Match Info

SOUTH AMERICA: Copa Libertadores - Group Stage - Round 1

Date: 3 April 2024, Wednesday

Location: Estadio Pedro Bidegain (Buenos Aires)

Referee: Valenzuela J. (Ven)

Where to Watch on TV:


Australia	beIN Sports
Bosnia-and-herzegovina	Arena Sport
Brazil	ESPN
Bulgaria	Max Sport 4
Croatia	Arena Sport
Portugal	Sport TV


	San Lorenzo		Palmeiras

	1	X	2
				Watch
	2.8	2.9	2.65
	2.78	2.95	2.75	Watch
	2.87	2.96	2.84
	2.87	2.96	2.84
	2.7	2.9	2.6
	2.88	2.95	2.72	Watch
	2.75	2.95	2.65
Avarage Now (Initially)	2.81 ↓ (3.24)	2.94 ↓ (3.21)	2.72 ↑ (2.25)

The most likely Over/Under: 2.00

The best margin for this event is 3.8%, offered by

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Current Win Probability

San Lorenzo
33.5%

Draw
32%

Palmeiras
34.5%

Initial Probability

(when we started the analysis)

29%

29.2%

41.8%

Our Initial ML Estimation

28.3%

28.5%

42.9%

Analysis of Changes in Winning Probabilities:

San Lorenzo has improved its chances compared to the initial analysis. (+4.5%)

Palmeiras has seen a decrease in its chances compared to the initial analysis. (-7.3%)

Note: This is a significant drop in prediction, and Palmeiras might be facing challenges that affect their performance.

ML Model estimates a lower probability for San Lorenzo than the current prediction. (-5.2%)

Note: The ML model's lower estimate suggests that there may be underlying issues with San Lorenzo that the model has picked up on.

ML Model estimates a higher probability for Palmeiras than the current prediction. (+8.4%)

Note: The ML model's higher estimate suggests that Palmeiras could outperform expectations, possibly based on recent matchups or player stats.

Who will win by Users?

1	X	2
30.8%	53.8%	15.4%

San Lorenzo - Palmeiras Predictions

Users Predictions: 13 users predict this event. San Lorenzo will win (votes: 4 - 30.8%). Palmeiras will win (votes: 2 - 15.4%). It will Tie (votes: 7 - 53.8%).
Confidence interval (95%) for a draw: 26.7% – 80.9%.

Expected Score (Market Odds): 1:1

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Lineups

Starting Lineups
13. Altamirano F. (G) 4. Romana J. 22. Campi G. 21. Braida M. 8. Giay A. 41. Leguizamon I. 17. Irala E. 10. Barrios N. 50. Perruzzi F. 18. Ferreira C. 11. Bareiro A.	14. Marcelo Lomba (G) 34. Naves 15. Gomez G. 32. Garcia 25. Gabriel Menino 27. Rios R. 16. Caio Paulista 6. Vanderlan 17. Lazaro 10. Rony 19. Breno Lopes
Substitutes
7. Cerutti E. 25. Gomez G. (G) 27. Herazo D. 2. Hernandez N. 24. James J. 35. Lujan G. 34. Medina T. 49. Perugini T. 20. Porra T. 5. Remedi E. 6. Sanchez C. 32. Tapia I.	41. Estevao 35. Fabinho 42. Flaco Lopez 40. Jhon Jhon 22. Joaquin Piquerez 51. Kaique Pereira (G) 13. Luan 31. Luis Guilherme 1. Mateus (G) 5. Moreno A. 20. Romulo 44. Vitor Reis
Coaches
Insua R.	Ferreira A.

Key Events of the Match

1st Half (1 - 0)
20', 1 - 0, Romana J. ⚽, Leguizamon I. (A),
33', Barrios N. 🟨,
2nd Half (0 - 1)
51', Vanderlan 🟨,
54', Vanderlan ↓, Joaquin Piquerez ↑,
54', Caio Paulista ↓, Flaco Lopez ↑,
56', Ferreira C. 🟨,
58', Breno Lopes 🟨,
58', Bareiro A. 🟨,
60', Breno Lopes ↓, Luis Guilherme ↑,
60', Gabriel Menino ↓, Moreno A. ↑,
63', Leguizamon I. ↓, Lujan G. ↑,
63', Ferreira A. 🟨,
64', Naves 🟨,
71', Ferreira C. ↓, Herazo D. ↑,
80', Giay A. 🟨,
81', 1 - 1, Joaquin Piquerez ⚽,
84', Lazaro ↓, Luan ↑,
86', Romana J. 🟨,
90+1', Perruzzi F. 🟨,
90+2', Rios R. 🟨,

Preview

Recent matches San Lorenzo is playing unstable (in the last 5 games wins - 2).

Palmeiras is in a first-rate shape now (in the last 5 games wins - 3).

San Lorenzo could have advantage in physics - more days for rest in last days.

In this match the chances to achieve triumph for both teams are almost equal.

Last 2 head-to-head matches San Lorenzo won 1 matches, drawn 0 matches, lost 1 matches and goals 1-1.

Including matches at home between the teams San Lorenzo won 1 matches, drawn 0 matches, lost 0 matches and goals 1-0.

Form

✺ - easy match; ✺ - difficult match;

- San Lorenzo
Argentinian Copa de la Liga Profesional
30.03.24	Boca Juniors - San Lorenzo	2:1 ✺
21.03.24	San Lorenzo - Godoy Cruz	1:0 ✺
16.03.24	San Lorenzo - Sarmiento de Junín	1:0 ✺
09.03.24	Platense - San Lorenzo	0:0 ✺
03.03.24	Newells Old Boys - San Lorenzo	2:2 ✺
Form Coefficient (based on results and difficulties of last matches) - 8.2 LWWTT
- Palmeiras
Brazilian Campeonato Paulista
31.03.24	Santos - Palmeiras	1:0 ✺
28.03.24	Palmeiras - Grêmio Novorizontino	1:0 ✺
16.03.24	Palmeiras - Ponte Preta	5:1 ✺
09.03.24	Palmeiras - Botafogo SP	1:0 ✺
03.03.24	São Paulo - Palmeiras	1:1 ✺
Form Coefficient (based on results and difficulties of last matches) - 5.1 LWWWT

Latest Head to Head

Copa Libertadores
08.05.19	Palmeiras - San Lorenzo	1:0
02.04.19	San Lorenzo - Palmeiras	1:0

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