Match Info

Challenge League - Promotion Group - Round 6

Date: 5 April 2025, Saturday

Location: Centenary Stadium (Ta' Qali)


	Santa Lucia		Valletta

	1	X	2
	7.2	4.7	1.34
	5.54	4.14	1.5	Watch
	5.51	3.78	1.53
	6	4.4	1.41
Avarage Now (Initially)	6.06 ↓ (7.22)	4.26 ↓ (4.43)	1.45 ↑ (1.37)

The most likely Over/Under: 2.75

The best margin for this event is 8.9%, offered by

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Current Win Probability

Santa Lucia
15.1%

Draw
21.5%

Valletta
63.4%

Initial Probability

(when we started the analysis)

12.6%

20.6%

66.8%

Our Initial ML Estimation

12.1%

19.8%

69.5%

Analysis of Changes in Winning Probabilities:

Santa Lucia has improved its chances compared to the initial analysis. (+2.5%)

Valletta has seen a decrease in its chances compared to the initial analysis. (-3.4%)

ML Model estimates a lower probability for Santa Lucia than the current prediction. (-3%)

ML Model estimates a higher probability for Valletta than the current prediction. (+6.1%)

Note: The ML model's higher estimate suggests that Valletta could outperform expectations, possibly based on recent matchups or player stats.

Santa Lucia - Valletta Predictions

Expected Score (Market Odds): 0:2

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Lineups

Starting Lineups
13. Farrugia C. (G) 19. Asante E. 23. Bajada J. 27. Borg A. 15. Bradshaw A. 10. Cloth J. 42. Hanan B. 45. Mawuena S. 5. Nicholl J. 74. Vella A. 16. Vella M. (C)	1. Aquilina T. (G) 23. Attard A. 17. Barbara Z. 5. Cassar Z. 14. Gauci C. 16. Jeferson Carioca 30. Lapira P. 4. Micallef N. 10. Paiber B. (C) 25. Walker J. 8. Zammit A.
Substitutes
24. Agius S. 14. Bajada J. 1. Buhagiar M. (G) 7. Legault W. 21. Mangion D. 8. Ojo T. 2. Polidano J.	21. Azzopardi Conti K. 11. Azzopardi J. 9. Ciolacu A. 15. Ewurum K. 28. MacKay S. 18. Ohaka P. 6. Ruiz E. 27. Scicluna J. (G) 33. Scicluna J.

Key Events of the Match

1st Half (0 - 1)
13', 0 - 1, Zammit A. ⚽,
29', Cloth J. ↓, Ojo T. ↑,
2nd Half (0 - 2)
46', Barbara Z. ↓, Ewurum K. ↑,
53', Borg A. ↓, Legault W. ↑,
62', Ojo T. 🟨,
65', Lapira P. ↓, Scicluna J. ↑,
71', 0 - 2, Scicluna J. ⚽,
77', Zammit A. ↓, Azzopardi J. ↑,
77', Paiber B. ↓, Ohaka P. ↑,
80', 0 - 3, Azzopardi J. ⚽,
81', Aquilina T. ↓, Scicluna J. ↑,
89', 🟨,

Preview

Last 5 head-to-head matches Santa Lucia won 2.

Instantly two teams are in a excellent shape.

In this match Valletta is absolute favorite.

Last 13 head-to-head matches Santa Lucia won 4 matches, drawn 3 matches, lost 6 matches and goals 16:21 (average 1.2:1.6).

Including matches at home between the teams Santa Lucia won 2 matches, drawn 2 matches, lost 2 matches and goals 7:7 (average 1.2:1.2).

Form

✺ - easy match; ✺ - difficult match;

- Santa Lucia FC
Maltese Challenge League
29.03.25	Santa Lucia - Marsa	3:1 ✺
09.03.25	Pietà Hotspurs - Santa Lucia	3:3 ✺
02.03.25	Santa Lucia - Mġarr United	1:1 ✺
Maltese Challenge Cup
27.02.25	Żebbuġ Rangers - Santa Lucia	2:3 penalties ✺
Maltese Challenge League
22.02.25	Tarxien Rainbows - Santa Lucia	0:0 ✺
Form Coefficient (based on results and difficulties of last matches) - 16.2 WTTWT
- Valletta FC
Maltese Challenge League
30.03.25	Valletta - Pietà Hotspurs	2:1 ✺
Maltese Challenge Cup
12.03.25	Valletta - Senglea Athletic	1:0 ✺
Maltese Challenge League
09.03.25	Mġarr United - Valletta	1:2 ✺
Maltese FA Trophy
05.03.25	Birkirkara - Valletta	3:1 ET ✺
Maltese Challenge League
01.03.25	Valletta - Tarxien Rainbows	3:0 ✺
Form Coefficient (based on results and difficulties of last matches) - 5 WWWLW

Latest Head to Head

Maltese Challenge League
20.10.24	Valletta - Santa Lucia	3:0
Maltese Premier League
16.03.24	Santa Lucia - Valletta	2:0
26.11.23	Valletta - Santa Lucia	1:1
10.04.23	Valletta - Santa Lucia	0:1
12.11.22	Santa Lucia - Valletta	0:2
Maltese FA Trophy
10.05.22	Santa Lucia - Valletta	0:1
Maltese Premier League
06.05.22	Valletta - Santa Lucia	2:1

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