Match Info

National League North - Round 41

Date: 28 March 2026, Saturday

Location: Mounting Systems Stadium (Bridlington)


	Scarborough Athletic		Chorley

	1	X	2
	2.15	3.1	3
	2.22	3.15	3.05
	2.26	3.13	3.3
	2.24	3.2	3.21	Watch
	2.25	2.9	3.25
	2.26	3.25	3.14
Avarage Now (Initially)	2.23 ↓ (2.28)	3.12 ↓ (3.46)	3.16 ↑ (2.86)

The most likely Over/Under: 2.25

The best margin for this event is 6.5%, offered by

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Current Win Probability

Scarborough Athletic
41.3%

Draw
29.5%

Chorley
29.2%

Initial Probability

(when we started the analysis)

40.7%

26.8%

32.5%

Our Initial ML Estimation

42.1%

25.9%

31.4%

Analysis of Changes in Winning Probabilities:

Scarborough Athletic has improved its chances compared to the initial analysis. (+0.6%)

Chorley has seen a decrease in its chances compared to the initial analysis. (-3.3%)

ML Model estimates a higher probability for Scarborough Athletic than the current prediction. (+0.8%)

ML Model estimates a higher probability for Chorley than the current prediction. (+2.2%)

Scarborough Athletic - Chorley Predictions

Expected Score (Market Odds): 1:1

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Key Events of the Match

1st Half (0 - 0)
2nd Half (0 - 0)

Preview

Playing home matches at a different stadium.

This match features a clash between the league leader and a mid-table team (ranked 7 in the zone Promotion ~ National League North (Play Offs: Quarter~finals) and 15).

In the last 5 head-to-head matches, Scarborough won 1.

Scarborough is undoubtedly in great shape (last 5 games: 2 wins).

Chorley's form has been unstable in recent games (in the last 5 games, wins – 2).

Chorley may face physical challenges compared to their opponent, as they have played more matches in recent days.

Scarborough will hold a modest advantage in this match.

In the last 8 head-to-head matches, Scarborough won 3 matches, drew 2 matches, lost 3 matches, and goals 13:15. (average 1.6:1.9).

Including home matches between the teams, Scarborough won 1 match, drew 1 match, lost 1 match, and goals 6:6. (average 2:2).

Outrights of English National League North for now

Chorley: 1.1%

Standings

		Pl	W	D	L		Diff	Pts
12	Chorley	10	4	2	4	16:17	-1	14
14	Scarborough	10	3	3	4	15:12	3	12

Last Results with these Odds

Chorley - the odds 2.86 are the expected chance of winning is 32.46%, but this team recently wins 11% of matches with these odds.

Form

✺ - easy match; ✺ - difficult match;

- Scarborough Athletic
English National League North
21.03.26	Leamington - Scarborough Athletic	1:2 ✺
14.03.26	Scarborough Athletic - AFC Telford United	1:1 ✺
10.03.26	Scarborough Athletic - King`s Lynn Town	1:1 ✺
07.03.26	Oxford City - Scarborough Athletic	0:2 ✺
03.03.26	Scarborough Athletic - Hereford	0:0 ✺
Form Coefficient (based on results and difficulties of last matches) - 7.8 WTTWT
- Chorley
English National League North
21.03.26	Oxford City - Chorley	2:0 ✺
17.03.26	Chorley - Kidderminster Harriers	2:1 ✺
14.03.26	Chorley - Buxton	1:2 ✺
10.03.26	Chorley - South Shields	1:1 ✺
07.03.26	Macclesfield Town - Chorley	1:2 ✺
Form Coefficient (based on results and difficulties of last matches) - 17.2 LWLTW

Latest Head to Head

English National League North
19.08.25	Chorley - Scarborough Athletic	2:2
28.01.25	Scarborough Athletic - Chorley	2:3
20.08.24	Chorley - Scarborough Athletic	1:2
16.03.24	Chorley - Scarborough Athletic	3:0
English FA Trophy
18.11.23	Chorley - Scarborough Athletic	1:0
English National League North
07.11.23	Scarborough Athletic - Chorley	1:1
10.04.23	Chorley - Scarborough Athletic	2:3

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