Match Info

Segunda RFEF - Group 2 - Round 34

Date: 3 May 2026, Sunday

Location: Estadio Las Llanas (Sestao)


	Sestao		Utebo

	1	X	2
	1.75	3.4	3.9
	1.85	3.3	3.65
	1.82	3.4	3.95
	1.86	3.28	4.11	Watch
	1.85	3.3	3.75
	1.76	3.34	4.33
Avarage Now (Initially)	1.82 ↑ (1.64)	3.34 ↓ (3.45)	3.95 ↓ (4.86)

The most likely Over/Under: 2.50

The best margin for this event is 8.6%, offered by

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Current Win Probability

Sestao
49.9%

Draw
27.1%

Utebo
22.9%

Initial Probability

(when we started the analysis)

55.2%

26.2%

18.6%

Our Initial ML Estimation

55.2%

26.2%

18.6%

Analysis of Changes in Winning Probabilities:

Sestao has seen a decrease in its chances compared to the initial analysis. (-5.3%)

Note: This is a significant drop in prediction, indicating that Sestao's form might have worsened.

Utebo has improved its chances compared to the initial analysis. (+4.3%)

ML Model estimates a higher probability for Sestao than the current prediction. (+5.3%)

Note: The ML model's higher estimate suggests a strong performance forecast for Sestao, possibly due to key factors that the model accounted for.

ML Model estimates a lower probability for Utebo than the current prediction. (-4.3%)

Sestao - Utebo Predictions

Expected Score (Market Odds): 1:0

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Key Events of the Match

1st Half (1 - 0)
7', 1 - 0, Garcia J. ⚽,
2nd Half (0 - 0)
84', Pradera M. 🟥,

Preview

Watch a clash between a mid-table side and a current leader (ranked 9 and 3 in the zone Promotion ~ Segunda RFEF ~ Promotion Play Offs).

Sestao has had mixed results lately (last 5 games: 0 wins).

Utebo is currently in excellent shape (in the last 5 games, wins – 3).

In this match, Sestao is a strong favorite.

In the last 3 head-to-head matches, Sestao won 2 matches, drew 1 match, lost 0 matches, and goals 2:0. (average 0.7:0).

Including home match between the teams, Sestao won 1 match, drew 0 matches, lost 0 matches, and goals 1:0.

Standings

		Pl	W	D	L		Diff	Pts
12	Utebo FC	5	1	3	1	5:5	0	6

Form

✺ - easy match; ✺ - difficult match;

- Sestao River
Spanish Segunda RFEF - Group 2
26.04.26	Amorebieta - Sestao	1:1 ✺
18.04.26	Sestao - Basconia	2:2 ✺
12.04.26	UD Logroñés - Sestao	2:0 ✺
05.04.26	Sestao - Beasain	1:1 ✺
29.03.26	Náxara - Sestao	1:1 ✺
Form Coefficient (based on results and difficulties of last matches) - 1.2 TTLTT
- Utebo FC
Spanish Segunda RFEF - Group 2
26.04.26	Utebo - Ebro	1:0 ✺
18.04.26	Mutilvera - Utebo	1:2 ✺
12.04.26	Utebo - Eibar B	1:1 ✺
04.04.26	Gernika - Utebo	0:1 ✺
29.03.26	Utebo - Real Unión de Irun	2:3 ✺
Form Coefficient (based on results and difficulties of last matches) - 10.7 WWTWL

Latest Head to Head

Spanish Segunda RFEF - Group 2
07.12.25	Utebo - Sestao	0:0
28.01.23	Sestao - Utebo	1:0
11.09.22	Utebo - Sestao	0:1

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