Match Info

Serie A - Round 6

Date: 11 October 2026, Sunday

Location: Mapei Stadium – Città del Tricolore (Reggio Emilia)

Referee: Fourneau F. (Ita)

Where to Watch on TV:


Africa	Azam Sports 3
Albania	Tring Sport 1
Argentina	Disney+
Armenia	Fast Sports 1
Asia	Q League Asia, STARZPLAY Arabic, STARZPLAY Arabic, STARZPLAY Arabic
Australia	beIN Connect, beIN Sports 2
Austria	DAZN
Bangladesh	Begin
Belarus	Sport TV
Belgium	DAZN 1
Bolivia	ESPN 2
Bosnia-and-herzegovina	Arena Premium 2, Arena Sport 2
Brazil	Disney+, SportyNet
Bulgaria	Max Sport 3
Cambodia	MyTV
Canada	DAZN Canada, fubo Sports Network 2 DRM
China	Migu
Croatia	Arena Sport 3, MAXtv To Go
Cyprus	Cytavision on the Go, Cytavision Sports 4, Cytavision Sports 4
Czech-republic	Oneplay, Sport 1
Denmark	DAZN, TV2 Play
Ecuador	ESPN 2
Finland	DAZN, MTV Urheilu 2
France	DAZN France
Germany	DAZN 1 Bar Deutsch, DAZN Deutsch
Hong-kong	beIN Sports 1, beIN SPORTS MAX, M Plus Live, Now Player
Hungary	Match 4
India	ZEE5
Indonesia	Vidio
Iraq	Almanasa
Israel	ONE Sport 2
Italy	DAZN Italia, NOW TV, SKY Go Italia, Sky Sport 251, Sky Sport 4K, Sky Sport Calcio
Japan	DAZN Japan
Kosovo	Arena Premium 3
Kuwait	Shasha
Macao	Macau Cable TV 34 Football
Malaysia	Astro Football, Astro Go
Malta	GO TV, TSN Malta 3
Mexico	Disney+, ESPN 2
Netherlands	Ziggo Go, Ziggo Sport 3, Ziggo Sport
New-zealand	beIN Connect
North-central-america	Disney+ Caribbean
North-macedonia	Arena Premium 3
Norway	VG+
Paraguay	ESPN 2
Peru	Disney+, ESPN 2
Poland	Eleven Sports 1
Romania	Digi Online, Digi Sport 3, Orange TV Go, Prima Sport 3, Prima TV
Russia	MATCH! Futbol 1, Match TV, Sportbox.ru
Saudi-arabia	STC TV, Thmanyah
Serbia	Arena Premium 3
Slovenia	Arena Sport 3
South-korea	SPOTV Now, SPOTV Prime
Spain	DAZN Espana
Suriname	SCCN
Sweden	DAZN, TV4 Fotboll, TV4 Play
Switzerland	DAZN Switzerland
Taiwan	ELTA Sports 3
Thailand	True ID, True Premier Football 3
Tunisia	Diwan Sport
Turkey	S Sport 2
Ukraine	MEGOGO Futbol 1, MEGOGO Ukraine
United-kingdom	DAZN
Uruguay	Disney+
Usa	NBC Universo, NBC, Paramount+, Peacock, Telemundo, UNIVERSO NOW
Venezuela	Disney+, ESPN 2


	Sassuolo		Milan

	1	X	2
	4.00	3.70	1.90	Watch
	3.75	3.70	1.93
	4.00	3.55	1.85	Watch
	4.21	3.75	1.95
	3.97	3.62	1.95	Watch
	4.10	3.60	1.92
	4.02	3.72	1.91
	4.00	3.85	1.88
Avarage Now (Initially)	4.01 ↓ (4.3)	3.69 ↓ (3.76)	1.91 ↑ (1.81)

The most likely Over/Under: 6.75

The best margin for this event is 1.7%, offered by

#Advertisement. For Live Stream GEO restrictions apply. Funded account required. GamblingTherapy.org. 18+

Current Win Probability

Sassuolo
23.9%

Draw
26%

Milan
50.1%

Initial Probability (when we started the analysis)

22.1%

25.3%

52.6%

Our Initial ML Estimation

20.4%

27.4%

57%

Analysis of Changes in Winning Probabilities:

Sassuolo has improved its chances compared to the initial analysis. (+1.8%)

Milan has seen a decrease in its chances compared to the initial analysis. (-2.5%)

ML Model estimates a lower probability for Sassuolo than the current prediction. (-3.5%)

ML Model estimates a higher probability for Milan than the current prediction. (+6.9%)

Note: The ML model's higher estimate suggests that Milan could outperform expectations, possibly based on recent matchups or player stats.

Who will win by Users?

1	X	2
14.3%	14.3%	71.4%

Sassuolo - Milan Predictions

Users Predictions: 28 users predict this event. Sassuolo will win (votes: 4 - 14.3%). Milan will win (votes: 20 - 71.4%). It will Tie (votes: 4 - 14.3%).
Confidence interval (95%) for Milan: 54.7% – 88.1%.

Verified Performance Core (Selected Experts): 3 Selected Experts predict this event. Sassuolo (votes: 1 - 33.3%). Milan (votes: 2 - 66.7%).

Over/Under & Asian Handicap Predictions by Selected Experts:

O/U 2.5 - over (1.65) (votes: 1 - 100%) .

AH -1 - Milan (2.57) (votes: 1 - 100%) .

New Consensus by Tipsters:

O/U 2.5 - over (1.67) (votes: 100%) ⭐ Best Value.

BTTS - yes (1.62) (votes: 100%) ⭐ Best Value.

Overall Expert Consensus (including all markets): 4 Selected Experts predict this event. Sassuolo (votes: 1 - 25%). Milan (votes: 3 - 75%).

Expected Score (Market Odds): 1:2

#ad

Lineups

Starting Lineups
49. Muric A. (G) 20. Van der Brempt I. 15. Caleta-Car D. 16. Leysen F. 3. Doig J. 17. Adzic V. 18. Matic N. 50. Bakola D. 10. Berardi D. (C) 94. Esposito Se. 45. Lauriente A.	16. Maignan M. (C) 34. Gila M. 46. Gabbia M. 31. Pavlovic S. 2. Estupinan P. 21. Chukwueze S. 80. Musah Y. 12. Rabiot A. 22. Moreira D. 11. Pulisic C. 9. Ramos G.
Substitutes
9. Bowie K. 5. Cande F. 46. Cinquegrano S. 25. Dominguez B. 8. Ghion A. 35. Lipani L. 33. Obrador R. 26. Odenthal C. 12. Satalino G. (G) 19. Skjellerup L. 55. Sulemana I. 42. Thorstvedt K. 80. Turati S. (G) 7. Volpato C. 6. Walukiewicz S.	33. Bartesaghi D. 41. Bouyer L. P. (G) 73. Camarda F. 70. Cisse A. 28. Comotto C. 5. De Winter K. 13. Diawara S. 20. Hutchinson O. 30. Jashari A. 8. Loftus-Cheek R. 14. Modric L. 42. Terracciano F. 23. Tomori F. 96. Torriani L. (G)
Coaches
Aquilani A.	Amorim R.

Key Events of the Match

1st Half (0 - 0)
20', Gabbia M. ↓, De Winter K. ↑,
27', Leysen F. ↓, Odenthal C. ↑,
41', Estupinan P. 🟨,
45+3', De Winter K. 🟨,
2nd Half (1 - 1)
46', Estupinan P. ↓, Modric L. ↑,
60', Esposito Se. ↓, Bowie K. ↑,
61', Adzic V. ↓, Thorstvedt K. ↑,
63', 0 - 1, Rabiot A. ⚽, Modric L. (A),
68', 1 - 1, Odenthal C. ⚽,
78', Musah Y. ↓, Jashari A. ↑,
78', Pulisic C. ↓, Cisse A. ↑,
79', Van der Brempt I. ↓, Cinquegrano S. ↑,
79', Matic N. ↓, Lipani L. ↑,
85', Chukwueze S. ↓, Hutchinson O. ↑,
87', Ramos G. 🟨,
90+1', Pavlovic S. 🟨,
90+4', Thorstvedt K. 🟨,

Preview

A competitive mid-table side looks to challenge an upper-table opponent (ranked 10th and 5th in the Promotion - Europa League League phase).

In the last 5 head-to-head matches, Sassuolo won 1.

Sassuolo is in solid form heading into this fixture (last 5 matches: 3 wins).

Performances by Milan have been somewhat unpredictable lately (last 5 matches: 2 wins).

Bookmakers give the edge to Milan for this game.

Confirmed absences for Sassuolo: Idzes J. (Muscle Injury) Kone I. (Broken Leg) Paz Y. (Knee Injury) Pieragnolo E. (Knee Injury) Volpato C. (Thigh Injury).

Confirmed absences for Milan: Saelemaekers A. (Ankle Injury).

Doubtful / questionable for Sassuolo: Boloca D. (Muscle Injury) Cande F. (Knee Injury) Walukiewicz S. (Muscle Injury).

In the last 20 head-to-head meetings, Sassuolo has recorded 5 wins, 5 draws, and 10 losses, with a goal aggregate of 27:36 (averaging 1.4:1.8 goals per game).

Specifically in home fixtures for Sassuolo against this opponent, the record stands at 2 wins, 2 draws, and 6 losses, with 10:17 goals (averaging 1:1.7 per game).

Standings

		Pl	W	D	L		Diff	Pts
5	AC Milan	6	3	3	0	11:5	6	12
11	Sassuolo	6	2	2	2	10:10	0	8

Outrights of Italian Serie A for now

AC Milan: 5.74% Sassuolo: 0.25%

Last Results with these Odds

Milan - the odds 1.81 are the expected chance of winning is 52.57%, but this team recently wins 58% of matches with these odds.

Form

✺ - easy match; ✺ - difficult match;

- US Sassuolo
Italian Serie A
18.09.26	Monza - Sassuolo	2:1 ✺
13.09.26	Sassuolo - Juventus	3:2 ✺
06.09.26	Bologna - Sassuolo	2:2 ✺
Coppa Italia
02.09.26	Sassuolo - Frosinone	2:1 penalties ✺
Italian Serie A
29.08.26	Sassuolo - Torino	2:1 ✺
Form Coefficient (based on results and difficulties of last matches) - 20.5 LWTWW
- AC Milan
Italian Serie A
20.09.26	Milan - Lecce	3:0 ✺
UEFA Europa League
16.09.26	Milan - Benfica	0:2 ✺
Italian Serie A
12.09.26	Lazio - Milan	2:2 ✺
06.09.26	Juventus - Milan	1:1 ✺
28.08.26	Milan - Venezia	2:0 ✺
Form Coefficient (based on results and difficulties of last matches) - 7.5 WLTTW

Latest Head to Head

Italian Serie A
03.05.26	Sassuolo - Milan	2:0
14.12.25	Milan - Sassuolo	2:2
Coppa Italia
03.12.24	Milan - Sassuolo	6:1
Italian Serie A
14.04.24	Sassuolo - Milan	3:3
30.12.23	Milan - Sassuolo	1:0
29.01.23	Milan - Sassuolo	2:5
30.08.22	Sassuolo - Milan	0:0

Upcoming Matches