Match Info

Serie A Betano - Round 27

Date: 12 September 2026, Saturday

Location: Estadio Urbano Caldeira (Santos)

Referee: Arleu B. (Bra)

Where to Watch on TV:


Brazil	Claro TV+, Globoplay, Premiere, Sky+, SporTV, Vivo Play, Zapping
Ecuador	Canal del Futbol, El Canal del Futbol app, El Canal del Futbol
Israel	Sport 4
Russia	MATCH! Futbol 3, Match TV, Sportbox.ru
United-kingdom	Premier Sports 2, Premier Sports Player
Usa	Fanatiz, SportsEngine Play


	Santos		Cruzeiro

	1	X	2
	2.45	3.25	2.82	Watch
	2.50	3.40	2.75
	2.63	3.30	2.60	Watch
	2.61	3.45	2.92
	2.76	3.47	2.52	Watch
	2.50	3.35	2.85
	2.41	3.30	3.10	Watch
	2.49	3.30	2.75
Avarage Now (Initially)	2.54 ↑ (2.35)	3.35 ↑ (3.31)	2.79 ↓ (2.89)

The most likely Over/Under: 2.50

The best margin for this event is 1.5%, offered by

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Current Win Probability

Santos
37.4%

Draw
28.4%

Cruzeiro
34.2%

Initial Probability

(when we started the analysis)

39.6%

28.1%

32.2%

Our Initial ML Estimation

41%

27.1%

31.1%

Analysis of Changes in Winning Probabilities:

Santos has seen a decrease in its chances compared to the initial analysis. (-2.2%)

Cruzeiro has improved its chances compared to the initial analysis. (+2%)

ML Model estimates a higher probability for Santos than the current prediction. (+3.6%)

ML Model estimates a lower probability for Cruzeiro than the current prediction. (-3.1%)

Who will win by Users?

1	X	2
14.3%	71.4%	14.3%

Santos - Cruzeiro Predictions

Users Predictions: 7 users predict this event. Santos will win (votes: 1 - 14.3%). Cruzeiro will win (votes: 1 - 14.3%). It will Tie (votes: 5 - 71.4%).

Expected Score (Market Odds): 1:1

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Lineups

Starting Lineups
77. Gabriel Brazao (G) 15. Willian Arao 14. Luan Peres (C) 5. Joao Schmidt 18. Igor Vinicius 23. Rodinei 48. Gustavo Henrique 8. Gabriel Bontempo 32. Rollheiser B. 7. Everton 11. Rony	81. Otavio Costa (G) 23. Fagner 15. Fabricio Bruno 43. Joao Marcelo 27. Rojas G. 29. Romero L. (C) 8. Gerson 99. Arroyo K. 10. Matheus Pereira 7. Matheus Henrique 19. Kaio Jorge
Substitutes
6. Arthur Melo 17. Caballero G. 1. Diogenes (G) 25. Gabriel Menino 42. Joao Alencar 26. Joao Ananias 45. Lima 30. Miguelito 28. Oliva C. 81. Pierri S. 38. Rafael Gonzaga 16. Thaciano	9. Bruno Rodrigues 1. Cassio (G) 67. Costa J. 38. Felipe Morais 2. Kaua Moraes 16. Lucas Silva 11. Marquinhos 97. Rodriguez L. 25. Villalba L. 20. Wesley 12. William Furtado 5. Ze Lucas
Coaches
Cuca	Artur Jorge

Key Events of the Match

1st Half (2 - 0)
28', 1 - 0, Rollheiser B. ⚽,
32', 2 - 0, Fabricio Bruno (Own goal),
45+5', Kaio Jorge 🟨,
2nd Half (0 - 1)
46', Romero L. ↓, Wesley ↑,
61', Gustavo Henrique ↓, Oliva C. ↑,
68', Everton 🟨,
75', Matheus Henrique ↓, Lucas Silva ↑,
75', Fagner ↓, Costa J. ↑,
75', Everton ↓, Arthur Melo ↑,
75', Rollheiser B. ↓, Lima ↑,
75', Gerson ↓, Ze Lucas ↑,
79', Joao Marcelo 🟨,
80', Arroyo K. ↓, Rodriguez L. ↑,
81', Rony ↓, Miguelito ↑,
81', Gabriel Bontempo ↓, Thaciano ↑,
82', Gabriel Brazao 🟨,
90', 2 - 1, Matheus Pereira ⚽, Rodriguez L. (A),
90+4', Fabricio Bruno 🟨,

Preview

A mid-table team takes on a leader in this match (ranked 13 and 6 in the zone Promotion ~ Copa Sudamericana (Group Stage: )).

In the last 5 head-to-head matches, Santos won 2.

Santos is currently in amazing form (last 5 games: 3 wins).

Cruzeiro's form has been unstable in recent games (in the last 5 games, wins – 2).

Santos may face physical challenges compared to their opponent, as they have played more matches in recent days.

The chances of victory for both teams are nearly identical in this match.

There will not play in Santos: Escobar G. (Yellow Cards) Gabriel Barbosa (Yellow Cards) Neymar (Thigh Injury) Vinicius Lira (Knee Injury)

There will not play in Cruzeiro: Gabriel Pec (Broken Leg) Jonathan Jesus (Injury) Sinisterra L. (Muscle Injury)

In the last 20 head-to-head matches, Santos won 7 matches, drew 4 matches, lost 9 matches, and goals 23:24. (average 1.2:1.2).

Including home matches between the teams, Santos won 4 matches, drew 1 match, lost 5 matches, and goals 13:11. (average 1.3:1.1).

Standings

		Pl	W	D	L		Diff	Pts
5	Cruzeiro	29	14	6	9	44:40	4	48
8	Santos	29	11	9	9	45:43	2	42

Last Results with these Odds

Cruzeiro - the odds 2.89 are the expected chance of winning is 32.25%, but this team recently wins 50% of matches with these odds.

Form

✺ - easy match; ✺ - difficult match;

- Santos FC
Copa Sudamericana
09.09.26	Santos - Atlético Mineiro	2:0 ✺
Brazilian Serie A
06.09.26	Internacional RS - Santos	2:3 ✺
Copa do Brasil
02.09.26	Santos - Palmeiras	0:0 ✺
Brazilian Serie A
30.08.26	Corinthians - Santos	0:1 ✺
Copa do Brasil
26.08.26	Palmeiras - Santos	3:0 ✺
Form Coefficient (based on results and difficulties of last matches) - 21.6 WWTWL
- Cruzeiro MG
Brazilian Serie A
06.09.26	Cruzeiro - Athletico Paranaense	3:1 ✺
Copa do Brasil
01.09.26	Atlético Mineiro - Cruzeiro	2:1 ✺
Brazilian Serie A
29.08.26	Vasco da Gama - Cruzeiro	3:1 ✺
Copa do Brasil
25.08.26	Cruzeiro - Atlético Mineiro	1:1 ✺
Brazilian Serie A
22.08.26	Cruzeiro - Flamengo	2:1 ✺
Form Coefficient (based on results and difficulties of last matches) - 6.3 WLLTW

Latest Head to Head

Brazilian Serie A
22.03.26	Cruzeiro - Santos	0:0
07.12.25	Santos - Cruzeiro	3:0
10.08.25	Cruzeiro - Santos	1:2
14.09.23	Santos - Cruzeiro	0:3
06.05.23	Cruzeiro - Santos	2:1
23.11.19	Santos - Cruzeiro	4:1
18.08.19	Cruzeiro - Santos	2:0

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