Match Info

Serie A Betano - Round 37

Date: 3 December 2025, Wednesday

Location: Estadio Alfredo Jaconi (Caxias do Sul)

Referee: Sampaio W. (Bra)

Where to Watch on TV:


Brazil	Amazon Prime Video
China	K-Ball
Germany	Sportdigital FUSSBALL
Mexico	Fanatiz
Switzerland	Sunrise TV, Sunrise TV
Turkey	Spor Smart 2
Usa	Fanatiz


	Juventude		Santos

	1	X	2
	5.25	3.8	1.61	Watch
	4.95	3.7	1.68
	5.76	3.91	1.66
	4.42	3.66	1.77	Watch
	5	3.5	1.65
	5.3	3.83	1.69	Watch
	5.33	4	1.63
Avarage Now (Initially)	5.14 ↑ (2.75)	3.77 ↑ (3.25)	1.67 ↓ (2.57)

The most likely Over/Under: 2.50

The best margin for this event is 3.2%, offered by

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Current Win Probability

Juventude
18.4%

Draw
25.1%

Santos
56.6%

Initial Probability

(when we started the analysis)

34.3%

29%

36.7%

Our Initial ML Estimation

32.2%

30.9%

39.1%

Analysis of Changes in Winning Probabilities:

Juventude has seen a decrease in its chances compared to the initial analysis. (-15.9%)

Note: This is a significant drop in prediction, indicating that Juventude's form might have worsened.

Santos has improved its chances compared to the initial analysis. (+19.9%)

Note: This is a significant improvement in prediction, suggesting Santos's recent form is better than expected.

ML Model estimates a higher probability for Juventude than the current prediction. (+13.8%)

Note: The ML model's higher estimate suggests a strong performance forecast for Juventude, possibly due to key factors that the model accounted for.

ML Model estimates a lower probability for Santos than the current prediction. (-17.5%)

Note: The ML model's lower estimate suggests a potential downturn for Santos, possibly due to injuries or other negative factors.

Who will win by Users?

1	X	2
0%	18.7%	81.2%

Juventude - Santos Predictions

Users Predictions: 16 users predict this event. Santos will win (votes: 13 - 81.3%). It will Tie (votes: 3 - 18.8%).
Confidence interval (95%) for Santos: 62.2% – 100%.

Verified Performance Core (Selected Experts): 7 Selected Experts predict this event. Santos (votes: 5 - 71.4%). Tie (votes: 2 - 28.6%).

Over/Under & Asian Handicap Predictions by Selected Experts:

DNB - Santos (1.24) (votes: 1 - 100%) .

AH -0.5 - Juventude (4.83) (votes: 1 - 100%) .

Overall Expert Consensus (including all markets): 9 Selected Experts predict this event. Juventude (votes: 1 - 11.1%). Santos (votes: 6 - 66.7%). Tie (votes: 2 - 22.2%).

Expected Score (Market Odds): 0:1

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Lineups

Starting Lineups
13. Jandrei (G) 32. Igor Formiga 3. Luan Freitas 34. Rodrigo Sam 47. Marcos Paulo 22. Marcelo Hermes 16. Jadson 44. Mandaca 72. Peixoto 10. Nene (C) 19. Gabriel Taliari	77. Gabriel Brazao (G) 18. Igor Vinicius 98. Frias A. 27. Ze Ivaldo 33. Souza 15. Arao W. 5. Joao Schmidt 10. Neymar (C) 22. Barreal A. 11. Guilherme 19. Diaz L.
Substitutes
28. Alan Ruschel 4. Angel W. 87. Edison Negueba 97. Enio 2. Ewerthon 9. Gilberto 11. Giovanny 8. Giraldo D. 17. Matheus Babi 99. Rafael Bilu 93. Reginaldo 21. Ruan Carneiro (G)	17. Caballero G. 12. Diogenes (G) 31. Escobar G. 49. Gabriel Bontempo 14. Luan Peres 2. Mayke 8. Rincon T. 7. Robson Junior 32. Rollheiser B. 16. Thaciano 29. Victor Hugo 6. Ze Rafael
Coaches
Thiago Carpini	Vojvoda J.

Key Events of the Match

1st Half (0 - 0)
2nd Half (0 - 3)
56', 0 - 1, Neymar ⚽, Guilherme (A),
62', Nene ↓, Rafael Bilu ↑,
64', Souza 🟨,
65', 0 - 2, Neymar ⚽, Igor Vinicius (A),
67', Rodrigo Sam 🟨,
72', Marcos Paulo 🟨,
73', 0 - 3, Neymar (Penalty Awarded),
77', Luan Freitas ↓, Giovanny ↑,
77', Barreal A. ↓, Rollheiser B. ↑,
77', Diaz L. ↓, Ze Rafael ↑,
79', Ze Rafael 🟨,
81', Ze Ivaldo ↓, Luan Peres ↑,
81', Igor Vinicius ↓, Mayke ↑,
83', Neymar ↓, Thaciano ↑,
90', Peixoto ↓, Enio ↑,

Preview

In this match, only outsiders will meet (ranked 19 in the zone Relegation ~ Serie B Superbet and 16).

Juventude is Relegated to Serie B Superbet

Both teams have been playing unpredictably.

In this match, Santos is seen as the favorite.

There will not play in Juventude: Angel W. (Inactive) Caique Goncalves (Yellow Cards) Gilberto (Muscle Injury) Lucas Fernandes (Inactive) Peixoto (Muscle Injury)

There will not play in Santos: Escobar G. (Injury)

There are questionable in Juventude: Emerson Galego (Ankle Injury)

In the last 5 head-to-head matches, Juventude won 1 match, drew 1 match, lost 3 matches, and goals 6:9. (average 1.2:1.8).

Including home matches between the teams, Juventude won 1 match, drew 0 matches, lost 1 match, and goals 4:2. (average 2:1).

Form

✺ - easy match; ✺ - difficult match;

- EC Juventude
Brazilian Serie A
28.11.25	Juventude - Bahia	1:1 ✺
23.11.25	São Paulo - Juventude	2:1 ✺
20.11.25	Juventude - Cruzeiro	3:3 ✺
08.11.25	Vasco da Gama - Juventude	1:3 ✺
05.11.25	Sport Recife - Juventude	0:2 ✺
Form Coefficient (based on results and difficulties of last matches) - 28.6 TLTWW
- Santos FC
Brazilian Serie A
28.11.25	Santos - Sport Recife	3:0 ✺
24.11.25	Internacional RS - Santos	1:1 ✺
19.11.25	Santos - Mirassol	1:1 ✺
15.11.25	Santos - Palmeiras	1:0 ✺
09.11.25	Flamengo - Santos	3:2 ✺
Form Coefficient (based on results and difficulties of last matches) - 14.1 WTTWL

Latest Head to Head

Brazilian Serie A
04.08.25	Santos - Juventude	3:1
10.10.22	Santos - Juventude	4:1
14.06.22	Juventude - Santos	1:2
26.09.21	Juventude - Santos	3:0
12.06.21	Santos - Juventude	0:0

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