Match Info

Segunda RFEF - Group 2 - Round 17

Date: 4 January 2026, Sunday

Location: Estadio Las Llanas (Sestao)


	Sestao		Amorebieta

	1	X	2
	1.65	3.3	4.8
	1.7	3.1	4.95
	1.79	2.95	5.29	Watch
	1.75	3	5
	1.7	3.08	5.36
	1.76	3.1	5
Avarage Now (Initially)	1.73 ↑ (1.72)	3.09 ↓ (3.2)	5.07 ↑ (4.85)

The most likely Over/Under: 2.00

The best margin for this event is 8.7%, offered by

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Current Win Probability

Sestao
52.7%

Draw
29.4%

Amorebieta
17.9%

Initial Probability

(when we started the analysis)

52.9%

28.4%

18.7%

Our Initial ML Estimation

54.3%

27.7%

18.2%

Analysis of Changes in Winning Probabilities:

Sestao has seen a decrease in its chances compared to the initial analysis. (-0.2%)

Amorebieta has seen a decrease in its chances compared to the initial analysis. (-0.8%)

ML Model estimates a higher probability for Sestao than the current prediction. (+1.6%)

ML Model estimates a higher probability for Amorebieta than the current prediction. (+0.3%)

Sestao - Amorebieta Predictions

Over/Under & Asian Handicap Predictions by Selected Experts:

O/U 2 - under (votes: 1 - 100%) .

Expected Score (Market Odds): 1:0

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Key Events of the Match

1st Half (1 - 1)
8', 0 - 1, Zorrilla G. ⚽,
41', 1 - 1, Benito A. ⚽,
2nd Half (0 - 1)
76', 1 - 2, Arratibel B. ⚽,

Preview

One team leads the standings, the other sits mid-table (ranked 4 in the zone Promotion ~ Segunda RFEF ~ Promotion Play Offs and 8).

In the last 5 head-to-head matches, Sestao won 1.

Both teams have been playing unpredictably.

In this match, Sestao is the team to beat.

In the last 12 head-to-head matches, Sestao won 5 matches, drew 1 match, lost 6 matches, and goals 13:15. (average 1.1:1.3).

Including home matches between the teams, Sestao won 4 matches, drew 0 matches, lost 2 matches, and goals 6:4. (average 1:0.7).

Form

✺ - easy match; ✺ - difficult match;

- Sestao River
Spanish Segunda RFEF - Group 2
20.12.25	Basconia - Sestao	3:1 ✺
14.12.25	Sestao - Gernika	2:2 ✺
07.12.25	Utebo - Sestao	0:0 ✺
30.11.25	Sestao - SD Logroñés	1:1 ✺
22.11.25	Sestao - Eibar B	1:0 ✺
Form Coefficient (based on results and difficulties of last matches) - 3.1 LTTTW
- SD Amorebieta
Spanish Segunda RFEF - Group 2
20.12.25	Amorebieta - Mutilvera	0:1 ✺
13.12.25	Eibar B - Amorebieta	0:2 ✺
05.12.25	Amorebieta - Tudelano	0:0 ✺
30.11.25	Ejea - Amorebieta	2:1 ✺
22.11.25	Amorebieta - Náxara	1:1 ✺
Form Coefficient (based on results and difficulties of last matches) - 6 LWTLT

Latest Head to Head

Spanish Primera RFEF Group 1
22.02.25	Sestao - Amorebieta	1:0
30.11.24	Amorebieta - Sestao	2:0
Club Friendly
29.07.23	Sestao - Amorebieta	1:2
20.08.22	Amorebieta - Sestao	1:1
Spanish Segunda RFEF - Group 2
22.04.17	Amorebieta - Sestao	2:1
27.11.16	Sestao - Amorebieta	1:0
12.03.16	Sestao - Amorebieta	1:0

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