Match Info

MLS

Date: 12 July 2025, Saturday

Location: Soldier Field (Chicago, IL)

Referee: Rivas V. (Usa)

Where to Watch on TV:


Usa	MLS Season Pass
World	EA Sports FC


	Chicago Fire		San Diego

	1	X	2
	2.5	3.9	2.45	Watch
	2.55	3.7	2.4
	2.52	3.95	2.48	Watch
	2.61	4.05	2.52
				Watch
	2.5	3.7	2.45
	2.6	3.95	2.47	Watch
	2.55	3.65	2.5
Avarage Now (Initially)	2.55 ↑ (2.54)	3.84 ↑ (3.68)	2.47 ↓ (2.63)

The most likely Over/Under: 3.50

The best margin for this event is 2.7%, offered by

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Current Win Probability

Chicago Fire
37.1%

Draw
24.6%

San Diego
38.3%

Initial Probability

(when we started the analysis)

37.6%

26%

36.3%

Our Initial ML Estimation

38.6%

26.7%

35.4%

Analysis of Changes in Winning Probabilities:

Chicago Fire has seen a decrease in its chances compared to the initial analysis. (-0.5%)

San Diego has improved its chances compared to the initial analysis. (+2%)

ML Model estimates a higher probability for Chicago Fire than the current prediction. (+1.5%)

ML Model estimates a lower probability for San Diego than the current prediction. (-2.9%)

Who will win by Users?

1	X	2
29.4%	17.6%	52.9%

Chicago Fire - San Diego Predictions

Users Predictions: 17 users predict this event. Chicago will win (votes: 5 - 29.4%). San Diego will win (votes: 9 - 52.9%). It will Tie (votes: 3 - 17.6%).
Confidence interval (95%) for San Diego: 29.2% – 76.6%.

Verified Performance Core (Selected Experts): 5 Selected Experts predict this event. Chicago (votes: 2 - 40%). San Diego (votes: 2 - 40%). Tie (votes: 1 - 20%).

Over/Under & Asian Handicap Predictions by Selected Experts:

O/U 3 - over (votes: 1 - 100%) .

AH +0.25 - San Diego (1.68) (votes: 1 - 100%) .

O/U 1.5, 1st Half - under (votes: 1 - 100%) .

Overall Expert Consensus (including all markets): 6 Selected Experts predict this event. Chicago (votes: 2 - 33.3%). San Diego (votes: 3 - 50%). Tie (votes: 1 - 16.7%).

Expected Score (Market Odds): 1:1

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Lineups

Starting Lineups
1. Brady C. (G) 2. Barroso L. 3. Elliott J. 5. Rogers S. 15. Gutman A. 22. Pineda M. 17. Gutierrez B. 35. Oregel S. 11. Zinckernagel P. 9. Cuypers H. 19. Bamba J.	13. Sisniega P. (G) 33. Verhoeven O. 97. McVey C. 17. McNair P. 27. Bombino L. 8. Valakari O. 14. de la Torre L. 6. Tverskov J. 10. Dreyer A. 9. Angel T. 11. Lozano H.
Substitutes
23. Acosta K. 12. Barlow T. 42. D'Avilla D. 24. Dean J. 25. Gal J. (G) 26. Glasgow O. 34. Gonzalez O. 7. Haile-Selassie M. 6. Kouame R.	24. Boateng E. 5. Diop H. 26. Duah M. 32. Iloski M. 98. Jackson J. (G) 19. Loffelsend J. 77. Mighten A. 22. Negri F. 25. Pilcher I.
Coaches
Berhalter G.	Varas M.

Key Events of the Match

1st Half (0 - 2)
2', Valakari O. 🟨,
8', 0 - 1, Dreyer A. ⚽, Lozano H. (A), Bombino L. (A2)
30', Pineda M. 🟨,
45+3', 0 - 2, Dreyer A. ⚽, Lozano H. (A), Bombino L. (A2)
2nd Half (1 - 0)
46', McNair P. ↓, Pilcher I. ↑,
46', Oregel S. ↓, Kouame R. ↑,
58', Lozano H. ↓, Mighten A. ↑,
66', Barroso L. ↓, Dean J. ↑,
71', Pineda M. ↓, D'Avilla D. ↑,
72', Zinckernagel P. ↓, Haile-Selassie M. ↑,
81', Angel T. ↓, Boateng E. ↑,
82', Boateng E. 🟨,
86', Rogers S. ↓, Barlow T. ↑,
87', 1 - 2, Cuypers H. ⚽, Haile-Selassie M. (A),
90+1', Bombino L. ↓, Negri F. ↑,
90+6', Gutierrez B. 🟨,

Preview

Watch a clash between a mid-table side and a current leader (ranked 9 in the zone Promotion ~ MLS (Play Offs: 1/16~finals) and 1 in the zone Promotion ~ MLS (Play Offs: 1/8~finals)).

Chicago is going through a rough patch (last 5 games: 1 wins).

San Diego is currently in excellent shape (in the last 5 games, wins – 4).

Chicago may face physical challenges compared to their opponent, as they have played more matches in recent days.

The chances of victory for both teams are nearly identical in this match.

There will not play in Chicago: Acosta K. (Injury) Cupps C. (Leg Injury) Mueller C. (Personal Reasons) Poreba D. (Knee Injury) Teran C. (Hamstring Injury)

There will not play in San Diego: Alvarado Jr A. (Injury) Diop H. (Lower-Body Injury) Ingvartsen M. (Lower-Body Injury) Kumado W. (Lower-Body Injury) Reyes A. (Lower-Body Injury)

There are questionable in Chicago: Kouame R. (Lower-Body Injury) Reynolds J. (Injury)

Recently, the teams have not faced each other.

Form

✺ - easy match; ✺ - difficult match;

- Chicago Fire
US Open Cup
08.07.25	Minnesota United - Chicago Fire	3:1 ET ✺
MLS
05.07.25	Cincinnati - Chicago Fire	2:1 ✺
28.06.25	Chicago Fire - Charlotte	3:2 ✺
25.06.25	Chicago Fire - Philadelphia Union	0:1 ✺
14.06.25	Chicago Fire - Nashville SC	0:2 ✺
Form Coefficient (based on results and difficulties of last matches) - 2.1 LLWLL
- San Diego FC
MLS
05.07.25	San Diego - Houston Dynamo	3:4 ✺
28.06.25	FC Dallas - San Diego	2:3 ✺
25.06.25	Vancouver Whitecaps - San Diego	3:5 ✺
14.06.25	Minnesota United - San Diego	2:4 ✺
31.05.25	San Diego - Austin FC	2:0 ✺
Form Coefficient (based on results and difficulties of last matches) - 14.6 LWWWW

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