Match Info

USL League One

Date: 16 May 2026, Saturday

Location: Premier Sports Campus (Lakewood Ranch, FL)

Where to Watch on TV:


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	Sarasota Paradise		AV Alta

	1	X	2
				Watch
	2.12	3.25	3
	2.09	3.44	3.24
	2.15	3.4	3.22	Watch
	2.05	3.1	3.1
	2.07	3.3	3.17	Watch
Avarage Now (Initially)	2.1 ↓ (2.24)	3.3 ↑ (3.23)	3.15 ↑ (2.92)

The most likely Over/Under: 2.75

The best margin for this event is 7%, offered by

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Current Win Probability

Sarasota Paradise
43.4%

Draw
27.6%

AV Alta
28.9%

Initial Probability

(when we started the analysis)

40.6%

28.2%

31.2%

Our Initial ML Estimation

42.5%

26.9%

29.8%

Analysis of Changes in Winning Probabilities:

Sarasota Paradise has improved its chances compared to the initial analysis. (+2.8%)

AV Alta has seen a decrease in its chances compared to the initial analysis. (-2.3%)

ML Model estimates a lower probability for Sarasota Paradise than the current prediction. (-0.9%)

ML Model estimates a higher probability for AV Alta than the current prediction. (+0.9%)

Sarasota Paradise - AV Alta Predictions

Expected Score (Market Odds): 1:1

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Lineups

Starting Lineups
1. Sutton A. (C) 27. O'Dwyer C. 3. Valentine R. 5. Sogaard A. 36. Rosa A. 14. Pettersen J. 16. Rodriguez A. 9. Bender J. 46. Roed S. 17. Bolanos J. 10. Cence M.	22. Smith D. (G) 2. Ortiz C. 16. Ceja E. 44. Pehlivanov K. 12. Relerford N. 23. Thomas R. 6. Lay O. 5. Alassane M. 20. Antwi G. 7. Desdunes J. 18. Aoumaich A.
Substitutes
23. Amedeka R. (G) 32. Bolduc M. 50. Brulinski D. 7. Bryant E. 2. Burlew R. 51. Kend A. 19. McLaughlin G. 20. Tainio M. 4. Watters D.	19. Anderson C. 99. Bahena Jr C. 27. Doumbia D. (G) 24. Higareda S. 10. Ibarra M. 17. Mariona J. 15. Winum M.

Key Events of the Match

1st Half (0 - 1)
33', 0 - 1, Desdunes J. ⚽,
2nd Half (1 - 1)
46', Rodriguez A. ↓, Watters D. ↑,
49', 1 - 1, Rosa A. ⚽,
53', 🟨,
53', Sogaard A. 🟨,
56', Antwi G. ↓, Bahena Jr C. ↑,
63', Desdunes J. ↓, Anderson C. ↑,
68', Bolanos J. ↓, Bolduc M. ↑,
68', Cence M. ↓, McLaughlin G. ↑,
76', 1 - 2, Aoumaich A. ⚽,
79', Roed S. ↓, Bryant E. ↑,
81', Ortiz C. ↓, Winum M. ↑,
81', Thomas R. ↓, Higareda S. ↑,
82', Aoumaich A. ↓, Ibarra M. ↑,
83', Bender J. ↓, Brulinski D. ↑,
90+1', Watters D. 🟨,
90+3', Ibarra M. 🟨,

Preview

In this match, only outsiders will meet (ranked 14 and 15).

Both teams are struggling and far from their best.

Sarasota Paradise may face physical challenges compared to their opponent, as they have played more matches in recent days.

In this match, both teams are almost equally likely to win.

In recent times, the teams did not meet on the field.

Standings

		Pl	W	D	L		Diff	Pts
12	Sarasota Paradise	28	9	6	13	39:43	-4	33
13	AV Alta	29	8	8	13	35:42	-7	32

Form

✺ - easy match; ✺ - difficult match;

- Sarasota Paradise
USL Cup
13.05.26	Sarasota Paradise - Sporting Jacksonville	0:2 ✺
USL League One
09.05.26	Chattanooga Red Wolves - Sarasota Paradise	4:1 ✺
02.05.26	Sarasota Paradise - Forward Madison	1:3 ✺
USL Cup
25.04.26	Tampa Bay Rowdies - Sarasota Paradise	2:0 ✺
USL League One
22.04.26	Sarasota Paradise - Corpus Christi	2:1 ✺
Form Coefficient (based on results and difficulties of last matches) - 3.1 LLLLW
- AV Alta FC
USL League One
09.05.26	AV Alta - Forward Madison	2:0 ✺
USL Cup
25.04.26	New Mexico United - AV Alta	2:1 ✺
USL League One
11.04.26	AV Alta - Boise	2:2 ✺
07.04.26	Spokane Velocity - AV Alta	3:1 ✺
04.04.26	AV Alta - Union Omaha	1:3 ✺
Form Coefficient (based on results and difficulties of last matches) - 4.5 WLTLL

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