Match Info

Serie A Betano - Round 36

Date: 28 November 2025, Friday

Location: Estadio Urbano Caldeira (Santos)

Referee: Fernandes de Lima F. (Bra)

Where to Watch on TV:


Brazil	Claro TV+, Globoplay, Premiere, Sky+, SporTV, Vivo Play, Zapping
China	K-Ball
Ecuador	Canal del Futbol, El Canal del Futbol app, El Canal del Futbol
Mexico	Fanatiz
Turkey	Spor Smart 1
Usa	Fanatiz


	Santos		Sport Recife

	1	X	2
	1.3	5.75	8	Watch
	1.32	5.4	7.9
	1.33	5.77	9.71
	1.45	4.30	7.42	Watch
	1.34	5.85	8.57	Watch
	1.33	5.33	9
Avarage Now (Initially)	1.35 ↓ (1.47)	5.4 ↑ (4.4)	8.43 ↑ (7.36)

The most likely Over/Under: 3.25

The best margin for this event is 2.8%, offered by

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Current Win Probability

Santos
71%

Draw
17.7%

Sport Recife
11.3%

Initial Probability

(when we started the analysis)

65.2%

21.8%

13%

Our Initial ML Estimation

49.6%

16.6%

17.1%

Analysis of Changes in Winning Probabilities:

Santos has improved its chances compared to the initial analysis. (+5.8%)

Note: This is a significant improvement in prediction, suggesting increased confidence in Santos's performance.

Sport Recife has seen a decrease in its chances compared to the initial analysis. (-1.7%)

ML Model estimates a lower probability for Santos than the current prediction. (-21.4%)

Note: The ML model's lower estimate suggests that there may be underlying issues with Santos that the model has picked up on.

ML Model estimates a higher probability for Sport Recife than the current prediction. (+5.8%)

Note: The ML model's higher estimate suggests that Sport Recife could outperform expectations, possibly based on recent matchups or player stats.

Who will win by Users?

1	X	2
75%	12.5%	12.5%

Santos - Sport Recife Predictions

Over/Under & Asian Handicap Predictions by Selected Experts:

O/U 3.5 - over (votes: 1 - 100%) .

BTTS, 1st Half - yes (votes: 1 - 100%) .

O/U 2.5, 1st Half - over (votes: 1 - 100%) .

BTTS - yes (votes: 1 - 100%) .

EH -1 - Santos (1.87) (votes: 1 - 100%) .

Users Predictions: Santos will win (12 of 13 users predict this - 92.31%).
Confidence interval (95%): 77.83% – 100%.

Verified Performance Core (Selected Experts): Santos will win (7 of 7 users predict this - 100%) 🥇 Gold Tip.

Overall Expert Consensus (including all markets): 8 Selected Experts predict this event. Santos (votes: 8 - 100%).

Expected Score (Market Odds): 2:0

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Lineups

Starting Lineups
77. Gabriel Brazao (G) 18. Igor Vinicius 98. Frias A. 27. Ze Ivaldo 33. Souza 5. Joao Schmidt 15. Arao W. 10. Neymar (C) 22. Barreal A. 9. Tiquinho Soares 11. Guilherme	1. Gabriel (G) 33. Matheus Alexandre 15. Rafael Thyere (C) 40. Ramon Menezes 36. Luan Candido 14. Rivera C. 21. Lucas Kal 10. Lucas Lima 17. Matheusinho 38. Leo Pereira 92. Pablo
Substitutes
17. Caballero G. 19. Diaz L. 12. Diogenes (G) 49. Gabriel Bontempo 14. Luan Peres 2. Mayke 8. Rincon T. 7. Robson Junior 32. Rollheiser B. 29. Victor Hugo 30. Vinicius Lira 6. Ze Rafael	13. Aderlan 22. Caique Franca (G) 30. Chrystian Barletta 54. Gomes do Nascimento A. 19. Hyoran 16. Igor Carius 27. Oliveira S. 7. Paciencia G. 9. Ramirez I. 11. Romarinho 6. Silva J.
Coaches
Vojvoda J.	Lucena C.

Key Events of the Match

1st Half (2 - 0)
25', 1 - 0, Neymar ⚽, Guilherme (A),
36', 2 - 0, Lucas Kal (Own goal),
2nd Half (1 - 0)
46', Tiquinho Soares ↓, Diaz L. ↑,
46', Pablo ↓, Hyoran ↑,
46', Lucas Kal ↓, Gomes do Nascimento A. ↑,
60', Guilherme ↓, Rollheiser B. ↑,
61', Arao W. ↓, Ze Rafael ↑,
65', Rivera C. 🟨,
67', 3 - 0, Joao Schmidt ⚽, Neymar (A),
75', Matheusinho ↓, Igor Carius ↑,
76', Barreal A. ↓, Robson Junior ↑,
76', Matheus Alexandre ↓, Aderlan ↑,
84', Hyoran ↓, Romarinho ↑,
85', Aderlan 🟨,
90', Neymar ↓, Gabriel Bontempo ↑,

Preview

We will watch a tense game between outsiders (ranked 17 in the zone Relegation ~ Serie B Superbet and 20 in the zone Relegation ~ Serie B Superbet).

In the last 5 head-to-head matches, Santos won 0.

In recent matches, Santos has shown inconsistent form (last 5 games: 1 wins).

Recife has been on a rough run of results (in the last 5 games, wins – 0).

Recently, Recife has had a series of home games.

In this match, Santos is the obvious favorite.

There will not play in Recife: Denis (Knee Injury) Derik Lacerda (Inactive) Hereda (Health problems) Kevyson (Yellow Cards) Pedro Augusto (Hip Injury) Ze Lucas (International duty) Ze Roberto (Knee Injury)

In the last 20 head-to-head matches, Santos won 5 matches, drew 8 matches, lost 7 matches, and goals 26:24. (average 1.3:1.2).

Including home matches between the teams, Santos won 4 matches, drew 4 matches, lost 1 match, and goals 16:8. (average 1.8:0.9).

Form

✺ - easy match; ✺ - difficult match;

- Santos FC
Brazilian Serie A
24.11.25	Internacional RS - Santos	1:1 ✺
19.11.25	Santos - Mirassol	1:1 ✺
15.11.25	Santos - Palmeiras	1:0 ✺
09.11.25	Flamengo - Santos	3:2 ✺
06.11.25	Palmeiras - Santos	2:0 ✺
Form Coefficient (based on results and difficulties of last matches) - 12.6 TTWLL
- Sport Recife
Brazilian Serie A
23.11.25	Sport Recife - Vitória Salvador	1:3 ✺
18.11.25	Botafogo RJ - Sport Recife	3:2 ✺
15.11.25	Sport Recife - Flamengo	1:5 ✺
08.11.25	Sport Recife - Atlético Mineiro	2:4 ✺
05.11.25	Sport Recife - Juventude	0:2 ✺
Form Coefficient (based on results and difficulties of last matches) - 0 LLLLL

Latest Head to Head

Brazilian Serie A
26.07.25	Sport Recife - Santos	2:2
Brazilian Serie B
24.11.24	Sport Recife - Santos	2:1
02.08.24	Santos - Sport Recife	1:1
Brazilian Serie A
17.10.21	Sport Recife - Santos	0:0
30.06.21	Santos - Sport Recife	0:0
28.11.20	Santos - Sport Recife	4:2
20.08.20	Sport Recife - Santos	0:1

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