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Current Win Probability
Deportes Recoleta 35.4%
Draw 29.9%
San Marcos de Arica 34.7%
Initial Probability
(when we started the analysis)
36.1%
28.9%
35.1%
Our Initial ML Estimation
37.5%
27.8%
33.8%
Analysis of Changes in Winning Probabilities:
Deportes Recoleta has seen a decrease in its chances compared to the initial analysis. (-0.7%)
San Marcos de Arica has seen a decrease in its chances compared to the initial analysis. (-0.4%)
ML Model estimates a higher probability for Deportes Recoleta than the current prediction. (+2.1%)
ML Model estimates a lower probability for San Marcos de Arica than the current prediction. (-0.9%)
Deportes Recoleta - San Marcos de Arica Predictions
Expected Score (Market Odds): 1:1
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Lineups
Starting Lineups
23. Salazar A. (G) 11. Viveros D. 16. Viveros B. 5. Alarcon F. 3. Arismendy N. 15. Baez F. 8. Martin F. (C) 21. Alvarez G. 10. Arguinarena M. 19. Sanchez P. 9. Estigarribia G.
13. Tapia B. (G) 8. Barrios A. 34. Barboza A. 5. Rivera J. 23. Cazula A. 26. Rencoret C. (C) 14. Guerra C. 33. Benavides E. 10. Sagredo B. 19. Maidana A. 9. Melivilu Fuentes C.
Substitutes
17. Carvajal N. 27. Flores F. 20. Gonzalez C. 14. Lara I. 13. Narr J. (G) 33. Riveros R. 4. Tomarelli F.
2. Campos R. 22. Donadell N. 4. Iturra M. 24. Pereira D. 16. Reyes G. 1. Saracho R. (G) 11. Zedan N.
Key Events of the Match
1st Half (0 - 1)
7', 0 - 1, Barboza A. ⚽,
2nd Half (2 - 0)
46', Estigarribia G. ↓, Flores F. ↑,
62', 1 - 1, Flores F. ⚽,
63', Alarcon F. ↓, Lara I. ↑,
63', Arismendy N. ↓, Tomarelli F. ↑,
63', Arguinarena M. ↓, Gonzalez C. ↑,
67', Maidana A. ↓, Reyes G. ↑,
67', Benavides E. ↓, Pereira D. ↑,
78', Sagredo B. ↓, Donadell N. ↑,
79', Melivilu Fuentes C. ↓, Zedan N. ↑,
83', 2 - 1, Alvarez G. ⚽,
84', Alvarez G. ↓, Carvajal N. ↑,
Preview
This time we’ll see a clash between two mid-table teams (ranked 7 in the zone Promotion ~ Liga de Primera (Promotion ~ Play Offs: Quarter~finals) and 9).
In the last 5 head-to-head matches, Recoleta won 0.
Recoleta has been quite unpredictable recently (last 5 games: 2 wins).
San Marcos de Arica has been struggling lately (in the last 5 games, wins – 1).
San Marcos de Arica may have a physical advantage due to more rest days in recent times.
The chances of victory for both teams are nearly identical in this match.
In the last 7 head-to-head matches, Recoleta won 0 matches, drew 2 matches, lost 5 matches, and goals 6:11. (average 0.9:1.6).
Including home matches between the teams, Recoleta won 0 matches, drew 2 matches, lost 1 match, and goals 2:3. (average 0.7:1).
Standings
Pl
W
D
L
Diff
Pts
6
Recoleta
26
11
8
7
38:34
4
41
7
San Marcos de Arica
26
10
9
7
33:24
9
39
Last Results with these Odds
San Marcos de Arica - the odds 2.55 are the expected chance of winning is 35.08%, but this team recently wins 14% of matches with these odds.
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Salazar A. (G) 
Martin F. (C) 
Barboza A. 
Zedan N. 
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