Match Info

Segunda RFEF - Group 2 - Round 33

Date: 26 April 2026, Sunday

Location: Campo Municipal de Urritxe (Amorebieta-Etxano)

Where to Watch on TV:


Spain	Footballclub


	Amorebieta		Sestao

	1	X	2
	3.25	3	2.08
	3.44	3.06	2.19
	3.33	3.16	2.12	Watch
	3.4	2.8	2.15
	3.37	3.02	2.12
	2.9	2.88	2.38
Avarage Now (Initially)	3.28 ↑ (2.9)	2.99 ↑ (2.88)	2.17 ↓ (2.38)

The most likely Over/Under: 2.00

The best margin for this event is 7.4%, offered by

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Current Win Probability

Amorebieta
27.7%

Draw
30.4%

Sestao
41.8%

Initial Probability

(when we started the analysis)

31%

31.2%

37.8%

Our Initial ML Estimation

31.2%

31%

37.6%

Analysis of Changes in Winning Probabilities:

Amorebieta has seen a decrease in its chances compared to the initial analysis. (-3.3%)

Sestao has improved its chances compared to the initial analysis. (+4%)

ML Model estimates a higher probability for Amorebieta than the current prediction. (+3.5%)

ML Model estimates a lower probability for Sestao than the current prediction. (-4.2%)

Amorebieta - Sestao Predictions

Expected Score (Market Odds): 0:1

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Key Events of the Match

1st Half (1 - 1)
19', 1 - 0, Etxaniz J. ⚽,
30', 1 - 1, Garcia J. ⚽,
2nd Half (0 - 0)
49', Rodriguez F. 🟨,
88', Sarriegui I. 🟥,

Preview

Two mid-table teams will face off this time (ranked 8 and 7).

In the last 5 head-to-head matches, Amorebieta won 3.

Both teams have been playing unpredictably.

Amorebieta may have a physical advantage due to more rest days in recent times.

Sestao might have a minor edge in this game.

In the last 13 head-to-head matches, Amorebieta won 7 matches, drew 1 match, lost 5 matches, and goals 17:14. (average 1.3:1.1).

Including home matches between the teams, Amorebieta won 4 matches, drew 1 match, lost 1 match, and goals 11:7. (average 1.8:1.2).

Last Results with these Odds

Amorebieta - the odds 2.9 are the expected chance of winning is 31%, but this team recently wins 50% of matches with these odds.

Form

✺ - easy match; ✺ - difficult match;

- SD Amorebieta
Spanish Segunda RFEF - Group 2
18.04.26	Real Unión de Irun - Amorebieta	3:3 ✺
11.04.26	Amorebieta - Gernika	1:2 ✺
05.04.26	Alavés B - Amorebieta	1:2 ✺
29.03.26	Amorebieta - Eibar B	2:0 ✺
22.03.26	Tudelano - Amorebieta	0:0 ✺
Form Coefficient (based on results and difficulties of last matches) - 22.5 TLWWT
- Sestao River
Spanish Segunda RFEF - Group 2
18.04.26	Sestao - Basconia	2:2 ✺
12.04.26	UD Logroñés - Sestao	2:0 ✺
05.04.26	Sestao - Beasain	1:1 ✺
29.03.26	Náxara - Sestao	1:1 ✺
22.03.26	Sestao - Mutilvera	4:0 ✺
Form Coefficient (based on results and difficulties of last matches) - 1.2 TLTTW

Latest Head to Head

Spanish Segunda RFEF - Group 2
04.01.26	Sestao - Amorebieta	1:2
Spanish Primera RFEF Group 1
22.02.25	Sestao - Amorebieta	1:0
30.11.24	Amorebieta - Sestao	2:0
Club Friendly
29.07.23	Sestao - Amorebieta	1:2
20.08.22	Amorebieta - Sestao	1:1
Spanish Segunda RFEF - Group 2
22.04.17	Amorebieta - Sestao	2:1
27.11.16	Sestao - Amorebieta	1:0

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