Match Info

Liga Profesional - Apertura - Round 10

Date: 11 March 2026, Wednesday

Location: Estadio Alberto J. Armando (Buenos Aires)

Referee: Echavarria P. (Arg)

Where to Watch on TV:


Argentina	ESPN Premium
Bosnia-and-herzegovina	Arena Sport 1
Brazil	Claro TV+, Disney+, ESPN, Sky+, Vivo Play, Zapping
Chile	ESPN 5
Croatia	Arena Sport 1, MAXtv To Go
Germany	Sportdigital FUSSBALL
Israel	Sport 3
Italy	Como TV, Sportitalia
Kosovo	Arena Premium 2
Mexico	Disney+, Fanatiz
North-central-america	Disney+ Caribbean
Peru	Disney+
Portugal	Sport TV1
Serbia	Arena Premium 2
Slovenia	Arena Sport 2
Spain	M+ Liga de Campeones 2, Movistar+ Vamos Bar 2
Switzerland	Sunrise TV, Sunrise TV
United-kingdom	Premier Sports Player
Uruguay	Disney+
Usa	Fanatiz
Venezuela	Disney+, Inter
World	Onefootball, TyC Sports Internacional


	Boca Juniors		San Lorenzo

	1	X	2
	1.68	3.25	6	Watch
	1.63	3.4	6
	1.72	3.2	5.8
	1.73	3.3	6.43
	1.77	3.16	5.84	Watch
	1.7	3	5.75
	1.72	3.29	6.39	Watch
	1.7	3.25	5.4
Avarage Now (Initially)	1.71 ↑ (1.7)	3.23 ↓ (3.25)	5.95 ↑ (5.4)

The most likely Over/Under: 1.75

The best margin for this event is 3.7%, offered by

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Current Win Probability

Boca Juniors
55.1%

Draw
29.1%

San Lorenzo
15.8%

Initial Probability

(when we started the analysis)

54.4%

28.5%

17.1%

Our Initial ML Estimation

55.3%

28%

16.8%

Analysis of Changes in Winning Probabilities:

Boca Juniors has improved its chances compared to the initial analysis. (+0.7%)

San Lorenzo has seen a decrease in its chances compared to the initial analysis. (-1.3%)

ML Model estimates a higher probability for Boca Juniors than the current prediction. (+0.2%)

ML Model estimates a higher probability for San Lorenzo than the current prediction. (+1%)

Who will win by Users?

1	X	2
63.6%	36.4%	0%

Boca Juniors - San Lorenzo Predictions

Users Predictions: 11 users predict this event. Boca Juniors will win (votes: 7 - 63.6%). It will Tie (votes: 4 - 36.4%).
Confidence interval (95%) for Boca Juniors: 35.2% – 92%.

Over/Under & Asian Handicap Predictions by Selected Experts:

O/U 2.5 - under (votes: 1 - 100%) .

O/U 1.75 - over (votes: 1 - 100%) .

Expected Score (Market Odds): 1:0

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Lineups

Starting Lineups
1. Marchesin A. (G) 23. Weigandt M. 2. Di Lollo L. 32. Costa A. 3. Blanco L. 25. Ascacibar S. 5. Paredes L. (C) 18. Delgado M. 36. Aranda T. 28. Bareiro A. 16. Miguel Merentiel	12. Gill O. (G) 32. Herrera E. 4. Romana J. 23. Hernandez G. (C) 6. De Ritis M. 24. Tripichio N. 5. Perruzzi I. 7. Cerutti E. 10. Gulli F. 14. Ladstatter A. 9. Cuello A.
Substitutes
15. Alarcon Cepeda W. H. 24. Barinaga J. 27. Braida M. 12. Brey L. (G) 4. Figal J. 37. Gelini G. 21. Herrera A. 11. Janson L. 26. Pellegrino M. 38. Rey Domenech C. 22. Zenon K. 41. Zufiaurre I.	26. Abrego G. 28. Barrios N. 15. Cardillo M. 16. Corujo G. 25. Devecchi J. (G) 44. Hernandez M. 34. Lopez F. 21. Perruzzi F. 11. Reali M. 17. Rodriguez G. 3. Rodriguez Pagano T. 19. Vietto L.
Coaches
Ubeda C.	Ayude D.

Key Events of the Match

1st Half (0 - 0)
13', Cuello A. 🟨,
27', Cerutti E. ↓, Barrios N. ↑,
45', Paredes L. 🟨,
45+3', Aranda T. 🟨,
2nd Half (1 - 1)
55', 1 - 0, Ascacibar S. ⚽, Delgado M. (A),
63', Gulli F. ↓, Vietto L. ↑,
63', Romana J. 🟨,
63', Ladstatter A. ↓, Rodriguez G. ↑,
65', 1 - 1, Rodriguez G. ⚽, De Ritis M. (A),
79', Hernandez G. ↓, Corujo G. ↑,
80', Barrios N. ↓, Abrego G. ↑,
81', Tripichio N. 🟨,
81', Miguel Merentiel 🟨,
90+2', Bareiro A. ↓, Zufiaurre I. ↑,

Preview

Two mid-table teams will face off this time (ranked 6 in the zone Promotion ~ Liga Profesional (Apertura ~ Play Offs: 1/8~finals) and 7 in the zone Promotion ~ Liga Profesional (Apertura ~ Play Offs: 1/8~finals)).

In the last 5 head-to-head matches, Boca Juniors won 2.

Boca Juniors is in very good shape right now (last 5 games: 2 wins).

San Lorenzo has been playing with ups and downs recently (in the last 5 games, wins – 1).

Boca Juniors may face physical challenges compared to their opponent, as they have played more matches in recent days.

Recently, Boca Juniors has had a series of home games.

In this match, Boca Juniors is the team to beat.

In the last 20 head-to-head matches, Boca Juniors won 8 matches, drew 4 matches, lost 8 matches, and goals 23:21. (average 1.2:1.1).

Including home matches between the teams, Boca Juniors won 6 matches, drew 2 matches, lost 2 matches, and goals 16:9. (average 1.6:0.9).

Last Results with these Odds

Boca Juniors - the odds 1.7 are the expected chance of winning is 54.41%, but this team recently wins 88% of matches with these odds.

Form

✺ - easy match; ✺ - difficult match;

- Boca Juniors
Argentinian Liga Profesional
04.03.26	Lanús - Boca Juniors	0:3 ✺
28.02.26	Boca Juniors - Gimnasia y Esgrima de Mendoza	1:1 ✺
Copa Argentina
24.02.26	Boca Juniors - Gimnasia y Esgrima Chivilcoy	2:0 ✺
Argentinian Liga Profesional
20.02.26	Boca Juniors - Racing	0:0 ✺
15.02.26	Boca Juniors - Platense	0:0 ✺
Form Coefficient (based on results and difficulties of last matches) - 4.9 WTWTT
- San Lorenzo
Argentinian Liga Profesional
28.02.26	Talleres de Córdoba - San Lorenzo	0:0 ✺
24.02.26	San Lorenzo - Instituto Córdoba	1:1 ✺
22.02.26	San Lorenzo - Estudiantes de Río Cuarto	2:0 ✺
13.02.26	Unión Santa Fe - San Lorenzo	0:0 ✺
08.02.26	Huracán Buenos Aires - San Lorenzo	1:0 ✺
Form Coefficient (based on results and difficulties of last matches) - 6.9 TTWTL

Latest Head to Head

Argentinian Liga Profesional
18.08.24	Boca Juniors - San Lorenzo	3:2
Argentinian Copa de la Liga Profesional
30.03.24	Boca Juniors - San Lorenzo	2:1
08.11.23	San Lorenzo - Boca Juniors	1:1
Argentinian Liga Profesional
12.04.23	San Lorenzo - Boca Juniors	1:0
09.07.22	San Lorenzo - Boca Juniors	2:1
Torneos De Verano
25.01.22	Boca Juniors - San Lorenzo	1:0
Argentinian Liga Profesional
27.07.21	Boca Juniors - San Lorenzo	0:2

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