Match Info

SOUTH AMERICA: COPA SUDAMERICANA - PLAY OFFS - 1/8-FINALS

Date: 3 August 2023, Thursday

Location: Estadio Pedro Bidegain (Buenos Aires)

Referee: Roldan W. (Col)

Where to Watch on TV:


Australia	beIN Sports
Brazil	ESPN
Bulgaria	Max Sport 4
Poland	Polsat Sport Extra
Portugal	Sport TV


	San Lorenzo		São Paulo

	1	X	2
	2.8	2.88	2.8	Watch
	2.8	2.75	2.85
	2.7	2.85	2.9
	2.94	2.82	2.87
	2.7	2.7	2.75
	2.9	2.93	2.69	Watch
	2.75	2.8	2.85
Avarage Now (Initially)	2.8 ↑ (2.55)	2.82 ↓ (2.95)	2.82 ↓ (2.88)

The most likely Over/Under: 1.75

The best margin for this event is 4.3%, offered by

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Current Win Probability

San Lorenzo
33.5%

Draw
33.2%

São Paulo
33.3%

Initial Probability

(when we started the analysis)

36.4%

31.5%

32.2%

Our Initial ML Estimation

36.8%

31.2%

31.9%

Analysis of Changes in Winning Probabilities:

San Lorenzo has seen a decrease in its chances compared to the initial analysis. (-2.9%)

São Paulo has improved its chances compared to the initial analysis. (+1.1%)

ML Model estimates a higher probability for San Lorenzo than the current prediction. (+3.3%)

ML Model estimates a lower probability for São Paulo than the current prediction. (-1.4%)

Who will win by Users?

1	X	2
17.6%	70.6%	11.8%

San Lorenzo - São Paulo Predictions

Users Predictions: 17 users predict this event. San Lorenzo will win (votes: 3 - 17.6%). São Paulo will win (votes: 2 - 11.8%). It will Tie (votes: 12 - 70.6%).
Confidence interval (95%) for a draw: 48.9% – 92.3%.

Expected Score (Market Odds): 0:0

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Lineups

Starting Lineups
13. Batalla A. (G) 2. Perez R. 22. Campi G. 23. Hernandez G. 47. Giay A. 8. Maroni G. 5. Elias J. (C) 21. Braida M. 41. Leguizamon I. 10. Barrios N. 11. Bareiro A.	23. Rafael (G) 13. Rafinha (C) 5. Robert Arboleda 35. Lucas Beraldo 38. Caio Paulista 7. Alisson 29. Pablo Maia 27. Wellington Rato 10. Luciano 11. Rodrigo Nestor 9. Jonathan Calleri
Substitutes
1. Altamirano F. (G) 30. Arias N. 37. Baez E. 9. Blandi N. 15. Calcaterra D. 55. Goyeneche J. 44. Hernandez M. 58. Irala E. 35. Lujan G. 49. Perea D. 50. Perruzzi F. 3. Sanchez C.	22. David 4. Diego Costa 28. Franco A. 93. Jandrei (G) 31. Juan 32. Marcos Paulo 21. Mendez J. 15. Michel Araujo 45. Nathan Mendes 12. Pato 37. Talles Costa 6. Welington
Coaches
Insua R.	Junior D.

Preview

1st leg.

One and the other team get a very uncertain game.

In this match the chances to win of both teams are almost equal.

Last 2 head-to-head matches San Lorenzo won 1 matches, drawn 0 matches, lost 1 matches and goals 1-1.

Including matches at home between the teams San Lorenzo won 1 matches, drawn 0 matches, lost 0 matches and goals 1-0.

Form

✺ - easy match; ✺ - difficult match;

- San Lorenzo
Argentinian Liga Profesional
29.07.23	Tigre - San Lorenzo	2:0 ✺
Copa Argentina
26.07.23	San Lorenzo - Platense	1:0 penalties ✺
Argentinian Liga Profesional
22.07.23	San Lorenzo - Argentinos Juniors	0:2 ✺
Copa Sudamericana
19.07.23	San Lorenzo - Independiente Medellín	2:0 ✺
Argentinian Liga Profesional
16.07.23	Belgrano - San Lorenzo	0:1 ✺
Form Coefficient (based on results and difficulties of last matches) - 9.1 LWLWW
- São Paulo FC
Brazilian Serie A
30.07.23	São Paulo - Bahia	0:0 ✺
Copa do Brasil
25.07.23	Corinthians - São Paulo	2:1 ✺
Brazilian Serie A
22.07.23	Cuiabá - São Paulo	2:1 ✺
16.07.23	São Paulo - Santos	4:1 ✺
Copa do Brasil
13.07.23	Palmeiras - São Paulo	1:2 ✺
Form Coefficient (based on results and difficulties of last matches) - 13.8 TLLWW

Latest Head to Head

Copa Libertadores
01.04.15	San Lorenzo - São Paulo	1:0
18.03.15	São Paulo - San Lorenzo	1:0

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