Match Info

Serie A Betano - Round 25

Date: 30 August 2026, Sunday

Location: Neo Quimica Arena (Sao Paulo)

Referee: Sampaio W. (Bra)

Where to Watch on TV:


Argentina	Flow Eventos
Austria	Laola1
Ecuador	El Canal del Futbol app, El Canal del Futbol
Germany	Laola1, Sportdigital FUSSBALL 2
Mexico	Azteca Deportes, Disney+
North-central-america	Flow Sports 1 Caribbean
Paraguay	Flow Eventos
Portugal	Canal 11
United-kingdom	Premier Sports 2, Premier Sports Player
Uruguay	Flow
Usa	SportsEngine Play


	Corinthians		Santos

	1	X	2
	1.86	3.3	4.5	Watch
	1.88	3.30	4.40
	1.8	3.3	4.4
	1.95	3.35	4.73
	1.94	3.42	4.16	Watch
	1.9	3.3	4.65
	1.98	3.37	4.37	Watch
	1.88	3.35	4.4
Avarage Now (Initially)	1.9 ↑ (1.79)	3.34 ↑ (3.3)	4.45 ↑ (4.33)

The most likely Over/Under: 2.25

The best margin for this event is 2.3%, offered by

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Current Win Probability

Corinthians
50.1%

Draw
28.5%

Santos
21.4%

Initial Probability

(when we started the analysis)

51.1%

27.7%

21.1%

Our Initial ML Estimation

52.5%

27%

20.5%

Analysis of Changes in Winning Probabilities:

Corinthians has seen a decrease in its chances compared to the initial analysis. (-1%)

Santos has improved its chances compared to the initial analysis. (+0.3%)

ML Model estimates a higher probability for Corinthians than the current prediction. (+2.4%)

ML Model estimates a lower probability for Santos than the current prediction. (-0.9%)

Who will win by Users?

1	X	2
66.7%	0%	33.3%

Corinthians - Santos Predictions

Users Predictions: 6 users predict this event. Corinthians will win (votes: 4 - 66.7%). Santos will win (votes: 2 - 33.3%).

Expected Score (Market Odds): 1:0

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Lineups

Starting Lineups
1. Hugo Souza (G) 2. Matheuzinho 3. Gabriel Paulista 13. Gustavo Henrique 21. Matheus Bidu 29. Allan 14. Raniele 37. Kaio Cesar 8. Garro R. (C) 61. Dieguinho 10. Depay M.	77. Gabriel Brazao (G) 18. Igor Vinicius 4. Lucas Verissimo 14. Luan Peres 31. Escobar G. 48. Gustavo Henrique 15. Willian Arao 8. Gabriel Bontempo 10. Neymar (C) 22. Barreal A. 9. Gabriel Barbosa
Substitutes
80. Alex Santana 26. Angileri F. 35. Charles Rigon 56. Gui Negao 46. Hugo 4. Joao Pedro 51. Kaue (G) 64. Luiz Fernando 55. Machado I. 20. Milans P. 18. Pedro Raul 23. Pereira M.	17. Caballero G. 1. Diogenes (G) 27. Fernandes D. 26. Joao Ananias 30. Miguelito 21. Moises 28. Oliva C. 81. Pierri S. 38. Rafael Gonzaga 32. Rollheiser B. 11. Rony 16. Thaciano
Coaches
Diniz F.	Cuca

Key Events of the Match

1st Half (0 - 1)
10', Barreal A. 🟨,
20', Willian Arao 🟨,
24', Gustavo Henrique ↓, Oliva C. ↑,
31', Gabriel Paulista 🟨,
33', 0 - 1, Oliva C. ⚽,
45+2', Garro R. 🟨,
45+4', Raniele 🟨,
45+5', Lucas Verissimo 🟨,
2nd Half (0 - 0)
64', Allan ↓, Pedro Raul ↑,
67', Gabriel Bontempo ↓, Rony ↑,
73', Barreal A. ↓, Fernandes D. ↑,
73', Gabriel Barbosa ↓, Rollheiser B. ↑,
77', Dieguinho ↓, Gui Negao ↑,
84', Raniele ↓, Pereira M. ↑,

Preview

Enjoy a game between evenly matched mid-table sides (ranked 10 in the zone Promotion ~ Copa Sudamericana (Group Stage: ) and 14).

In the last 5 head-to-head matches, Corinthians won 2.

Both teams are showing inconsistent performances lately.

Santos may face physical challenges compared to their opponent, as they have played more matches in recent days.

In this match, Corinthians is a strong favorite.

There will not play in Corinthians: Andre (Muscle Injury) Andre Ramalho (Inactive) Breno Bidon (Yellow Cards) Kayke (Knee Injury) Labyad Z. (Knee Injury) Vitinho (Knee Injury) Yuri Alberto (Muscle Injury)

There will not play in Santos: Gabriel Menino (Injury) Joao Schmidt (Yellow Cards) Vinicius Lira (Knee Injury)

In the last 20 head-to-head matches, Corinthians won 8 matches, drew 7 matches, lost 5 matches, and goals 24:16. (average 1.2:0.8).

Including home matches between the teams, Corinthians won 5 matches, drew 3 matches, lost 1 match, and goals 14:6. (average 1.6:0.7).

Outrights of Brazilian Serie A for now

Corinthians: 0.85% Santos: 0.3%

Standings

		Pl	W	D	L		Diff	Pts
8	Santos	29	11	9	9	45:43	2	42
16	Corinthians	29	8	8	13	30:34	-4	32

Last Results with these Odds

Corinthians - the odds 1.79 are the expected chance of winning is 51.13%, but this team recently wins 90% of matches with these odds.

Santos - the odds 4.33 are the expected chance of winning is 21.14%, but this team recently wins 0% of matches with these odds.

Form

✺ - easy match; ✺ - difficult match;

- Corinthians
Brazilian Serie A
23.08.26	Coritiba - Corinthians	2:1 ✺
Copa Libertadores
20.08.26	Corinthians - Rosario Central	1:0 ✺
Brazilian Serie A
16.08.26	Corinthians - Cruzeiro	1:2 ✺
Copa Libertadores
13.08.26	Rosario Central - Corinthians	0:0 ✺
Brazilian Serie A
09.08.26	Red Bull Bragantino - Corinthians	0:2 ✺
Form Coefficient (based on results and difficulties of last matches) - 12.7 LWLTW
- Santos FC
Copa do Brasil
26.08.26	Palmeiras - Santos	3:0 ✺
Brazilian Serie A
23.08.26	Santos - Mirassol	1:1 ✺
Copa Sudamericana
20.08.26	Deportivo Macará - Santos	0:0 ✺
Brazilian Serie A
16.08.26	Vasco da Gama - Santos	0:3 ✺
Copa Sudamericana
13.08.26	Santos - Deportivo Macará	2:1 ✺
Form Coefficient (based on results and difficulties of last matches) - 10.5 LTTWW

Latest Head to Head

Brazilian Serie A
15.03.26	Santos - Corinthians	1:1
Brazilian Campeonato Paulista
22.01.26	Santos - Corinthians	1:1
Brazilian Serie A
15.10.25	Santos - Corinthians	3:1
18.05.25	Corinthians - Santos	1:0
Brazilian Campeonato Paulista
09.03.25	Corinthians - Santos	2:1
12.02.25	Corinthians - Santos	2:1
07.02.24	Santos - Corinthians	1:0

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