Match Info

SPAIN: Segunda RFEF - Group 4 - Round 15

Date: 8 December 2024, Sunday

Location: Estadio Bahía Sur (San Fernando)

Where to Watch on TV:


Spain	Footballclub


	San Fernando		Estepona

	1	X	2
	2.25	2.95	2.95
	2.26	3	3.1
	2.31	2.92	3.23
				Watch
	2.3	3.02	3.16
	2.26	3	3.1
Avarage Now (Initially)	2.28 ↓ (2.65)	2.98 ↑ (2.91)	3.11 ↑ (2.64)

The most likely Over/Under: 2.00

The best margin for this event is 8.2%, offered by

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Current Win Probability

San Fernando
40.1%

Draw
30.6%

Estepona
29.3%

Initial Probability

(when we started the analysis)

34.3%

31.3%

34.4%

Our Initial ML Estimation

32.3%

29.5%

36.5%

Analysis of Changes in Winning Probabilities:

San Fernando has improved its chances compared to the initial analysis. (+5.8%)

Note: This is a significant improvement in prediction, suggesting increased confidence in San Fernando's performance.

Estepona has seen a decrease in its chances compared to the initial analysis. (-5.1%)

Note: This is a significant drop in prediction, and Estepona might be facing challenges that affect their performance.

ML Model estimates a lower probability for San Fernando than the current prediction. (-7.8%)

Note: The ML model's lower estimate suggests that there may be underlying issues with San Fernando that the model has picked up on.

ML Model estimates a higher probability for Estepona than the current prediction. (+7.2%)

Note: The ML model's higher estimate suggests that Estepona could outperform expectations, possibly based on recent matchups or player stats.

San Fernando - Estepona Predictions

Expected Score (Market Odds): 1:1

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Key Events of the Match

1st Half (0 - 0)
2nd Half (1 - 0)
90', 1 - 0, Gomila F. ⚽,

Preview

An autsider and a mid-table team will play in this game (ranked 16 in the zone Relegation and 8).

Recent matches San Fernando is playing unstable (in the last 5 games wins - 2).

Estepona is in bad shape now (in the last 5 games wins - 1).

San Fernando could have problems with physics compare with it opponent - last days they played more matches than their opponents.

San Fernando will have a mini benefit in this match.

Recently, the teams did not play each other.

Form

✺ - easy match; ✺ - difficult match;

- CD San Fernando
Spanish Segunda RFEF - Group 4
01.12.24	UCAM Murcia - San Fernando	1:0 ✺
24.11.24	San Fernando - Xerez Deportivo	0:1 ✺
17.11.24	Don Benito - San Fernando	1:0 ✺
10.11.24	San Fernando - Minera	0:0 ✺
03.11.24	San Fernando - Xerez CD	1:0 ✺
Form Coefficient (based on results and difficulties of last matches) - 4.8 LLLTW
- CD Estepona
Spanish Copa del Rey
04.12.24	Estepona - Leganés	2:3 penalties ✺
Spanish Segunda RFEF - Group 4
30.11.24	Estepona - Almeria B	0:1 ✺
24.11.24	Antoniano - Estepona	2:1 ✺
17.11.24	Estepona - La Unión	0:1 ✺
10.11.24	Granada B - Estepona	0:1 ✺
Form Coefficient (based on results and difficulties of last matches) - 2 LLLLW

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