Match Info

PORTUGAL: LIGA 3 - RELEGATION GROUP - ROUND 3

Date: 3 March 2024, Sunday

Where to Watch on TV:


Portugal	Canal 11


	Sanjoanense		Canelas

	1	X	2
	2.95	3.2	2.1
	3	3.2	2.2
	2.92	3.2	2.21
	3.37	3.18	2.31
	3.25	3.14	2.26
	3.05	3.2	2.14
Avarage Now (Initially)	3.09 ↑ (2.72)	3.19 ↑ (3.07)	2.2 ↓ (2.63)

The most likely Over/Under: 2.25

The best margin for this event is 4.4%, offered by

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Current Win Probability

Sanjoanense
29.7%

Draw
28.8%

Canelas
41.6%

Initial Probability

(when we started the analysis)

34.3%

30.3%

35.4%

Our Initial ML Estimation

33.4%

29.5%

36.3%

Analysis of Changes in Winning Probabilities:

Sanjoanense has seen a decrease in its chances compared to the initial analysis. (-4.6%)

Canelas has improved its chances compared to the initial analysis. (+6.2%)

Note: This is a significant improvement in prediction, suggesting Canelas's recent form is better than expected.

ML Model estimates a higher probability for Sanjoanense than the current prediction. (+3.7%)

ML Model estimates a lower probability for Canelas than the current prediction. (-5.3%)

Note: The ML model's lower estimate suggests a potential downturn for Canelas, possibly due to injuries or other negative factors.

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Lineups

Starting Lineups
36. Almeida D. (G) 2. Gustavo 4. Fontes B. 44. Fernandes G. 70. Neto L. 5. Oliveira J. (C) 3. Morera R. 26. Nkolo A. 10. Jony 9. Dinho 95. Santos M.	1. Matos J. (G) 2. Lixa G. 3. Bastos V. 30. Santos D. M. 49. Silva J. 13. dos Santos Simao L. P. 8. Samu (C) 6. Luan 14. Doukoure H. 28. Tank A. 98. Lourenco O.
Substitutes
21. Ferreira C. 83. Garcia A. 11. Magalhaes J. 32. Magalhaes Marques D. 75. Martins P. 8. Oliveira H. 19. Ronaldo A. 99. Santos D. (G) 25. Santos D.	24. Dani 23. Emanuel 80. Miguel B. (G) 19. Osemene O. 20. Ribeiro F. 81. Rodrigues Mendes Teixeira J. D. 66. Soares J. 11. Sousa A. 10. Sousa C.

Preview

Last 5 head-to-head matches Sanjoanense won 3.

Sanjoanense has a chain of defeats in the last matches (in the last 5 games wins - 0).

Recent matches Canelas is playing unstable (in the last 5 games wins - 2).

Canelas will have a mini benefit in this match.

Last 12 head-to-head matches Sanjoanense won 6 matches, drawn 3 matches, lost 3 matches and goals 14-12.

Including matches at home between the teams Sanjoanense won 4 matches, drawn 0 matches, lost 2 matches and goals 8-6.

Form

✺ - easy match; ✺ - difficult match;

- AD Sanjoanense
Portuguese Liga 3
25.02.24	Vianense - Sanjoanense	1:0 ✺
17.02.24	Sanjoanense - Trofense	0:3 ✺
28.01.24	Lusitânia - Sanjoanense	1:1 ✺
21.01.24	Sanjoanense - Varzim	0:3 ✺
13.01.24	Vianense - Sanjoanense	2:1 ✺
Form Coefficient (based on results and difficulties of last matches) - 7.2 LLTLL
- CF Canelas 2010
Portuguese Liga 3
25.02.24	Canelas - Anadia	2:0 ✺
17.02.24	Fafe - Canelas	2:1 ✺
28.01.24	Fafe - Canelas	0:0 ✺
21.01.24	Canelas - Trofense	1:0 ✺
13.01.24	Lusitânia - Canelas	4:0 ✺
Form Coefficient (based on results and difficulties of last matches) - 10.2 WLTWL

Latest Head to Head

Portuguese Liga 3
12.11.23	Canelas - Sanjoanense	1:2
12.08.23	Sanjoanense - Canelas	0:2
11.02.23	Canelas - Sanjoanense	2:3
30.10.22	Sanjoanense - Canelas	2:1
05.03.22	Sanjoanense - Canelas	0:1
08.12.21	Canelas - Sanjoanense	1:1
Campeonato de Portugal - Group B
03.04.21	Canelas - Sanjoanense	0:0

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