Match Info

Serie A Betano - Round 24

Date: 23 August 2026, Sunday

Location: Estadio Urbano Caldeira (Santos)

Referee: Batista E. (Bra)

Where to Watch on TV:


Austria	Laola1
Ecuador	El Canal del Futbol app, El Canal del Futbol
Germany	Laola1, Sportdigital FUSSBALL 2
Mexico	Azteca Deportes
Turkey	Spor Smart 2
Usa	SportsEngine Play


	Santos		Mirassol

	1	X	2
	1.71	3.75	4.50	Watch
	1.77	3.70	4.50
	1.82	3.50	4.20	Watch
	1.81	3.80	4.86
	1.92	3.65	3.98	Watch
	1.76	3.75	4.85
	1.77	3.86	4.87	Watch
	1.75	3.65	4.50
Avarage Now (Initially)	1.79 ↓ (2.02)	3.71 ↑ (3.32)	4.53 ↑ (3.63)

The most likely Over/Under: 2.50

The best margin for this event is 2.1%, offered by

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Current Win Probability

Santos
53.3%

Draw
25.7%

Mirassol
21%

Initial Probability

(when we started the analysis)

46.1%

28.2%

25.7%

Our Initial ML Estimation

47.3%

27.5%

25%

Analysis of Changes in Winning Probabilities:

Santos has improved its chances compared to the initial analysis. (+7.2%)

Note: This is a significant improvement in prediction, suggesting increased confidence in Santos's performance.

Mirassol has seen a decrease in its chances compared to the initial analysis. (-4.7%)

ML Model estimates a lower probability for Santos than the current prediction. (-6%)

Note: The ML model's lower estimate suggests that there may be underlying issues with Santos that the model has picked up on.

ML Model estimates a higher probability for Mirassol than the current prediction. (+4%)

Who will win by Users?

1	X	2
82.4%	5.9%	11.8%

Santos - Mirassol Predictions

Verified Performance Core (Selected Experts): 1 Selected Experts predict this event. Santos (votes: 1 - 100%).

Users Predictions: Santos will win (14 of 17 users predict this - 82.35%).
Confidence interval (95%): 64.23% – 100%.

Expected Score (Market Odds): 1:0

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Lineups

Starting Lineups
77. Gabriel Brazao (G) 18. Igor Vinicius 15. Willian Arao 14. Luan Peres 31. Escobar G. 48. Gustavo Henrique 5. Joao Schmidt 11. Rony 10. Neymar (C) 22. Barreal A. 9. Gabriel Barbosa	22. Walter (G) 32. Igor Formiga 34. Joao Victor (C) 3. Willian Machado 6. Reinaldo 25. Neto Moura 55. Cazonatti G. 44. Gabriel Knesowitsch 33. Eduardo 77. Alesson 30. Bruno Santos
Substitutes
17. Caballero G. 27. Fernandes D. 8. Gabriel Bontempo 42. Joao Alencar 26. Joao Ananias 34. Joao Paulo (G) 30. Miguelito 21. Moises 28. Oliva C. 81. Pierri S. 32. Rollheiser B. 16. Thaciano	23. Alex Muralha (G) 9. Andre Luis 96. Carlos Eduardo 10. Chico Kim 20. Daniel Borges 17. Fernandinho 19. Gustavo Silva 5. Japa 2. Lucas Oliveira 7. Shaylon 12. Victor Luis 80. Wallisson
Coaches
Cuca	Rafael Guanaes

Key Events of the Match

1st Half (0 - 1)
20', Joao Schmidt 🟨,
22', Gabriel Knesowitsch 🟨,
24', Neto Moura 🟨,
28', Gabriel Knesowitsch ↓, Lucas Oliveira ↑,
36', 0 - 1, Eduardo ⚽,
2nd Half (1 - 0)
46', Rony ↓, Gabriel Bontempo ↑,
61', Joao Schmidt ↓, Rollheiser B. ↑,
61', Cazonatti G. ↓, Wallisson ↑,
61', Eduardo ↓, Japa ↑,
68', 1 - 1, Barreal A. ⚽, Neymar (A),
73', Wallisson 🟥,
74', Barreal A. ↓, Thaciano ↑,
76', Igor Formiga 🟨,
78', Bruno Santos ↓, Carlos Eduardo ↑,
78', Alesson ↓, Fernandinho ↑,
82', Igor Vinicius ↓, Fernandes D. ↑,
82', Gabriel Barbosa ↓, Caballero G. ↑,
88', Neymar 🟨,

Preview

A meeting between a mid-table team and the outsider will take place in this match (ranked 14 and 17 in the zone Relegation ~ Serie B).

In the last 5 head-to-head matches, Santos won 2.

Santos is currently in amazing form (last 5 games: 3 wins).

Mirassol is on a losing streak (in the last 5 games, wins – 0).

In this match, Santos is the team to beat.

There will not play in Santos: Gabriel Bontempo (Injury) Lucas Verissimo (Calf Injury)

There will not play in Mirassol: Cazonatti G. (Inactive) Denilson (Yellow Cards) Elias (Inactive) Gustavo Silva (Inactive) Jose Aldo (Muscle Injury) Negueba (Knee Injury)

There are questionable in Santos: Vinicius Lira (Knee Injury)

There are questionable in Mirassol: Denilson (Injury) Edson Carioca (Injury)

In the last 12 head-to-head matches, Santos won 6 matches, drew 4 matches, lost 2 matches, and goals 20:17. (average 1.7:1.4).

Including home matches between the teams, Santos won 6 matches, drew 1 match, lost 0 matches, and goals 14:7. (average 2:1).

Outrights of Brazilian Serie A for now

Santos: 0.33%

Standings

		Pl	W	D	L		Diff	Pts
8	Santos	29	11	9	9	45:43	2	42
15	Mirassol	29	8	9	12	34:43	-9	33

Last Results with these Odds

Santos - the odds 2.02 are the expected chance of winning is 46.15%, but this team recently wins 40% of matches with these odds.

Mirassol - the odds 3.63 are the expected chance of winning is 25.7%, but this team recently wins 55% of matches with these odds.

Form

✺ - easy match; ✺ - difficult match;

- Santos FC
Copa Sudamericana
20.08.26	Deportivo Macará - Santos	0:0 ✺
Brazilian Serie A
16.08.26	Vasco da Gama - Santos	0:3 ✺
Copa Sudamericana
13.08.26	Santos - Deportivo Macará	2:1 ✺
Brazilian Serie A
09.08.26	Santos - Athletico Paranaense	0:2 ✺
Copa do Brasil
04.08.26	Remo - Santos	0:1 ✺
Form Coefficient (based on results and difficulties of last matches) - 12.5 TWWLW
- Mirassol
Copa Libertadores
20.08.26	LDU Quito - Mirassol	1:0 penalties ✺
Brazilian Serie A
16.08.26	Mirassol - Flamengo	1:5 ✺
Copa Libertadores
13.08.26	Mirassol - LDU Quito	1:1 ✺
Brazilian Serie A
09.08.26	Cruzeiro - Mirassol	3:1 ✺
Copa do Brasil
05.08.26	Grêmio - Mirassol	1:0 ✺
Form Coefficient (based on results and difficulties of last matches) - 0 LLTLL

Latest Head to Head

Brazilian Serie A
10.03.26	Mirassol - Santos	2:2
19.11.25	Santos - Mirassol	1:1
19.07.25	Mirassol - Santos	3:0
Brazilian Campeonato Paulista
16.01.25	Santos - Mirassol	2:1
Brazilian Serie B
12.10.24	Santos - Mirassol	3:2
25.06.24	Mirassol - Santos	0:0
Brazilian Campeonato Paulista
11.02.24	Mirassol - Santos	2:2

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