The best margin for this event is 6.8%, offered by
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Current Win Probability
San Marcos de Arica 56.8%
Draw 27.5%
Deportes Concepción 15.7%
Initial Probability
(when we started the analysis)
37.8%
28.9%
33.3%
Our Initial ML Estimation
38.2%
28.6%
33%
Analysis of Changes in Winning Probabilities:
San Marcos de Arica has improved its chances compared to the initial analysis. (+19%)
Note: This is a significant improvement in prediction, suggesting increased confidence in San Marcos de Arica's performance.
Deportes Concepción has seen a decrease in its chances compared to the initial analysis. (-17.6%)
Note: This is a significant drop in prediction, and Deportes Concepción might be facing challenges that affect their performance.
ML Model estimates a lower probability for San Marcos de Arica than the current prediction. (-18.6%)
Note: The ML model's lower estimate suggests that there may be underlying issues with San Marcos de Arica that the model has picked up on.
ML Model estimates a higher probability for Deportes Concepción than the current prediction. (+17.3%)
Note: The ML model's higher estimate suggests that Deportes Concepción could outperform expectations, possibly based on recent matchups or player stats.
San Marcos de Arica - Deportes Concepción Predictions
Expected Score (Market Odds): 1:1
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Lineups
Starting Lineups
1. Temperini N. (G) 8. Barrios A. (C) 36. Campos R. 15. Cubillos G. 40. Fernandez R. 32. Gauna N. A. 6. Ledesma F. 9. Melivilu Fuentes C. 26. Rencoret C. 5. Rivera J. 10. Velazco F.
25. Araya N. (G) 4. Caceres A. 24. Espinola J. 31. Kimura N. 32. Larrivey J. 26. Morales C. 23. Ojeda U. 19. Ovalle J. 5. Silva S. 11. Valdivia B. 20. Zambrano Diego
Substitutes
4. Caceres C. 21. Camarda M. 19. Contreras A. 3. Muller I. 24. Pereira D. 22. Tapia B. (G) 27. Valenzuela C.
9. Escobar C. 30. Fuentes N. 7. Gillard A. 8. Manzo F. 1. Munoz J. (G) 10. Nunez F. 16. Sandoval M.
Key Events of the Match
1st Half (1 - 0)
25', Silva S. 🟨,
27', Valdivia B. 🟨,
40', Silva S. 🟨,
43', 1 - 0, Melivilu Fuentes C. ⚽,
45+3', Caceres A. 🟨,
2nd Half (2 - 0)
46', Ojeda U. ↓, Gillard A. ↑,
58', 2 - 0, Velazco F. ⚽,
61', Gillard A. 🟨,
62', Valdivia B. ↓, Manzo F. ↑,
62', Larrivey J. ↓, Sandoval M. ↑,
68', Rivera J. ↓, Contreras A. ↑,
69', Ovalle J. 🟨,
73', Fernandez R. ↓, Pereira D. ↑,
73', Ovalle J. ↓, Nunez F. ↑,
75', Campos R. ↓, Caceres C. ↑,
77', Contreras A. 🟨,
87', Velazco F. ↓, Valenzuela C. ↑,
87', Cubillos G. ↓, Camarda M. ↑,
90+1', Morales C. ↓, Escobar C. ↑,
90+2', Caceres A. 🟥,
90+4', 3 - 0, Camarda M. ⚽,
Preview
One of today’s top clashes will feature two teams fighting for the top spots (ranked 4 in the zone Promotion ~ Liga de Primera (Promotion ~ Play Offs: Quarter~finals) and 6 in the zone Promotion ~ Liga de Primera (Promotion ~ Play Offs: Quarter~finals)).
Both teams have been playing unpredictably.
Deportes Concepción may have a physical advantage due to more rest days in recent times.
Recently, Deportes Concepción has had a series of home games.
The chances of victory for both teams are nearly identical in this match.
In the last 4 head-to-head matches, San Marcos de Arica won 3 matches, drew 0 matches, lost 1 match, and goals 3:1. (average 0.8:0.3).
Including home match between the teams, San Marcos de Arica won 1 match, drew 0 matches, lost 0 matches, and goals 1:0.
Watch
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Temperini N. (G) 
Barrios A. (C) 
Espinola J. 
Camarda M. 
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