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Sevilla - Real Madrid: Predictions, Live Scores & TV Guide

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Match Info

  • LaLiga - Round 37
  • Date: 17 May 2026, Sunday
  • Location: Estadio Ramón Sánchez Pizjuán (Sevilla)
  • Referee: Sanchez J. (Esp)
  • Where to Watch on TV:
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    Sevilla Real Madrid
    Sevilla Real Madrid
    1 X 2
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    Bwin 3.2 3.5 2.15
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    Avarage Now
    (Initially)    		 3.19 ↓
    (3.94)    		 3.53 ↓
    (4.09)    		 2.21 ↑
    (1.78)

    • The most likely Over/Under: 2.75

    • The best margin for this event is 1.4%, offered by

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    Current Win Probability

    Sevilla
    29.8%    		Draw
    27%    		Real Madrid
    43.1%

    Initial Probability

    (when we started the analysis)
    23.9% 23.1% 53%

    Our Initial ML Estimation

    23.6% 22.8% 53.6%


    Analysis of Changes in Winning Probabilities:

  • Sevilla has improved its chances compared to the initial analysis. (+5.9%)
  • Note: This is a significant improvement in prediction, suggesting increased confidence in Sevilla's performance.
  • Real Madrid has seen a decrease in its chances compared to the initial analysis. (-9.9%)
  • Note: This is a significant drop in prediction, and Real Madrid might be facing challenges that affect their performance.
  • ML Model estimates a lower probability for Sevilla than the current prediction. (-6.2%)
  • Note: The ML model's lower estimate suggests that there may be underlying issues with Sevilla that the model has picked up on.
  • ML Model estimates a higher probability for Real Madrid than the current prediction. (+10.5%)
  • Note: The ML model's higher estimate suggests that Real Madrid could outperform expectations, possibly based on recent matchups or player stats.

    • Who will win by Users?

    1
    X
    2
    58.7% 12.7% 28.6%

    Sevilla - Real Madrid Predictions

  • Users Predictions: 63 users predict this event. Sevilla will win (votes: 37 - 58.7%). Real will win (votes: 18 - 28.6%). It will Tie (votes: 8 - 12.7%).
    Confidence interval (95%) for Sevilla: 46.5% – 70.9%.
  • Verified Performance Core (Selected Experts): 12 Selected Experts predict this event. Sevilla (votes: 8 - 66.7%). Real (votes: 4 - 33.3%).
  • Over/Under & Asian Handicap Predictions by Selected Experts:
    • AH +0.5 - Sevilla (1.85) (votes: 2 - 66.7%) .
    • BTTS - yes (votes: 2 - 100%) .
    • O/U 2.75 - over (votes: 1 - 100%) .
  • Overall Expert Consensus (including all markets): 15 Selected Experts predict this event. Sevilla (votes: 10 - 66.7%). Real (votes: 5 - 33.3%).
  • Expected Score (Market Odds): 1:1
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    Lineups

    Starting Lineups
      1. GreeceVlachodimos O. (G)
      2. SpainCarmona J. A.
    32. SpainCastrin
      4. SpainSalas K.
    12. ChileSuazo G.
    11. SwitzerlandVargas R.
    20. SwitzerlandSow D.
      6. SerbiaGudelj N. (C)
    36. SpainOso
      9. NigeriaAdams A.
    17. FranceMaupay N.
    		  1. BelgiumCourtois T. (G)
      2. SpainCarvajal D. (C)
    22. GermanyRudiger A.
    24. SpainHuijsen D.
    20. SpainGarcia F.
    21. MoroccoDiaz B.
    45. SpainPitarch T.
    14. FranceTchouameni A.
      5. EnglandBellingham J.
    10. FranceMbappe K.
      7. BrazilVinicius Junior
    Substitutes
    18. FranceAgoume L.
      3. SpainAzpilicueta C.
    15. PortugalCardoso F.
    21. NigeriaEjuke C.
      8. SpainJoan Jordan
    19. FranceMendy B.
      5. FranceNianzou T.
    13. NorwayNyland O. (G)
    14. SpainPeque
      7. SpainRomero I.
    10. ChileSanchez A.
    16. SpainSanchez J.
    		  4. AustriaAlaba D.
    12. EnglandAlexander-Arnold T.
    17. SpainAsencio R.
      6. FranceCamavinga E.
    18. SpainCarreras A.
    16. SpainGarcia G.
    46. SpainLeiva A.
    30. ArgentinaMastantuono F.
    47. SpainMesonero D.
    43. SpainMestre S. (G)
    29. SpainNavarro Jimenez J. (G)
    Coaches
         SpainGarcia L.
    		     SpainArbeloa A.

    Key Events of the Match

    • 1st Half (0 - 1)
    • 15', 0 - 1, Vinicius Junior ⚽,
    • 2nd Half (0 - 0)
    • 48', Gudelj N. 🟨,
    • 53', Maupay N. ↓, Sanchez A. ↑,
    • 54', Gudelj N. ↓, Agoume L. ↑,
    • 54', Vargas R. ↓, Ejuke C. ↑,
    • 70', Pitarch T. ↓, Mastantuono F. ↑,
    • 70', Tchouameni A. ↓, Camavinga E. ↑,
    • 70', Carmona J. A. ↓, Sanchez J. ↑,
    • 77', Vinicius Junior ↓, Garcia G. ↑,
    • 77', Diaz B. ↓, Alexander-Arnold T. ↑,
    • 78', Oso ↓, Romero I. ↑,
    • 80', Sanchez A. 🟨,
    • 84', Sanchez J. 🟨,
    • 87', Bellingham J. ↓, Leiva A. ↑,
    • 90+4', Agoume L. 🟨,

    Preview

  • A mid-table team takes on a leader in this match (ranked 12 and 2 in the zone Promotion ~ Champions League (League phase: )).
  • Real is Qualified for Champions League (League phase )
  • In the last 5 head-to-head matches, Sevilla won 0.
  • In recent matches, Sevilla has shown inconsistent form (last 5 games: 3 wins).
  • Real is in great form at the moment (in the last 5 games, wins – 3).
  • Real may face physical challenges compared to their opponent, as they have played more matches in recent days.
  • Real will hold a modest advantage in this match.
  • There will not play in Sevilla: Bueno M. (Knee Injury) Marcao (Wrist Injury)
  • There will not play in Real: Ceballos D. (Coach's decision) Eder Militao (Muscle Injury) Guler A. (Muscle Injury) Mendy F. (Muscle Injury) Rodrygo (Knee Injury)
  • There are questionable in Real: Lunin A. (Illness)
  • In the last 20 head-to-head matches, Sevilla won 3 matches, drew 3 matches, lost 14 matches, and goals 23:43. (average 1.2:2.2).
  • Including home matches between the teams, Sevilla won 3 matches, drew 2 matches, lost 5 matches, and goals 15:16. (average 1.5:1.6).

    • Outrights of Spanish LaLiga for now
    Real Madrid: 20.11% Sevilla: 0.42%

    Standings

    PlWDLDiffPts
    4Real Madrid750218:81015
    5Sevilla741210:9113

    Form
    ✺ - easy match; ✺ - difficult match;
    - Sevilla FC
    Spanish LaLiga
    13.05.26 Villarreal - Sevilla 2:3 ✺
    09.05.26 Sevilla - Espanyol 2:1 ✺
    04.05.26 Sevilla - Real Sociedad 1:0 ✺
    26.04.26 Osasuna - Sevilla 2:1 ✺
    23.04.26 Levante - Sevilla 2:0 ✺
    Form Coefficient (based on results and difficulties of last matches) - 13.1
    WWWLL
    - Real Madrid
    Spanish LaLiga
    14.05.26 Real Madrid - Real Oviedo 2:0 ✺
    10.05.26 Barcelona - Real Madrid 2:0 ✺
    03.05.26 Espanyol - Real Madrid 0:2 ✺
    24.04.26 Betis - Real Madrid 1:1 ✺
    21.04.26 Real Madrid - Deportivo Alavés 2:1 ✺
    Form Coefficient (based on results and difficulties of last matches) - 4.2
    WLWTW
    Latest Head to Head
    Spanish LaLiga
    20.12.25 Real Madrid - Sevilla 2:0
    18.05.25 Sevilla - Real Madrid 0:2
    22.12.24 Real Madrid - Sevilla 4:2
    25.02.24 Real Madrid - Sevilla 1:0
    21.10.23 Sevilla - Real Madrid 1:1
    27.05.23 Sevilla - Real Madrid 1:2
    22.10.22 Real Madrid - Sevilla 3:1
    Upcoming Matches
    ✺ - easy match; ✺ - difficult match;
    - Sevilla FC
    Spanish LaLiga
    12.10.26 Levante - Sevilla ✺
    - Real Madrid
    UEFA Champions League
    14.10.26 Roma - Real Madrid ✺
    Spanish LaLiga
    10.10.26 Real Madrid - Villarreal ✺

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