Match Info

JAPAN: EMPERORS CUP - 1/16-FINALS

Date: 12 July 2023, Wednesday

Location: Edion Stadium Hiroshima (Hiroshima)


	Sanfrecce Hiroshima		Tochigi

	1	X	2
	1.3	4.75	9
	1.35	4.2	7.5
	1.34	4.4	8.6
	1.39	4.78	9.01
	1.33	4	9
	1.35	4.55	8.7
	1.34	4.6	8.8
Avarage Now (Initially)	1.34 ↓ (1.86)	4.47 ↑ (3.52)	8.66 ↑ (3.95)

The most likely Over/Under: 2.50

The best margin for this event is 4%, offered by

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Current Win Probability

Sanfrecce Hiroshima
68.7%

Draw
20.6%

Tochigi
10.7%

Initial Probability

(when we started the analysis)

50%

26.5%

23.5%

Our Initial ML Estimation

49.8%

26.4%

23.6%

Analysis of Changes in Winning Probabilities:

Sanfrecce Hiroshima has improved its chances compared to the initial analysis. (+18.7%)

Note: This is a significant improvement in prediction, suggesting increased confidence in Sanfrecce Hiroshima's performance.

Tochigi has seen a decrease in its chances compared to the initial analysis. (-12.8%)

Note: This is a significant drop in prediction, and Tochigi might be facing challenges that affect their performance.

ML Model estimates a lower probability for Sanfrecce Hiroshima than the current prediction. (-18.9%)

Note: The ML model's lower estimate suggests that there may be underlying issues with Sanfrecce Hiroshima that the model has picked up on.

ML Model estimates a higher probability for Tochigi than the current prediction. (+12.9%)

Note: The ML model's higher estimate suggests that Tochigi could outperform expectations, possibly based on recent matchups or player stats.

Who will win by Users?

1	X	2
85.7%	7.1%	7.1%

Sanfrecce Hiroshima - Tochigi Predictions

Users Predictions: Sanfrecce Hiroshima will win (12 of 14 users predict this - 85.71%).
Confidence interval (95%): 67.38% – 100%.

Expected Score (Market Odds): 1:0

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Lineups

Starting Lineups
38. Osako K. (G) 13. Ben Khalifa N. 14. Ezequiel 24. Higashi S. 18. Kashiwa Y. (C) 32. Koshimichi S. 5. Matsumoto H. 10. Morishima T. 15. Nakano S. 7. Notsuda G. 16. Shichi T.	1. Kawata S. (G) 23. Fukushima H. 24. Kanbe K. 3. Kurosaki H. 10. Mori T. (C) 6. Omori S. 19. Oshima K. 40. Takashima S. 13. Ueda K. 45. Yasuda K. 21. Yoshida T.
Substitutes
4. Araki H. 25. Chajima Y. 8. Kawamura T. 22. Kawanami G. (G) 17. Matsumoto T. 19. Sasaki S. 30. Shibasaki K.	25. Aoshima Y. (G) 16. Hiramatsu W. 27. Igarashi M. 37. Nemoto R. 7. Nishiya Y. 8. Takahagi Y. 32. Yamada Y.

Preview

Hiroshima has a line of defeats in latest matches (in the last 5 games wins - 0).

Recent matches Tochigi is playing unpredictable (in the last 5 games wins - 1).

Tochigi could have problems with physics compare with it opponent - last days they played more matches than their opponents.

In this match Hiroshima is absolute favorite.

Recently, the teams did not play each other.

Form

✺ - easy match; ✺ - difficult match;

- Sanfrecce Hiroshima
Japan J1 League
08.07.23	Sanfrecce Hiroshima - Kashima Antlers	1:1 ✺
01.07.23	Albirex Niigata - Sanfrecce Hiroshima	2:0 ✺
24.06.23	Sanfrecce Hiroshima - Yokohama F. Marinos	0:1 ✺
Japan J League Cup
18.06.23	Nagoya Grampus - Sanfrecce Hiroshima	2:1 ✺
Japan J1 League
11.06.23	Kawasaki Frontale - Sanfrecce Hiroshima	1:0 ✺
Form Coefficient (based on results and difficulties of last matches) - 1.1 TLLLL
- Tochigi SC
Japan J2 League
09.07.23	Tochigi - Vegalta Sendai	2:2 ✺
05.07.23	Iwaki - Tochigi	1:0 ✺
01.07.23	Zweigen Kanazawa - Tochigi	0:1 ✺
24.06.23	Tochigi - Renofa Yamaguchi	0:0 ✺
18.06.23	Tochigi - Machida Zelvia	1:1 ✺
Form Coefficient (based on results and difficulties of last matches) - 9.5 TLWTT

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