Match Info

USL Cup

Date: 13 May 2026, Wednesday

Location: Premier Sports Campus (Lakewood Ranch, FL)

Where to Watch on TV:


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	Sarasota Paradise		Sporting Jacksonville

	1	X	2
				Watch
	2.78	3.94	2.04
	2.99	3.31	2.25	Watch
	2.8	3.5	2.05
	2.84	3.82	2.05	Watch
Avarage Now (Initially)	2.85 ↓ (3.91)	3.64 ↑ (3.63)	2.1 ↑ (1.78)

The most likely Over/Under: 2.50

The best margin for this event is 8.1%, offered by

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Current Win Probability

Sarasota Paradise
31.8%

Draw
24.9%

Sporting Jacksonville
43.3%

Initial Probability

(when we started the analysis)

23.4%

25.2%

51.4%

Our Initial ML Estimation

22.4%

24.2%

53.6%

Analysis of Changes in Winning Probabilities:

Sarasota Paradise has improved its chances compared to the initial analysis. (+8.4%)

Note: This is a significant improvement in prediction, suggesting increased confidence in Sarasota Paradise's performance.

Sporting Jacksonville has seen a decrease in its chances compared to the initial analysis. (-8.1%)

Note: This is a significant drop in prediction, and Sporting Jacksonville might be facing challenges that affect their performance.

ML Model estimates a lower probability for Sarasota Paradise than the current prediction. (-9.4%)

Note: The ML model's lower estimate suggests that there may be underlying issues with Sarasota Paradise that the model has picked up on.

ML Model estimates a higher probability for Sporting Jacksonville than the current prediction. (+10.3%)

Note: The ML model's higher estimate suggests that Sporting Jacksonville could outperform expectations, possibly based on recent matchups or player stats.

Sarasota Paradise - Sporting Jacksonville Predictions

Expected Score (Market Odds): 1:1

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Lineups

Starting Lineups
23. Amedeka R. (G) 27. O'Dwyer C. 4. Watters D. 5. Sogaard A. 18. Krueger B. 14. Pettersen J. 16. Rodriguez A. 32. Bolduc M. 7. Bryant E. 17. Bolanos J. 19. McLaughlin G.	31. Olivares C. (G) 4. Dudley E. 2. Neville H. 15. Edwards R. (C) 22. Gomez A. 3. Rose T. 10. Sadlier K. 19. Pedder R. 6. Rossiter J. 11. Al Qaq A. 16. Jaaskelainen E.
Substitutes
22. Backstrand H. 9. Bender J. 50. Brulinski D. 10. Cence M. 51. Kend A. 46. Roed S. 1. Sutton A. (G) 20. Tainio M. 3. Valentine R.	42. Casas E. (G) 5. Elias P. 7. Evans J. 26. Granitur L. 8. Kuzain W. 12. Rito E. 28. Underwood E.

Key Events of the Match

1st Half (0 - 1)
34', 0 - 1, Pedder R. ⚽, Sadlier K. (A),
45+1', Dudley E. 🟨,
2nd Half (0 - 1)
48', Neville H. 🟨,
50', Bolanos J. 🟨,
54', Gomez A. ↓, Rito E. ↑,
60', McLaughlin G. ↓, Cence M. ↑,
60', Bolduc M. ↓, Bender J. ↑,
68', Bolanos J. ↓, Brulinski D. ↑,
68', Rodriguez A. ↓, Roed S. ↑,
70', Pedder R. ↓, Evans J. ↑,
70', Sadlier K. ↓, Kuzain W. ↑,
81', Bryant E. 🟨,
86', Krueger B. ↓, Tainio M. ↑,
87', 0 - 2, Al Qaq A. ⚽, Rito E. (A),
90+1', Tainio M. 🟨,
90+3', Al Qaq A. ↓, Granitur L. ↑,

Preview

Sarasota Paradise is going through a rough patch (last 5 games: 1 wins).

Sporting Jax is on a losing streak (in the last 5 games, wins – 0).

Recently, Sporting Jax has had a series of away games.

In this match, Sporting Jax is the team to beat.

The teams have not played against each other recently.

Form

✺ - easy match; ✺ - difficult match;

- Sarasota Paradise
USL League One
09.05.26	Chattanooga Red Wolves - Sarasota Paradise	4:1 ✺
02.05.26	Sarasota Paradise - Forward Madison	1:3 ✺
USL Cup
25.04.26	Tampa Bay Rowdies - Sarasota Paradise	2:0 ✺
USL League One
22.04.26	Sarasota Paradise - Corpus Christi	2:1 ✺
11.04.26	Naples - Sarasota Paradise	2:0 ✺
Form Coefficient (based on results and difficulties of last matches) - 3.1 LLLWL
- Sporting Jacksonville
USL Championship
09.05.26	Indy Eleven - Sporting Jacksonville	2:1 ✺
02.05.26	Charleston Battery - Sporting Jacksonville	4:0 ✺
USL Cup
25.04.26	Sporting Jacksonville - Miami	0:1 ✺
USL Championship
18.04.26	Louisville City - Sporting Jacksonville	1:0 ✺
11.04.26	Detroit City - Sporting Jacksonville	1:0 ✺
Form Coefficient (based on results and difficulties of last matches) - 0 LLLLL

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