Match Info

USL Championship

Date: 3 October 2026, Saturday

Location: Championship Soccer Stadium (Irvine, CA)

Referee: Thompson M. (Usa)

Where to Watch on TV:


Argentina	Disney+
Brazil	Disney+
Chile	Disney+
Colombia	Disney+
Mexico	Disney+
North-central-america	Disney+ Caribbean
Peru	Disney+
Uruguay	Disney+
Usa	ESPN App, ESPN+
Venezuela	Disney+


	Orange County SC		Monterey Bay

	1	X	2
				Watch
	2.00	3.30	3.10
	1.92	3.40	3.30
	2.14	3.60	3.45
	1.93	3.75	3.51	Watch
	2.06	3.45	3.40
	2.03	3.53	3.43	Watch
	1.99	3.45	3.25
Avarage Now (Initially)	2.01 ↑ (1.97)	3.5 ↓ (3.55)	3.35 ↑ (3.34)

The most likely Over/Under: 2.75

The best margin for this event is 3.5%, offered by

#Advertisement. For Live Stream GEO restrictions apply. Funded account required. GamblingTherapy.org. 18+

Current Win Probability

Orange County SC
46%

Draw
26.4%

Monterey Bay
27.6%

Initial Probability

(when we started the analysis)

46.6%

25.9%

27.5%

Our Initial ML Estimation

39.7%

22.1%

32.3%

Analysis of Changes in Winning Probabilities:

Orange County SC has seen a decrease in its chances compared to the initial analysis. (-0.6%)

Monterey Bay has improved its chances compared to the initial analysis. (+0.1%)

ML Model estimates a lower probability for Orange County SC than the current prediction. (-6.3%)

Note: The ML model's lower estimate suggests that there may be underlying issues with Orange County SC that the model has picked up on.

ML Model estimates a higher probability for Monterey Bay than the current prediction. (+4.7%)

Orange County SC - Monterey Bay Predictions

Expected Score (Market Odds): 1:1

#ad

Lineups

Starting Lineups
1. Rando A. (G) 16. Lindsey J. 5. Brewitt T. (C) 15. Espy T. 23. Doghman R. 19. Partida K. 11. MacKinnon L. 8. Sylla O. 18. Palomino M. 10. Hegardt C. 21. War M.	98. Jackson J. (G) 22. Garcia J. 47. Elliot Q. 32. Farnsworth Z. 3. Ritchie S. 4. Ross N. 14. Nakamura R. 15. Barajas F. 88. Lletget S. (C) 20. Paul I. 21. Otoya D.
Substitutes
12. Bazini Y. 4. Benalcazar N. 14. Cambridge B. 32. Ciotta N. 31. Kadono T. (G) 27. Kelly S. 22. Marinch A. 25. Solis E. 9. Zubak E.	18. Belmar J. 23. Blancas E. 10. Canete F. 31. Dalton C. (G) 93. Judson 11. Leggett W. 26. Pakbaz J. 30. Villasana A.
Coaches
Crettenand D.	Covelo A.

Key Events of the Match

1st Half (1 - 0)
5', 1 - 0, Sylla O. (Penalty Awarded),
32', Nakamura R. 🟨,
45+1', Brewitt T. 🟥,
2nd Half (0 - 2)
46', Otoya D. ↓, Leggett W. ↑,
46', Lindsey J. ↓, Benalcazar N. ↑,
61', 1 - 1, Lletget S. (Penalty Awarded),
62', Partida K. ↓, Kelly S. ↑,
64', Nakamura R. ↓, Judson ↑,
65', 1 - 2, Farnsworth Z. ⚽, Lletget S. (A),
68', Palomino M. ↓, Cambridge B. ↑,
68', MacKinnon L. ↓, Bazini Y. ↑,
74', Elliot Q. 🟨,
75', Garcia J. ↓, Belmar J. ↑,
80', Hegardt C. 🟨,
80', War M. ↓, Zubak E. ↑,
81', Leggett W. 🟨,
89', Ritchie S. ↓, Villasana A. ↑,
89', Paul I. ↓, Canete F. ↑,
90+3', Ross N. 🟨,

Preview

In the last 5 head-to-head matches, Orange County SC won 1.

Orange County SC has experienced an up-and-down run in recent matches (last 5 matches: 1 win).

Monterey Bay has struggled for form in recent encounters (last 5 matches: 0 wins).

A closely fought contest is anticipated, with Orange County SC holding a narrow advantage.

In the last 10 head-to-head meetings, Orange County SC has recorded 4 wins, 1 draw, and 5 losses, with a goal aggregate of 11:13 (averaging 1.1:1.3 goals per game).

Specifically in home fixtures for Orange County SC against this opponent, the record stands at 2 wins, 0 draws, and 2 losses, with 5:6 goals (averaging 1.3:1.5 per game).

Last Results with these Odds

Monterey Bay - the odds 3.34 are the expected chance of winning is 27.51%, but this team recently wins 38% of matches with these odds.

Form

✺ - easy match; ✺ - difficult match;

- Orange County SC
USL Championship
26.09.26	Orange County SC - Pittsburgh Riverhounds	1:0 ✺
19.09.26	Lexington - Orange County SC	6:0 ✺
12.09.26	Orange County SC - Las Vegas Lights	0:2 ✺
05.09.26	Orange County SC - Sacramento Republic	1:1 ✺
29.08.26	Oakland Roots - Orange County SC	1:1 ✺
Form Coefficient (based on results and difficulties of last matches) - 11.6 WLLTT
- Monterey Bay FC
USL Championship
26.09.26	Monterey Bay - Lexington	2:3 ✺
19.09.26	Charleston Battery - Monterey Bay	1:0 ✺
05.09.26	Monterey Bay - Phoenix Rising	1:1 ✺
29.08.26	Monterey Bay - Sacramento Republic	1:1 ✺
22.08.26	Rhode Island - Monterey Bay	3:1 ✺
Form Coefficient (based on results and difficulties of last matches) - 5.1 LLTTL

Latest Head to Head

USL Championship
25.07.26	Monterey Bay - Orange County SC	1:2
11.07.25	Monterey Bay - Orange County SC	2:1
USL Cup
31.05.25	Monterey Bay - Orange County SC	3:2
USL Championship
22.03.25	Orange County SC - Monterey Bay	0:3
21.09.24	Monterey Bay - Orange County SC	0:0
27.04.24	Orange County SC - Monterey Bay	2:0
14.10.23	Monterey Bay - Orange County SC	0:1

Upcoming Matches