Match Info

Campeonato de Portugal - Group C - Round 25

Date: 6 April 2025, Sunday


	Sertanense		Alcains

	1	X	2
	1.95	3	3.6
	1.97	3.05	3.8
	1.93	3.13	3.84
	1.97	3.05	3.8
Avarage Now (Initially)	1.96 ↑ (1.72)	3.06 ↓ (3.64)	3.76 ↓ (4.12)

The most likely Over/Under: 2.00

The best margin for this event is 9.8%, offered by

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Current Win Probability

Sertanense
46.3%

Draw
29.6%

Alcains
24.1%

Initial Probability

(when we started the analysis)

52.9%

25%

22.1%

Our Initial ML Estimation

44.5%

21%

26.3%

Analysis of Changes in Winning Probabilities:

Sertanense has seen a decrease in its chances compared to the initial analysis. (-6.6%)

Note: This is a significant drop in prediction, indicating that Sertanense's form might have worsened.

Alcains has improved its chances compared to the initial analysis. (+2%)

ML Model estimates a lower probability for Sertanense than the current prediction. (-1.8%)

ML Model estimates a higher probability for Alcains than the current prediction. (+2.2%)

Sertanense - Alcains Predictions

Expected Score (Market Odds): 1:0

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Key Events of the Match

1st Half (1 - 1)
23', 1 - 0, ⚽,
40', 1 - 1, ⚽,
2nd Half (2 - 0)
60', 2 - 1, ⚽,
65', 3 - 1, ⚽,

Preview

This time only outsiders will meet in a game (ranked 13 in the zone Relegation and 12 in the zone Relegation).

Sertanense is Relegated to

Alcains is Relegated to

Last 5 head-to-head matches Sertanense won 3.

Sertanense is in unsatisfactory shape (in the last 5 games wins - 0).

Alcains has a line of defeats in latest matches (in the last 5 games wins - 0).

In this match Sertanense is a favorite.

Last 8 head-to-head matches Sertanense won 4 matches, drawn 2 matches, lost 2 matches and goals 9:6 (average 1.1:0.8).

Including matches at home between the teams Sertanense won 1 matches, drawn 1 matches, lost 1 matches and goals 2:3 (average 0.7:1).

Form

✺ - easy match; ✺ - difficult match;

- Sertanense
Campeonato de Portugal - Group C
29.03.25	Os Marialvas - Sertanense	2:1 ✺
16.03.25	Sertanense - Mortágua	0:2 ✺
09.03.25	Arronches Benfica - Sertanense	1:0 ✺
02.03.25	Sertanense - Elvas	0:0 ✺
23.02.25	Fatima - Sertanense	1:1 ✺
Form Coefficient (based on results and difficulties of last matches) - 15.8 LLLTT
- CD Alcains
Campeonato de Portugal - Group C
29.03.25	Alcains - União de Coimbra	0:1 ✺
15.03.25	Marinhense - Alcains	1:0 ✺
09.03.25	Alcains - Peniche	0:2 ✺
02.03.25	SB Castelo Branco - Alcains	2:0 ✺
23.02.25	Alcains - Pombal	0:0 ✺
Form Coefficient (based on results and difficulties of last matches) - 1.2 LLLLT

Latest Head to Head

Campeonato de Portugal - Group C
15.12.24	Alcains - Sertanense	2:0
Campeonato de Portugal - Group B
16.04.23	Sertanense - Alcains	1:3
08.01.23	Alcains - Sertanense	0:3
Taça de Portugal
11.09.22	Alcains - Sertanense	0:1
Campeonato de Portugal - Group B
28.02.21	Alcains - Sertanense	0:2
29.11.20	Sertanense - Alcains	0:0
20.01.19	Alcains - Sertanense	1:1

Sertanense - Alcains: Predictions, Live Scores & TV Guide