Match Info

USA: USL CHAMPIONSHIP

Date: 13 May 2023, Saturday

Location: Torero Stadium (San Diego)

Referee: Stevis B. (Usa)


	San Diego Loyal		Rio Grande Valley

	1	X	2
				Watch
	1.57	3.75	4.75
	1.58	3.95	4.8
	1.73	3.75	4.7
	1.59	3.85	5.05	Watch
	1.61	3.9	4.8
Avarage Now (Initially)	1.62 ↓ (1.72)	3.84 ↑ (3.74)	4.82 ↑ (3.96)

The most likely Over/Under: 2.50

The best margin for this event is 5.7%, offered by

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Current Win Probability

San Diego Loyal
56.9%

Draw
24%

Rio Grande Valley
19.1%

Initial Probability

(when we started the analysis)

52.8%

24.3%

22.9%

Our Initial ML Estimation

54.8%

23.4%

22.1%

Analysis of Changes in Winning Probabilities:

San Diego Loyal has improved its chances compared to the initial analysis. (+4.1%)

Rio Grande Valley has seen a decrease in its chances compared to the initial analysis. (-3.8%)

ML Model estimates a lower probability for San Diego Loyal than the current prediction. (-2.1%)

ML Model estimates a higher probability for Rio Grande Valley than the current prediction. (+3%)

San Diego Loyal - Rio Grande Valley Predictions

Expected Score (Market Odds): 1:0

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Preview

This match will be played by one of a leader and outsider (ranked 2 in the zone Promotion ~ USL Championship (Play Offs: Quarter~finals) and 10).

San Diego Loyal has the most likely position - 1 (19.05%), project points - 57, currently - 17, a good chance of playoffs (95%), a good chance of qtrs (55%), a chance of semis (30%), a chance of final (16%), a small chance of win league (9%).

Rio Grande Valley has the most likely position - 12 (25.4%), project points - 36, currently - 8, a chance of playoffs (24%), a small chance of qtrs (8%), a very small chance of semis (3%), a very small chance of final (1%), a very small chance of win league (<1%).

This event has small quality 15, small importance 15, small match rating 15. (0-100) (fivethirtyeight.com)

Recent matches San Diego Loyal is playing changeable (in the last 5 games wins - 2).

Rio Grande Valley is in bad shape now (in the last 5 games wins - 0).

Rio Grande Valley could have advantage in physics - more days for rest in last days.

In this match San Diego Loyal is a favorite.

Last 3 head-to-head matches San Diego Loyal won 1 matches, drawn 0 matches, lost 2 matches and goals 3-4.

Including matches at home between the teams San Diego Loyal won 1 matches, drawn 0 matches, lost 0 matches and goals 2-1.

Form

✺ - easy match; ✺ - difficult match;

- San Diego Loyal
USL Championship
06.05.23	Orange County SC - San Diego Loyal	1:2 ✺
29.04.23	San Diego Loyal - El Paso Locomotive	1:2 ✺
US Open Cup
26.04.23	Seattle Sounders - San Diego Loyal	5:4 ✺
USL Championship
23.04.23	San Diego Loyal - Tampa Bay Rowdies	1:0 ✺
15.04.23	New Mexico United - San Diego Loyal	1:1 ✺
Form Coefficient (based on results and difficulties of last matches) - 6.5 WLLWT
- Rio Grande Valley FC Toros
USL Championship
05.05.23	Rio Grande Valley - New Mexico United	2:2 ✺
29.04.23	Monterey Bay - Rio Grande Valley	0:0 ✺
22.04.23	Rio Grande Valley - Memphis 901	0:3 ✺
15.04.23	Pittsburgh Riverhounds - Rio Grande Valley	2:0 ✺
US Open Cup
05.04.23	South Georgia Tormenta - Rio Grande Valley	2:1 ✺
Form Coefficient (based on results and difficulties of last matches) - 1.3 TTLLL

Latest Head to Head

USL Championship
23.07.22	San Diego Loyal - Rio Grande Valley	2:1
21.05.22	Rio Grande Valley - San Diego Loyal	2:1
06.05.21	Rio Grande Valley - San Diego Loyal	1:0

San Diego Loyal - Rio Grande Valley: Predictions, Live Scores & TV Guide