4, Orange TV Go, Prima Sport 3
Russia	Okko Sport
Serbia	Arena Sport 5
Singapore	beIN SPORTS MAX
South-america	ViX Latin America
Spain	M+ Liga de Campeones 11
Sweden	Disney+
Switzerland	Blue Sport 21, Blue Sport 21
Thailand	beIN Connect, beIN SPORTS MAX
Ukraine	MEGOGO Futbol 7
United-kingdom	Discovery+ App, Discovery+, TNT Sports 6, TNT Sports Extra
Uruguay	Disney+
Usa	Paramount+
Venezuela	Disney+
Vietnam	On Golf, ON Plus


	Fiorentina		AEK Athens

	1	X	2
	1.95	3.4	3.9
	1.98	3.35	3.7
	2.02	3.43	4.09
	1.70	3.76	4.92	Watch
	1.92	3.44	4.15
	1.94	3.33	4
Avarage Now (Initially)	1.92 ↑ (1.69)	3.45 ↓ (3.75)	4.13 ↓ (4.87)

The most likely Over/Under: 2.25

The best margin for this event is 3.1%, offered by

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Current Win Probability

Fiorentina
49.5%

Draw
27.5%

AEK Athens
23%

Initial Probability

(when we started the analysis)

55.6%

25.1%

19.3%

Our Initial ML Estimation

60.6%

27.4%

17.7%

Analysis of Changes in Winning Probabilities:

Fiorentina has seen a decrease in its chances compared to the initial analysis. (-6.1%)

Note: This is a significant drop in prediction, indicating that Fiorentina's form might have worsened.

AEK Athens has improved its chances compared to the initial analysis. (+3.7%)

ML Model estimates a higher probability for Fiorentina than the current prediction. (+11.1%)

Note: The ML model's higher estimate suggests a strong performance forecast for Fiorentina, possibly due to key factors that the model accounted for.

ML Model estimates a lower probability for AEK Athens than the current prediction. (-5.3%)

Note: The ML model's lower estimate suggests a potential downturn for AEK Athens, possibly due to injuries or other negative factors.

Who will win by Users?

1	X	2
71.1%	10.5%	18.4%

Fiorentina - AEK Athens Predictions

Users Predictions: 38 users predict this event. Fiorentina will win (votes: 27 - 71.1%). AEK will win (votes: 7 - 18.4%). It will Tie (votes: 4 - 10.5%).
Confidence interval (95%) for Fiorentina: 56.7% – 85.5%.

Over/Under & Asian Handicap Predictions by Selected Experts:

O/U 2.5 - under (votes: 1 - 100%) .

DC - AEK (1.81) (votes: 1 - 100%) .

AH -0.5 - Fiorentina (1.98) (votes: 1 - 100%) .

Verified Performance Core (Selected Experts): Fiorentina will win (9 of 11 users predict this - 81.82%) 🥈 Silver Tip.

Overall Expert Consensus (including all markets): 13 Selected Experts predict this event. Fiorentina (votes: 10 - 76.9%). AEK (votes: 3 - 23.1%).

Expected Score (Market Odds): 1:0

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Lineups

Starting Lineups
43. de Gea D. (G) 5. Pongracic M. 15. Comuzzo P. 6. Ranieri L. (C) 29. Fortini N. 8. Mandragora R. 14. Nicolussi Caviglia H. 27. Ndour C. 65. Parisi F. 10. Gudmundsson A. 9. Dzeko E.	1. Strakosha T. (G) 12. Rota L. 2. Moukoudi H. (C) 44. Relvas F. 3. Pilios S. 8. Gacinovic M. 13. Pineda O. 37. Pereyra R. 11. Koita A. 18. Marin R. 9. Jovic L.
Substitutes
44. Fagioli N. 22. Fazzini J. 20. Kean M. 23. Kospo E. 60. Kouadio E. 1. Lezzerini L. (G) 18. Mari P. 30. Martinelli T. (G) 91. Piccoli R. 24. Richardson A. 7. Sohm S. 26. Viti M.	81. Angelopoulos A. (G) 91. Brignoli A. (G) 55. Chrysopoulos K. 4. Grujic M. 34. Kosidis C. 20. Mantalos P. 29. Penrice J. 21. Vida D. 90. Zini
Coaches
Vanoli P.	Nikolic M.

Key Events of the Match

1st Half (0 - 1)
35', 0 - 1, Gacinovic M. ⚽, Pilios S. (A),
44', Gudmundsson A. 🟨,
2nd Half (0 - 0)
63', Pereyra R. 🟨,
63', Parisi F. ↓, Kouadio E. ↑,
64', Ndour C. ↓, Kean M. ↑,
64', Pilios S. 🟨,
67', Pereyra R. ↓, Mantalos P. ↑,
67', Koita A. ↓, Zini ↑,
69', Pongracic M. 🟨,
79', Nicolussi Caviglia H. ↓, Fagioli N. ↑,
80', Fortini N. ↓, Fazzini J. ↑,
80', Ranieri L. ↓, Viti M. ↑,
82', Gacinovic M. ↓, Grujic M. ↑,
90', Zini ↓, Penrice J. ↑,
90+8', Mandragora R. 🟨,

Preview

Fiorentina is going through a rough patch (last 5 games: 0 wins).

AEK is on a winning streak and currently in very good shape (last 5 games: 4 wins).

In this match, Fiorentina is a strong favorite.

There will not play in Fiorentina: Gosens R. (Thigh Injury) Kouame C. (Knee Injury) Lamptey T. (Knee Injury)

There will not play in AEK: Callens A. (Heart Problems) Eliasson N. (Injury) Jonsson J. (Inactive) Kaloskamis D. (Inactive) Kolimatsis C. (Inactive) Kutesa D. (Inactive) Mitoglou G. (Inactive) Odubajo M. (Inactive)

There are questionable in AEK: Pierrot F. (Injury)

Recently, the teams have not faced each other.

Form

✺ - easy match; ✺ - difficult match;

- Fiorentina
Italian Serie A
22.11.25	Fiorentina - Juventus	1:1 ✺
09.11.25	Genoa - Fiorentina	2:2 ✺
UEFA Europa Conference League
06.11.25	Mainz - Fiorentina	2:1 ✺
Italian Serie A
02.11.25	Fiorentina - Lecce	0:1 ✺
29.10.25	Inter Milan - Fiorentina	3:0 ✺
Form Coefficient (based on results and difficulties of last matches) - 5 TTLLL
- AEK Athens
Greek Super League
23.11.25	AEK Athens - Aris	1:0 ✺
09.11.25	OFI - AEK Athens	0:1 ✺
UEFA Europa Conference League
06.11.25	AEK Athens - Shamrock Rovers	1:1 ✺
Greek Super League
02.11.25	AEK Athens - Panetolikos	1:0 ✺
Greek Cup
29.10.25	Ilioupolis - AEK Athens	0:1 ✺
Form Coefficient (based on results and difficulties of last matches) - 5.1 WWTWW

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