Match Info

Paulista - Round 1

Date: 10 January 2026, Saturday

Location: Estadio Urbano Caldeira (Santos)

Referee: Rodrigues F. (Bra)

Where to Watch on TV:


Brazil	Claro TV+, HBO Max, Sky+, TNT Sports, Vivo Play, Zapping


	Santos		Grêmio Novorizontino

	1	X	2
	1.7	3.5	4.75	Watch
	1.72	3.45	4.75	Watch
	1.72	3.52	5	Watch
	1.7	3.25	4.75
	1.68	3.36	4.84	Watch
	1.71	3.6	5
Avarage Now (Initially)	1.71 ↑ (1.63)	3.45 ↓ (3.65)	4.85 ↓ (5.06)

The most likely Over/Under: 2.25

The best margin for this event is 6.3%, offered by

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Current Win Probability

Santos
54.2%

Draw
26.8%

Grêmio Novorizontino
19%

Initial Probability

(when we started the analysis)

56.5%

25.3%

18.2%

Analysis of Changes in Winning Probabilities:

Santos has seen a decrease in its chances compared to the initial analysis. (-2.3%)

Grêmio Novorizontino has improved its chances compared to the initial analysis. (+0.8%)

Santos - Grêmio Novorizontino Predictions

Verified Performance Core (Selected Experts): 1 Selected Experts predict this event. Santos (votes: 1 - 100%).

Over/Under & Asian Handicap Predictions by Selected Experts:

BTTS - yes (votes: 3 - 100%) 🥉 Bronze Tip.

Expected Score (Market Odds): 1:0

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Lineups

Starting Lineups
77. Gabriel Brazao (G) 18. Igor Vinicius 98. Frias A. 27. Ze Ivaldo 31. Escobar G. 5. Joao Schmidt 15. Arao W. (C) 17. Caballero G. 19. Diaz L. 9. Gabriel Barbosa 32. Rollheiser B.	93. Jordi (G) 18. Leo Naldi 4. Patrick 26. Gabriel Bahia 77. Mayk 6. Luis Oyama 19. Diego Galo 15. Tavinho 10. Romulo 22. Ivan Alvarino 11. Robson (C)
Substitutes
1. Diogenes (G) 20. Fermino P. 48. Gustavo Henrique 13. Joao Basso 14. Luan Peres 47. Mateus Xavier 12. Mayke 30. Miguelito 8. Rincon T. 7. Robson Junior 16. Thaciano 3. Vinicius Lira	7. Airton 21. Alemao 31. Cesar Augusto (G) 14. Eduardo Brock 41. Helio Borges 5. Jean Irmer 50. Juninho 17. Matheus Bianqui 30. Nicolas Careca 12. Scapin J. (G) 16. Vinicius Paiva
Coaches
Vojvoda J.	Moreira E.

Key Events of the Match

1st Half (0 - 1)
26', 0 - 1, Diego Galo ⚽, Romulo (A),
33', Rollheiser B. 🟨,
2nd Half (2 - 0)
46', Caballero G. ↓, Robson Junior ↑,
52', 1 - 1, Gabriel Barbosa ⚽, Rollheiser B. (A),
57', Ze Ivaldo 🟨,
67', Joao Schmidt ↓, Gustavo Henrique ↑,
67', Rollheiser B. ↓, Thaciano ↑,
72', Tavinho ↓, Airton ↑,
72', Diego Galo ↓, Nicolas Careca ↑,
76', Diaz L. ↓, Mateus Xavier ↑,
77', Romulo ↓, Juninho ↑,
82', Gustavo Henrique 🟨,
86', Robson ↓, Matheus Bianqui ↑,
86', Luis Oyama ↓, Vinicius Paiva ↑,
87', Ze Ivaldo ↓, Luan Peres ↑,
89', 2 - 1, Thaciano ⚽,
90+4', Leo Naldi 🟨,

Preview

In the last 5 head-to-head matches, Santos won 0.

Santos is in very good shape right now (last 5 games: 3 wins).

In this match, Santos is seen as the favorite.

There will not play in Santos: Escobar G. (Inactive)

There will not play in Novorizontino: Leo Tocantins (Inactive) Marlon (Inactive) Renato Palm (Knee Injury)

There are questionable in Santos: Nonato (Injury)

We predict that Santos will win today's game, with odds of 1.71.

In the last 11 head-to-head matches, Santos won 1 match, drew 4 matches, lost 6 matches, and goals 14:19. (average 1.3:1.7).

Including home matches between the teams, Santos won 1 match, drew 2 matches, lost 2 matches, and goals 7:7. (average 1.4:1.4).

Form

✺ - easy match; ✺ - difficult match;

- Santos FC
Brazilian Serie A
07.12.25	Santos - Cruzeiro	3:0 ✺
03.12.25	Juventude - Santos	0:3 ✺
28.11.25	Santos - Sport Recife	3:0 ✺
24.11.25	Internacional RS - Santos	1:1 ✺
19.11.25	Santos - Mirassol	1:1 ✺
Form Coefficient (based on results and difficulties of last matches) - 12.4 WWWTT
- Grêmio Novorizontino
Brazilian Serie B
22.11.25	Grêmio Novorizontino - CRB Maceio	3:0 ✺
16.11.25	Goiás - Grêmio Novorizontino	1:0 ✺
08.11.25	Grêmio Novorizontino - Remo	1:1 ✺
03.11.25	América Mineiro - Grêmio Novorizontino	2:2 ✺
24.10.25	Grêmio Novorizontino - Botafogo SP	1:1 ✺
Form Coefficient (based on results and difficulties of last matches) - 3.5 WLTTT

Latest Head to Head

Brazilian Campeonato Paulista
09.02.25	Grêmio Novorizontino - Santos	0:0
Brazilian Serie B
23.09.24	Santos - Grêmio Novorizontino	1:1
07.06.24	Grêmio Novorizontino - Santos	3:1
Brazilian Campeonato Paulista
18.02.24	Santos - Grêmio Novorizontino	1:2
27.02.22	Santos - Grêmio Novorizontino	2:2
23.04.21	Grêmio Novorizontino - Santos	1:0
26.07.20	Grêmio Novorizontino - Santos	3:2

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