Match Info

Conference League - League phase - Round 4

Date: 27 November 2025, Thursday 🏁 Finished

Location: Stadio Artemio Franchi (Florence) 🌤️ ...

Referee: Jones R. (Eng)

Where to Watch on TV:

Country	Kick-Off	TV Channels
Argentina	17:00	Disney+
Armenia	00:00	Fast Sports
Asia	—	beIN Connect MENA, beIN Sports MENA Xtra 1, beIN Sports MENA Xtra 1, beIN Sports MENA Xtra 1, TOD
Australia	07:00	Stan Sport
Austria	21:00	Sky Go Austria, Sky Sport Austria 1
Bosnia And Herzegovina	21:00	Arena Sport 1
China	04:00	ZhiBo8
Croatia	21:00	Arena Sport 8, MAXtv To Go
Cyprus	22:00	Cytavision on the Go, Cytavision Sports 4, Cytavision Sports 4
Denmark	21:00	Disney+
Finland	22:00	Viaplay
France	21:00	Canal+ Live 11
Germany	21:00	RTL+
Greece	22:00	ANT 1+, ANT 1 Greece, COSMOTE Sport 5
Hong Kong	04:00	beIN SPORTS MAX
Iceland	20:00	SÝN Sport Viaplay, Viaplay
Indonesia	03:00	beIN Connect, beIN SPORTS MAX
Italy	21:00	NOW TV, SKY Go Italia, Sky Sport 253, Sky Sport Calcio
Laos	03:00	beIN Connect
Malaysia	04:00	beIN Connect, beIN SPORTS MAX, Canal+, Canal+ Sport 2
Malta	21:00	GO TV, TSN Malta 7
Myanmar	02:30	Canal+ Myanmar
New Zealand	09:00	DAZN New Zealand
North Macedonia	21:00	MaxTV GO
Norway	21:00	Viaplay
Peru	15:00	Disney+
Philippines	04:00	beIN Connect, beIN SPORTS MAX
Portugal	20:00	DAZN 4, DAZN / App
Romania	22:00	Digi Online, Digi Sport 4, Orange TV Go, Prima Sport 3
Russia	23:00	Okko Sport
Serbia	21:00	Arena Sport 5
Singapore	04:00	beIN SPORTS MAX
South America	—	ViX Latin America
Spain	21:00	M+ Liga de Campeones 11
Sweden	21:00	Disney+
Switzerland	21:00	Blue Sport 21, Blue Sport 21
Thailand	03:00	beIN Connect, beIN SPORTS MAX
Ukraine	22:00	MEGOGO Futbol 7
United Kingdom	20:00	Discovery+ App, Discovery+, TNT Sports 6, TNT Sports Extra
Uruguay	17:00	Disney+
Usa	15:00	Paramount+
Venezuela	16:00	Disney+
Vietnam	03:00	On Golf, ON Plus


	Fiorentina		AEK Athens

	1	X	2
	1.95	3.4	3.9
	1.98	3.35	3.7
	2.02	3.43	4.09
	1.70	3.76	4.92	Watch
	1.92	3.44	4.15
	1.94	3.33	4
Avarage Now (Initially)	1.92 ↑ (1.69)	3.45 ↓ (3.75)	4.13 ↓ (4.87)

The most likely Over/Under: 2.25

The best margin for this event is 3.1%, offered by

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Current Win Probability

Fiorentina
49.5%

Draw
27.5%

AEK Athens
23%

Initial Probability (when we started the analysis)

55.6%

25.1%

19.3%

Our Initial ML Estimation

56.7%

25.6%

17.7%

Analysis of Changes in Winning Probabilities:

Fiorentina has seen a decrease in its chances compared to the initial analysis. (-6.1%)

Note: This is a significant drop in prediction, indicating that Fiorentina's form might have worsened.

AEK Athens has improved its chances compared to the initial analysis. (+3.7%)

ML Model estimates a higher probability for Fiorentina than the current prediction. (+7.2%)

Note: The ML model's higher estimate suggests a strong performance forecast for Fiorentina, possibly due to key factors that the model accounted for.

ML Model estimates a lower probability for AEK Athens than the current prediction. (-5.3%)

Note: The ML model's lower estimate suggests a potential downturn for AEK Athens, possibly due to injuries or other negative factors.

Who will win by Users?

1	X	2
71.1%	10.5%	18.4%

Fiorentina - AEK Athens Predictions

Users Predictions: 38 users predict this event. Fiorentina will win (votes: 27 - 71.1%). AEK will win (votes: 7 - 18.4%). It will Tie (votes: 4 - 10.5%).
Confidence interval (95%) for Fiorentina: 56.7% – 85.5%.

Over/Under & Asian Handicap Predictions by Selected Experts:

O/U 2.5 - under (votes: 1 - 100%) .

DC - AEK (1.81) (votes: 1 - 100%) .

AH -0.5 - Fiorentina (1.98) (votes: 1 - 100%) .

Verified Performance Core (Selected Experts): Fiorentina will win (9 of 11 users predict this - 81.82%) 🥈 Silver Tip.

Overall Expert Consensus (including all markets): 13 Selected Experts predict this event. Fiorentina (votes: 10 - 76.9%). AEK (votes: 3 - 23.1%).

Expected Score (Market Odds): 1:0

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Lineups

Starting Lineups
43. de Gea D. (G) 5. Pongracic M. 15. Comuzzo P. 6. Ranieri L. (C) 29. Fortini N. 8. Mandragora R. 14. Nicolussi Caviglia H. 27. Ndour C. 65. Parisi F. 10. Gudmundsson A. 9. Dzeko E.	1. Strakosha T. (G) 12. Rota L. 2. Moukoudi H. (C) 44. Relvas F. 3. Pilios S. 8. Gacinovic M. 13. Pineda O. 37. Pereyra R. 11. Koita A. 18. Marin R. 9. Jovic L.
Substitutes
44. Fagioli N. 22. Fazzini J. 20. Kean M. 23. Kospo E. 60. Kouadio E. 1. Lezzerini L. (G) 18. Mari P. 30. Martinelli T. (G) 91. Piccoli R. 24. Richardson A. 7. Sohm S. 26. Viti M.	81. Angelopoulos A. (G) 91. Brignoli A. (G) 55. Chrysopoulos K. 4. Grujic M. 34. Kosidis C. 20. Mantalos P. 29. Penrice J. 21. Vida D. 90. Zini
Coaches
Vanoli P.	Nikolic M.

Key Events of the Match

1st Half (0 - 1)
35', 0 - 1, Gacinovic M. ⚽, Pilios S. (A),
44', Gudmundsson A. 🟨,
2nd Half (0 - 0)
63', Pereyra R. 🟨,
63', Parisi F. ↓, Kouadio E. ↑,
64', Ndour C. ↓, Kean M. ↑,
64', Pilios S. 🟨,
67', Pereyra R. ↓, Mantalos P. ↑,
67', Koita A. ↓, Zini ↑,
69', Pongracic M. 🟨,
79', Nicolussi Caviglia H. ↓, Fagioli N. ↑,
80', Fortini N. ↓, Fazzini J. ↑,
80', Ranieri L. ↓, Viti M. ↑,
82', Gacinovic M. ↓, Grujic M. ↑,
90', Zini ↓, Penrice J. ↑,
90+8', Mandragora R. 🟨,

Preview

Fiorentina is going through a rough patch (last 5 games: 0 wins).

AEK is on a winning streak and currently in very good shape (last 5 games: 4 wins).

In this match, Fiorentina is a strong favorite.

There will not play in Fiorentina: Gosens R. (Thigh Injury) Kouame C. (Knee Injury) Lamptey T. (Knee Injury)

There will not play in AEK: Callens A. (Heart Problems) Eliasson N. (Injury) Jonsson J. (Inactive) Kaloskamis D. (Inactive) Kolimatsis C. (Inactive) Kutesa D. (Inactive) Mitoglou G. (Inactive) Odubajo M. (Inactive)

There are questionable in AEK: Pierrot F. (Injury)

Recently, the teams have not faced each other.

Form

✺ - easy match; ✺ - difficult match;

- Fiorentina
Italian Serie A
22.11.25	Fiorentina - Juventus	1:1 ✺
09.11.25	Genoa - Fiorentina	2:2 ✺
UEFA Europa Conference League
06.11.25	Mainz - Fiorentina	2:1 ✺
Italian Serie A
02.11.25	Fiorentina - Lecce	0:1 ✺
29.10.25	Inter Milan - Fiorentina	3:0 ✺
Form Coefficient (based on results and difficulties of last matches) - 5 TTLLL
- AEK Athens
Greek Super League
23.11.25	AEK Athens - Aris	1:0 ✺
09.11.25	OFI - AEK Athens	0:1 ✺
UEFA Europa Conference League
06.11.25	AEK Athens - Shamrock Rovers	1:1 ✺
Greek Super League
02.11.25	AEK Athens - Panetolikos	1:0 ✺
Greek Cup
29.10.25	Ilioupolis - AEK Athens	0:1 ✺
Form Coefficient (based on results and difficulties of last matches) - 5.1 WWTWW

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