Match Info

SPAIN: Primera RFEF - Group 1 - Round 27

Date: 7 March 2025, Friday

Location: Estadio Las Llanas (Sestao)

Where to Watch on TV:


Spain	FEF TV


	Sestao		Real Sociedad B

	1	X	2
	2.35	3	2.87
	2.4	2.75	2.9
	2.55	2.85	3
	2.57	2.72	3.25
	2.48	2.76	3.11	Watch
	2.43	3.1	2.98
	2.55	2.85	3
Avarage Now (Initially)	2.48 ↓ (3.5)	2.86 ↓ (2.97)	3.02 ↑ (2.14)

The most likely Over/Under: 2.00

The best margin for this event is 6.4%, offered by

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Current Win Probability

Sestao
37.2%

Draw
32.2%

Real Sociedad B
30.6%

Initial Probability

(when we started the analysis)

26.2%

30.9%

42.9%

Our Initial ML Estimation

25.2%

29.7%

44.6%

Analysis of Changes in Winning Probabilities:

Sestao has improved its chances compared to the initial analysis. (+11%)

Note: This is a significant improvement in prediction, suggesting increased confidence in Sestao's performance.

Real Sociedad B has seen a decrease in its chances compared to the initial analysis. (-12.3%)

Note: This is a significant drop in prediction, and Real Sociedad B might be facing challenges that affect their performance.

ML Model estimates a lower probability for Sestao than the current prediction. (-12%)

Note: The ML model's lower estimate suggests that there may be underlying issues with Sestao that the model has picked up on.

ML Model estimates a higher probability for Real Sociedad B than the current prediction. (+14%)

Note: The ML model's higher estimate suggests that Real Sociedad B could outperform expectations, possibly based on recent matchups or player stats.

Who will win by Users?

1	X	2
93.7%	6.2%	0%

Sestao - Real Sociedad B Predictions

Users Predictions: 15 users predict this event. Sestao will win (votes: 14 - 93.3%). It will Tie (votes: 1 - 6.7%).
Confidence interval (95%) for Sestao: 80.6% – 100%.

Expected Score (Market Odds): 1:1

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Lineups

Starting Lineups
13. Herrerin I. (G) 22. Etxeberria M. 23. Efremov A. 21. Miranda A. 12. Barandalla M. 7. Planas A. 6. Gomez A. 15. Bustillo M. 8. Garai G. 14. Garcia S. 10. Martinez Ortiz L. (C)	1. Fraga A. (G) 21. Merino J. 6. Lebarbier A. 28. Carbonell T. 3. Balda J. 11. Ochieng J. 22. Ruperez I. 18. Garcia E. 8. Rodriguez M. 19. Marchal A. 9. Orobengoa E.
Substitutes
2. Alvarez J. 30. Chuchu M. 1. Garrido J. (G) 5. Martinez G. 27. Martin M. 4. Relu 19. Rojo J.	23. Agote U. . Arana E. (G) 40. Astiazaran L. . Carrera G. 7. Diaz D. 16. Gibelalde M. 17. Ramirez D. 38. Ropero I.

Key Events of the Match

1st Half (0 - 0)
43', Merino J. ↓, Agote U. ↑,
2nd Half (0 - 0)
66', Garcia S. ↓, Alvarez J. ↑,
72', Marchal A. ↓, Ramirez D. ↑,
72', Ochieng J. ↓, Astiazaran L. ↑,
74', Planas A. ↓, Rojo J. ↑,
74', Bustillo M. ↓, Relu ↑,
82', Garai G. 🟨,
85', Carbonell T. ↓, Diaz D. ↑,
85', Orobengoa E. ↓, Carrera G. ↑,

Preview

An outsider and one of the leaders will play in this match (ranked 17 in the zone Relegation and 2 in the zone Promotion ~ Primera RFEF ~ Promotion Play Offs).

Last 5 head-to-head matches Sestao won 2.

Recent matches Sestao is playing mutable (in the last 5 games wins - 1).

Real Sociedad B is in a first-rate shape now (in the last 5 games wins - 3).

In this match the chances to win of both teams are almost equal.

Last 13 head-to-head matches Sestao won 4 matches, drawn 7 matches, lost 2 matches and goals 14:14 (average 1.1:1.1).

Including matches at home between the teams Sestao won 2 matches, drawn 2 matches, lost 1 matches and goals 7:8 (average 1.4:1.6).

Form

✺ - easy match; ✺ - difficult match;

- Sestao River
Spanish Primera RFEF Group 1
01.03.25	Arenteiro - Sestao	2:2 ✺
22.02.25	Sestao - Amorebieta	1:0 ✺
16.02.25	Lugo - Sestao	2:1 ✺
08.02.25	Sestao - Zamora	1:1 ✺
01.02.25	Sestao - Leonesa	1:1 ✺
Form Coefficient (based on results and difficulties of last matches) - 8.6 TWLTT
- Real Sociedad B
Spanish Primera RFEF Group 1
02.03.25	Real Sociedad B - Athletic Bilbao B	1:2 ✺
22.02.25	Real Unión de Irun - Real Sociedad B	0:1 ✺
15.02.25	Real Sociedad B - Leonesa	2:2 ✺
08.02.25	Tarazona - Real Sociedad B	0:1 ✺
01.02.25	Real Sociedad B - Barcelona B	3:0 ✺
Form Coefficient (based on results and difficulties of last matches) - 11.1 LWTWW

Latest Head to Head

Spanish Primera RFEF Group 1
14.09.24	Real Sociedad B - Sestao	0:1
06.04.24	Real Sociedad B - Sestao	2:3
17.09.23	Sestao - Real Sociedad B	0:0
Club Friendly
09.08.23	Real Sociedad B - Sestao	1:0
Spanish Segunda RFEF - Group 2
09.04.17	Real Sociedad B - Sestao	0:0
12.11.16	Sestao - Real Sociedad B	1:4
28.02.16	Sestao - Real Sociedad B	1:1

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