Match Info

BRAZIL: Paulista - Round 10

Date: 16 February 2025, Sunday

Location: Estadio Urbano Caldeira (Santos)

Referee: Araujo V. (Bra)

Where to Watch on TV:


Brazil	Claro TV+, Max, Sky+, TNT, Vivo Play, Zapping
Portugal	Canal 11
Usa	Fanatiz


	Santos		Água Santa

	1	X	2
				Watch
	1.26	5.85	11.82
				Watch
	1.25	5	11
				Watch
Avarage Now (Initially)	1.26 ↓ (1.3)	5.43 ↑ (4.85)	11.41 ↑ (8.62)

The most likely Over/Under: 2.75

The best margin for this event is 4.9%, offered by

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Current Win Probability

Santos
74.6%

Draw
17.2%

Água Santa
8.2%

Initial Probability

(when we started the analysis)

70.4%

18.9%

10.7%

Our Initial ML Estimation

53.8%

14.4%

14%

Analysis of Changes in Winning Probabilities:

Santos has improved its chances compared to the initial analysis. (+4.2%)

Água Santa has seen a decrease in its chances compared to the initial analysis. (-2.5%)

ML Model estimates a lower probability for Santos than the current prediction. (-20.8%)

Note: The ML model's lower estimate suggests that there may be underlying issues with Santos that the model has picked up on.

ML Model estimates a higher probability for Água Santa than the current prediction. (+5.8%)

Note: The ML model's higher estimate suggests that Água Santa could outperform expectations, possibly based on recent matchups or player stats.

Who will win by Users?

1	X	2
66.7%	16.7%	16.7%

Santos - Água Santa Predictions

Users Predictions: 5 users predict this event. Santos will win (votes: 4 - 80%). Água Santa will win (votes: 1 - 20%).

Expected Score (Market Odds): 2:0

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Lineups

Starting Lineups
77. Gabriel Brazao (G) 5. Joao Schmidt 2. Ze Ivaldo 4. Gil 31. Escobar G. 49. Gabriel Bontempo 7. Soteldo Y. 44. Joao Pedro Chermont 10. Neymar (C) 16. Thaciano 11. Guilherme	1. Luan Ribeiro (G) 2. Ynaia 3. Robles Fuentes A. 4. Rafael Vaz (C) 6. Renan Castro 8. Netinho 5. Villian Guilherme 11. Marco Antonio 10. Gabriel Silva 7. Davi Gomes 9. Willen Mota
Substitutes
21. Diego Pituca 29. Godoy L. 3. Joao Basso 1. Joao Paulo (G) 38. Kevyson 79. Luca Meirelles 25. Luisao 41. Mateus Xavier 47. Miguelito 8. Rincon T. 9. Tiquinho Soares 30. Vinicius Lira	19. Ademilson 22. Arthur Korek 14. Diego Anjos 15. Diogo Batista 13. Fabio Sanches 16. Guilherme Lazaroni 25. Mike 20. Neilton 18. Ramon Vinicius 21. Robinho 17. Wesley Dias 12. Ygor Vinhas (G)
Coaches
Caixinha P.	Pintado

Key Events of the Match

1st Half (2 - 1)
14', 1 - 0, Neymar (Pen),
22', Netinho 🟨,
27', 2 - 0, Thaciano ⚽,
33', Thaciano 🟨,
44', 2 - 1, Netinho ⚽, Gabriel Silva (A),
2nd Half (1 - 0)
46', Ze Ivaldo ↓, Luisao ↑,
46', Marco Antonio ↓, Neilton ↑,
46', Willen Mota ↓, Ramon Vinicius ↑,
59', Gabriel Bontempo 🟨,
60', Thaciano ↓, Tiquinho Soares ↑,
60', Gabriel Bontempo ↓, Diego Pituca ↑,
64', Netinho ↓, Wesley Dias ↑,
66', Gabriel Silva ↓, Ademilson ↑,
69', Joao Schmidt ↓, Rincon T. ↑,
70', 3 - 1, Guilherme ⚽, Neymar (A),
77', Davi Gomes ↓, Robinho ↑,
85', Neymar ↓, Miguelito ↑,
90+4', Guilherme 🟨,
90+7', Soteldo Y. 🟨,

Preview

Recent matches Santos is playing changeable (in the last 5 games wins - 1).

Água Santa is in unsatisfactory shape now (in the last 5 games wins - 0).

Água Santa could have problems with physics compare with it opponent - last days they played more matches than their opponents.

In this match Santos is the unquestionable favorite.

Last 4 head-to-head matches Santos won 3 matches, drawn 1 matches, lost 0 matches and goals 5:2 (average 1.3:0.5).

Including matches at home between the teams Santos won 2 matches, drawn 1 matches, lost 0 matches and goals 4:2 (average 1.3:0.7).

Form

✺ - easy match; ✺ - difficult match;

- Santos FC
Brazilian Campeonato Paulista
12.02.25	Corinthians - Santos	2:1 ✺
09.02.25	Grêmio Novorizontino - Santos	0:0 ✺
05.02.25	Santos - Botafogo SP	1:1 ✺
01.02.25	Santos - São Paulo	3:1 ✺
29.01.25	São Bernardo - Santos	3:1 ✺
Form Coefficient (based on results and difficulties of last matches) - 4.2 LTTWL
- EC Água Santa
Brazilian Campeonato Paulista
12.02.25	Água Santa - Portuguesa	0:0 ✺
09.02.25	Água Santa - Palmeiras	1:1 ✺
06.02.25	Guarani - Água Santa	4:0 ✺
02.02.25	Água Santa - Ponte Preta	0:1 ✺
29.01.25	Botafogo SP - Água Santa	1:1 ✺
Form Coefficient (based on results and difficulties of last matches) - 12.3 TTLLT

Latest Head to Head

Brazilian Campeonato Paulista
31.01.24	Água Santa - Santos	0:1
25.01.23	Santos - Água Santa	0:0
19.03.22	Santos - Água Santa	3:2
12.03.16	Santos - Água Santa	1:0

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