Match Info

PORTUGAL: Campeonato de Portugal - Group C - Round 22

Date: 9 March 2025, Sunday 🏁 Finished


	Arronches Benfica		Sertanense

	1	X	2
	1.34	4	8.75
	1.72	2.8	6.2
	1.62	3.02	7.41
	1.57	3.02	7.65
	1.72	2.8	6.2
Avarage Now (Initially)	1.59 ↑ (1.41)	3.13 ↓ (4)	7.24 ↓ (7.27)

The most likely Over/Under: 2.00

The best margin for this event is 8.3%, offered by

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Current Win Probability

Arronches Benfica
57.8%

Draw
29.5%

Sertanense
12.7%

Initial Probability (when we started the analysis)

64.7%

22.8%

12.5%

Our Initial ML Estimation

67.8%

21.8%

11.9%

Analysis of Changes in Winning Probabilities:

Arronches Benfica has seen a decrease in its chances compared to the initial analysis. (-6.9%)

Note: This is a significant drop in prediction, indicating that Arronches Benfica's form might have worsened.

Sertanense has improved its chances compared to the initial analysis. (+0.2%)

ML Model estimates a higher probability for Arronches Benfica than the current prediction. (+10%)

Note: The ML model's higher estimate suggests a strong performance forecast for Arronches Benfica, possibly due to key factors that the model accounted for.

ML Model estimates a lower probability for Sertanense than the current prediction. (-0.8%)

Arronches Benfica - Sertanense Predictions

Expected Score (Market Odds): 1:0

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Key Events of the Match

1st Half (1 - 0)
23', 1 - 0, ⚽,
2nd Half (0 - 0)

Preview

One of the leader and one of the outsider will play in this match (ranked 2 in the zone Promotion ~ Campeonato de Portugal ~ Promotion Group and 12 in the zone Relegation).

Arronches Benfica in the last match got series victories and it is in a super good shape (in the last 5 games wins - 4).

Sertanense is in super good shape now (in the last 5 games wins - 2).

In this match Arronches Benfica is absolute favorite.

Our prediction for today's Arronches Benfica to win the game is with odds 1.37.

Last 2 head-to-head matches Arronches Benfica won 1 matches, drawn 1 matches, lost 0 matches and goals 1:0 (average 0.5:0).

Form

✺ - easy match; ✺ - difficult match;

- Arronches Benfica
Campeonato de Portugal - Group C
02.03.25	União de Coimbra - Arronches Benfica	0:2 ✺
23.02.25	Arronches Benfica - Marinhense	1:0 ✺
16.02.25	Peniche - Arronches Benfica	1:2 ✺
09.02.25	Arronches Benfica - SB Castelo Branco	0:0 ✺
02.02.25	Alcains - Arronches Benfica	2:3 ✺
Form Coefficient (based on results and difficulties of last matches) - 9.9 WWWTW
- Sertanense
Campeonato de Portugal - Group C
02.03.25	Sertanense - Elvas	0:0 ✺
23.02.25	Fatima - Sertanense	1:1 ✺
16.02.25	Sertanense - Pero Pinheiro	1:0 ✺
09.02.25	Alverca B - Sertanense	1:1 ✺
02.02.25	Pombal - Sertanense	0:2 ✺
Form Coefficient (based on results and difficulties of last matches) - 32.9 TTWTW

Latest Head to Head

Campeonato de Portugal - Group C
10.11.24	Sertanense - Arronches Benfica	0:0
Campeonato de Portugal - Group B
15.01.23	Sertanense - Arronches Benfica	0:1

Arronches Benfica - Sertanense