Match Info

Eliteserien - Round 4

Date: 12 April 2026, Sunday

Location: Lerkendal Stadion (Trondheim)

Referee: Moen C. (Nor)

Where to Watch on TV:


Denmark	TV2 Play
Norway	TV2 Play


	Rosenborg		Sarpsborg 08

	1	X	2
	2.25	3.5	2.9	Watch
	2.3	3.5	2.95	Watch
	2.29	3.72	3.1
	2.29	3.66	2.93	Watch
	2.25	3.4	2.8
	2.28	3.66	2.98
Avarage Now (Initially)	2.28 ↑ (1.91)	3.57 ↓ (3.99)	2.94 ↓ (3.67)

The most likely Over/Under: 2.75

The best margin for this event is 2.8%, offered by

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Current Win Probability

Rosenborg
41.5%

Draw
26.4%

Sarpsborg 08
32.1%

Initial Probability

(when we started the analysis)

50%

23.9%

26%

Our Initial ML Estimation

51%

24.4%

25.5%

Analysis of Changes in Winning Probabilities:

Rosenborg has seen a decrease in its chances compared to the initial analysis. (-8.5%)

Note: This is a significant drop in prediction, indicating that Rosenborg's form might have worsened.

Sarpsborg 08 has improved its chances compared to the initial analysis. (+6.1%)

Note: This is a significant improvement in prediction, suggesting Sarpsborg 08's recent form is better than expected.

ML Model estimates a higher probability for Rosenborg than the current prediction. (+9.5%)

Note: The ML model's higher estimate suggests a strong performance forecast for Rosenborg, possibly due to key factors that the model accounted for.

ML Model estimates a lower probability for Sarpsborg 08 than the current prediction. (-6.6%)

Note: The ML model's lower estimate suggests a potential downturn for Sarpsborg 08, possibly due to injuries or other negative factors.

Who will win by Users?

1	X	2
61.5%	7.7%	30.8%

Rosenborg - Sarpsborg 08 Predictions

Users Predictions: 13 users predict this event. Rosenborg will win (votes: 8 - 61.5%). Sarpsborg will win (votes: 4 - 30.8%). It will Tie (votes: 1 - 7.7%).
Confidence interval (95%) for Rosenborg: 35% – 88%.

Verified Performance Core (Selected Experts): 3 Selected Experts predict this event. Rosenborg (votes: 1 - 33.3%). Sarpsborg (votes: 2 - 66.7%).

Expected Score (Market Odds): 1:1

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Lineups

Starting Lineups
1. Wahlstedt L. (G) 15. Mortensen J. 2. Rosten H. 21. Nemcik T. 3. Dahl T. 7. Nordli S. 8. Fossum I. 10. Selnaes O. (C) 35. Ceide E. K. 17. Bomholt M. 18. Chiakha A.	1. Ndiaye M. (G) 12. Niyukuri C. 4. Utvik B. 24. Rosted S. (C) 21. Hiim A. 10. Sorli S. 6. Sher A. 22. Halvorsen V. E. 15. Opoku M. 33. Nibe A. 11. Karlsbakk D.
Substitutes
25. Bakke J. 4. Ceide M. K. 9. Islamovic D. 19. Pereira A. 14. Reitan-Sunde J. 12. Sandberg R. (G) 22. Svensson J. 6. Vaananen S. 5. Volden H.	26. Chriso 8. Christiansen S. 25. Gregersen J. 18. Gueye B. 2. Koch M. 87. Oy L. (G) 81. Svenningsen Gronn M. 32. Wichne E. 17. Williams N.
Coaches
Johansson A.	Sel E.

Key Events of the Match

1st Half (1 - 1)
5', 0 - 1, Sher A. ⚽, Utvik B. (A),
22', Bomholt M. 🟨,
33', 1 - 1, Bomholt M. ⚽, Fossum I. (A),
2nd Half (1 - 0)
51', 2 - 1, Nordli S. ⚽, Selnaes O. (A),
60', Nordli S. ↓, Pereira A. ↑,
64', Halvorsen V. E. ↓, Christiansen S. ↑,
68', Selnaes O. 🟨,
70', Opoku M. ↓, Williams N. ↑,
77', Niyukuri C. ↓, Wichne E. ↑,
77', Nibe A. ↓, Gueye B. ↑,
77', Dahl T. ↓, Reitan-Sunde J. ↑,
79', Mortensen J. 🟨,
81', Nemcik T. ↓, Vaananen S. ↑,
81', Chiakha A. ↓, Islamovic D. ↑,
81', Mortensen J. ↓, Svensson J. ↑,
84', Karlsbakk D. 🟨,

Preview

In the last 5 head-to-head matches, Rosenborg won 0.

Rosenborg has been struggling lately (last 5 games: 1 wins).

Sarpsborg has been unpredictable lately (in the last 5 games, wins – 2).

Recently, Sarpsborg has had a series of away games.

In this match, both teams have almost equal chances to win.

There will not play in Rosenborg: Nemcik T. (Knee Injury) Pereira A. (Inactive) Reitan-Sunde J. (Broken collarbone) Slordal E. (Leg Injury) Volden H. (Injury)

There will not play in Sarpsborg: Berget J. (Injury) Carstensen F. (Injury) Christiansen S. (Injury) Reinhardsen P. (Ankle Injury)

There are questionable in Rosenborg: Duris D. (Shoulder Injury) Svensson J. (Injury) Witry A. F. (Injury)

There are questionable in Sarpsborg: Nibe A. (Injury) Niyukuri C. (Injury)

In the last 20 head-to-head matches, Rosenborg won 6 matches, drew 6 matches, lost 8 matches, and goals 33:36. (average 1.7:1.8).

Including home matches between the teams, Rosenborg won 3 matches, drew 2 matches, lost 5 matches, and goals 17:17. (average 1.7:1.7).

Standings

		Pl	W	D	L		Diff	Pts
5	Rosenborg	21	10	3	8	39:30	9	33
9	Sarpsborg 08	21	6	7	8	24:29	-5	25

Form

✺ - easy match; ✺ - difficult match;

- Rosenborg BK
Norwegian Eliteserien
06.04.26	Tromsø - Rosenborg	2:0 ✺
Club Friendly
26.03.26	Rosenborg - Stjørdals-Blink	4:1 ✺
Norwegian Eliteserien
22.03.26	Rosenborg - Vålerenga	0:2 ✺
14.03.26	Molde - Rosenborg	2:0 ✺
Norwegian NM Cup
08.03.26	Bryne - Rosenborg	4:2 ET ✺
Form Coefficient (based on results and difficulties of last matches) - 1.3 LWLLL
- Sarpsborg 08
Norwegian Eliteserien
06.04.26	Sarpsborg 08 - Start	1:1 ✺
22.03.26	Sandefjord - Sarpsborg 08	0:2 ✺
Norwegian NM Cup
08.03.26	Fredrikstad - Sarpsborg 08	2:1 ✺
Club Friendly
01.03.26	Viking Stavanger - Sarpsborg 08	2:0 ✺
25.02.26	Kristiansund - Sarpsborg 08	0:1 ✺
Form Coefficient (based on results and difficulties of last matches) - 7.4 TWLLW

Latest Head to Head

Norwegian Eliteserien
05.10.25	Rosenborg - Sarpsborg 08	2:3
18.07.25	Sarpsborg 08 - Rosenborg	2:2
Norwegian NM Cup
25.06.25	Rosenborg - Sarpsborg 08	2:3 penalties
Norwegian Eliteserien
23.11.24	Rosenborg - Sarpsborg 08	1:1
12.07.24	Sarpsborg 08 - Rosenborg	4:1
08.10.23	Sarpsborg 08 - Rosenborg	5:2
25.06.23	Rosenborg - Sarpsborg 08	0:3

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