Match Info

USA: USL CHAMPIONSHIP

Date: 5 August 2023, Saturday

Location: Torero Stadium (San Diego)

Referee: Badawi M. (Usa)


	San Diego Loyal		Orange County SC

	1	X	2
				Watch
	1.63	3.8	4.1
	1.64	3.85	4.5
	1.7	3.89	4.67
	1.66	3.9	4.4	Watch
	1.67	3.9	4.3
Avarage Now (Initially)	1.66 ↓ (2.09)	3.87 ↑ (3.5)	4.39 ↑ (3.13)

The most likely Over/Under: 2.75

The best margin for this event is 5.9%, offered by

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Current Win Probability

San Diego Loyal
55.3%

Draw
23.8%

Orange County SC
20.9%

Initial Probability

(when we started the analysis)

44.2%

26.3%

29.5%

Our Initial ML Estimation

45%

26.8%

29%

Analysis of Changes in Winning Probabilities:

San Diego Loyal has improved its chances compared to the initial analysis. (+11.1%)

Note: This is a significant improvement in prediction, suggesting increased confidence in San Diego Loyal's performance.

Orange County SC has seen a decrease in its chances compared to the initial analysis. (-8.6%)

Note: This is a significant drop in prediction, and Orange County SC might be facing challenges that affect their performance.

ML Model estimates a lower probability for San Diego Loyal than the current prediction. (-10.3%)

Note: The ML model's lower estimate suggests that there may be underlying issues with San Diego Loyal that the model has picked up on.

ML Model estimates a higher probability for Orange County SC than the current prediction. (+8.1%)

Note: The ML model's higher estimate suggests that Orange County SC could outperform expectations, possibly based on recent matchups or player stats.

San Diego Loyal - Orange County SC Predictions

Expected Score (Market Odds): 2:1

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Lineups

Starting Lineups
1. Koke Vegas (G) 5. Stoneman G. 4. Guzman C. 6. Adams C. (C) 13. Riley C. 17. Martin C. 7. Bodily B. 15. Corona J. 9. Conway E. 14. Perez A. 11. Moshobane T.	20. Shutler C. (G) 2. Lambe O. 30. Nakkim M. 5. Powers D. 3. Villanueva A. 19. Partida K. 10. Iloski B. 8. Casiple S. 26. Scott K. 7. Iloski M. 21. Amang T. O.
Substitutes
23. Chilaka M. 18. Collier E. 8. Damus R. 60. Ferree D. (G) 10. Guido A. 2. Hackworth M. 77. Mushagalusa E.	15. Chattha A. 6. Fox A. 11. Jamieson B. 17. Lankford K. 18. Osundina K. 16. Richards B. 29. Santana J. (G)
Coaches
MIller N.	Karlsen M.

Preview

Last 5 head-to-head matches San Diego Loyal won 3.

Now both teams are in good shape.

In this match San Diego Loyal is a favorite.

Last 11 head-to-head matches San Diego Loyal won 5 matches, drawn 3 matches, lost 3 matches and goals 15-13.

Including matches at home between the teams San Diego Loyal won 3 matches, drawn 0 matches, lost 2 matches and goals 7-6.

Form

✺ - easy match; ✺ - difficult match;

- San Diego Loyal
USL Championship
30.07.23	San Diego Loyal - Colorado Springs Switchbacks	2:0 ✺
Club Friendly
27.07.23	San Diego Loyal - Borussia Dortmund	0:6 ✺
USL Championship
14.07.23	Colorado Springs Switchbacks - San Diego Loyal	0:5 ✺
08.07.23	Hartford Athletic - San Diego Loyal	0:2 ✺
01.07.23	Indy Eleven - San Diego Loyal	2:2 ✺
Form Coefficient (based on results and difficulties of last matches) - 15.8 WLWWT
- Orange County SC
USL Championship
29.07.23	Orange County SC - New Mexico United	1:0 ✺
22.07.23	Memphis 901 - Orange County SC	3:4 ✺
15.07.23	Loudoun United - Orange County SC	1:3 ✺
09.07.23	Rio Grande Valley - Orange County SC	2:0 ✺
01.07.23	Orange County SC - Monterey Bay	3:1 ✺
Form Coefficient (based on results and difficulties of last matches) - 21.7 WWWLW

Latest Head to Head

USL Championship
06.05.23	Orange County SC - San Diego Loyal	1:2
01.10.22	Orange County SC - San Diego Loyal	2:2
30.07.22	Orange County SC - San Diego Loyal	2:3
29.06.22	San Diego Loyal - Orange County SC	2:1
20.10.21	Orange County SC - San Diego Loyal	1:0
21.08.21	San Diego Loyal - Orange County SC	1:2
14.07.21	San Diego Loyal - Orange County SC	2:1

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