Match Info

PORTUGAL: Campeonato de Portugal - Play Offs - Final

Date: 10 June 2024, Monday

Location: Estádio Nacional do Jamor (Lisbon - Oeiras)

Where to Watch on TV:


Portugal	Canal 11


	Setúbal		Amarante

	1	X	2
	2.7	2.9	2.4
	2.85	2.85	2.5
	3.13	2.84	2.63
	3.13	2.69	2.62
	2.88	2.9	2.38
	2.93	2.94	2.41
	3	2.75	2.45
Avarage Now (Initially)	2.95 ↑ (2.22)	2.84 ↓ (3.17)	2.48 ↓ (3.06)

The most likely Over/Under: 2.25

The best margin for this event is 5.2%, offered by

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Current Win Probability

Setúbal
31%

Draw
32.2%

Amarante
36.8%

Initial Probability

(when we started the analysis)

41.2%

28.9%

29.9%

Our Initial ML Estimation

43.7%

30.6%

28.2%

Analysis of Changes in Winning Probabilities:

Setúbal has seen a decrease in its chances compared to the initial analysis. (-10.2%)

Note: This is a significant drop in prediction, indicating that Setúbal's form might have worsened.

Amarante has improved its chances compared to the initial analysis. (+6.9%)

Note: This is a significant improvement in prediction, suggesting Amarante's recent form is better than expected.

ML Model estimates a higher probability for Setúbal than the current prediction. (+12.7%)

Note: The ML model's higher estimate suggests a strong performance forecast for Setúbal, possibly due to key factors that the model accounted for.

ML Model estimates a lower probability for Amarante than the current prediction. (-8.6%)

Note: The ML model's lower estimate suggests a potential downturn for Amarante, possibly due to injuries or other negative factors.

Who will win by Users?

1	X	2
25%	50%	25%

Setúbal - Amarante Predictions

Users Predictions: 8 users predict this event. Setúbal will win (votes: 2 - 25%). Amarante will win (votes: 2 - 25%). It will Tie (votes: 4 - 50%).
Confidence interval (95%) for a draw: 15.4% – 84.6%.

Expected Score (Market Odds): 1:1

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Key Events of the Match

1st Half (0 - 2)
28', 0 - 1, Correa E. ⚽,
37', 0 - 2, Barandas M. ⚽,
2nd Half (0 - 1)
90+5', 0 - 3, ⚽,

Preview

Neutral location - Estádio Nacional do Jamor.

Instantly two teams are in a excellent shape.

The chances to win of two teams are almost the same in this match.

Recently, the teams did not play each other.

Form

✺ - easy match; ✺ - difficult match;

- Vitoria Setúbal
Campeonato de Portugal Promotion Group
01.06.24	SC Lusitânia - Setúbal	2:1 ✺
25.05.24	Setúbal - Moncarapachense	1:0 ✺
19.05.24	União de Santarém - Setúbal	0:0 ✺
05.05.24	Setúbal - SC Lusitânia	3:1 ✺
28.04.24	Moncarapachense - Setúbal	1:2 ✺
Form Coefficient (based on results and difficulties of last matches) - 8.6 LWTWW
- Amarante FC
Campeonato de Portugal Promotion Group
01.06.24	Amarante - São João de Ver	2:1 ✺
25.05.24	Limianos - Amarante	0:2 ✺
19.05.24	Amarante - Pevidem	2:0 ✺
05.05.24	São João de Ver - Amarante	0:1 ✺
28.04.24	Amarante - Limianos	2:3 ✺
Form Coefficient (based on results and difficulties of last matches) - 11 WWWWL

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