Match Info

ASIA: AFC Champions League - Round 1

Date: 17 September 2024, Tuesday

Location: Shanghai Stadium (Shanghai)

Where to Watch on TV:


Asia	beIN Connect MENA, beIN Sports MENA AFC 3, beIN Sports MENA AFC 3, beIN Sports MENA AFC 3, TOD
Australia	Paramount+
Bosnia-and-herzegovina	Moja TV
Bulgaria	Nova Sport, Triller TV+
China	iQIYI, Migu
Croatia	SportKlub
Finland	MTV Katsomo, MTV Urheilu 1
Georgia	Silk Sport 1
Hong-kong	HOY TV
India	FanCode, FanCode, Vision+
Indonesia	RCTI+
Japan	DAZN Japan
Malaysia	Astro Arena Bola, Astro Go, Astro SuperSport, Sooka
North-macedonia	MaxTV GO
Russia	TV Start
Slovenia	Sportklub
South-korea	Tving, tvN Sports
Sweden	TV4 Play
Turkey	Spor Smart 2
Ukraine	Sport 1, Sport 3
Usa	Paramount+, Sport 24 Extra
Vietnam	FPT Play
World	Onefootball app, Sport 1 Baltic


	Shanghai Shenhua		Pohang Steelers

	1	X	2
				Watch
	1.53	4.33	5.25
	1.55	4.33	5
	1.54	4.35	5.64
	1.54	4.44	5.29	Watch
	1.5	4	5.5	Watch
	1.56	4.3	5.65	Watch
	1.55	4.33	5
Avarage Now (Initially)	1.54 ↓ (2.48)	4.3 ↑ (3.4)	5.33 ↑ (2.58)

The most likely Over/Under: 3.00

The best margin for this event is 5.1%, offered by

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Current Win Probability

Shanghai Shenhua
60.7%

Draw
21.7%

Pohang Steelers
17.5%

Initial Probability

(when we started the analysis)

37.2%

27.1%

35.7%

Our Initial ML Estimation

38.1%

26.5%

34.9%

Analysis of Changes in Winning Probabilities:

Shanghai Shenhua has improved its chances compared to the initial analysis. (+23.5%)

Note: This is a significant improvement in prediction, suggesting increased confidence in Shanghai Shenhua's performance.

Pohang Steelers has seen a decrease in its chances compared to the initial analysis. (-18.2%)

Note: This is a significant drop in prediction, and Pohang Steelers might be facing challenges that affect their performance.

ML Model estimates a lower probability for Shanghai Shenhua than the current prediction. (-22.6%)

Note: The ML model's lower estimate suggests that there may be underlying issues with Shanghai Shenhua that the model has picked up on.

ML Model estimates a higher probability for Pohang Steelers than the current prediction. (+17.4%)

Note: The ML model's higher estimate suggests that Pohang Steelers could outperform expectations, possibly based on recent matchups or player stats.

Who will win by Users?

1	X	2
96.9%	0%	3.1%

Shanghai Shenhua - Pohang Steelers Predictions

Users Predictions: 31 users predict this event. Shanghai Shenhua will win (votes: 30 - 96.8%). Pohang will win (votes: 1 - 3.2%).
Confidence interval (95%) for Shanghai Shenhua: 90.6% – 100%.

Expected Score (Market Odds): 2:1

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Lineups

Starting Lineups
30. Bao Yaxiong (G) 16. Yang Zexiang 32. Fulangxisi Aidi 4. Jiang Shenglong 7. Xu Haoyang 33. Wang Haijian 6. Amadou I. 15. Wu Xi (C) 10. Teixeira J. 9. Andre Luis 18. Fernandinho	32. Lee Seung-Hwan (G) 5. Aspropotamitis J. 55. Choi Hyeon-Woong 34. Lee Gyu-Baeg 26. Lee Tae-Seok 11. Jo Seong-Jun 6. Kim Jong-Woo 16. Han Chan-Hee (C) 18. Kang Hyeon-Je 9. Jorge Luiz 20. An J.
Substitutes
27. Chan Shinichi 36. Fei Ernanduo 17. Gao T. 3. Jin Shunkai 11. Malele C. 1. Ma Zhen (G) 38. Wen Jiabao 14. Xie Pengfei 20. Yu Hanchao 29. Zhou Junchen 41. Zhou Zhengkai (G)	2. Eo Jeong-Won 14. Heo Y. 70. Hwang Seo-woong 27. Jeong Jae-Hee 88. Kim Dong Jin 22. Kim Gyu-Hyeong 7. Kim In-Sung 23. Lee Dong-Hyeop 15. Lee Kyu-min 39. Min Sang-Gi 19. Yoon Min-ho 1. Yun Pyeong-guk (G)
Coaches
Slutski L.	Park Tae-Ha

Key Events of the Match

1st Half (0 - 0)
45+2', Han Chan-Hee 🟨,
2nd Half (4 - 1)
46', Wang Haijian ↓, Malele C. ↑,
46', Kang Hyeon-Je ↓, Jeong Jae-Hee ↑,
46', Jo Seong-Jun ↓, Eo Jeong-Won ↑,
53', 0 - 1, Jorge Luiz ⚽, An J. (A),
65', 1 - 1, Andre Luis ⚽, Fernandinho (A),
69', Choi Hyeon-Woong ↓, Min Sang-Gi ↑,
71', 2 - 1, Malele C. ⚽, Yang Zexiang (A),
72', Fernandinho ↓, Gao T. ↑,
73', An J. ↓, Kim In-Sung ↑,
78', Lee Tae-Seok 🟨,
82', 3 - 1, Malele C. (Pen),
84', Lee Tae-Seok ↓, Kim Dong Jin ↑,
84', 4 - 1, Gao T. ⚽,
88', Teixeira J. ↓, Xie Pengfei ↑,
88', Wu Xi ↓, Yu Hanchao ↑,
90+4', Xu Haoyang ↓, Chan Shinichi ↑,

Preview

Shanghai Shenhua is in undoubted good shape (in the last 5 games wins - 4).

Pohang is in unsatisfactory shape now (in the last 5 games wins - 1).

Shanghai Shenhua will have a poor advantage in this game.

Recently, the teams did not play each other.

Form

✺ - easy match; ✺ - difficult match;

- Shanghai Shenhua
Chinese Super League
13.09.24	Zhejiang Professional - Shanghai Shenhua	3:4 ✺
Chinese FA Cup
22.08.24	Shanghai Shenhua - Beijing Guoan	2:1 ✺
Chinese Super League
17.08.24	Shanghai Shenhua - Shanghai Port	3:1 ✺
10.08.24	Shanghai Shenhua - Nantong Zhiyun	5:1 ✺
04.08.24	Beijing Guoan - Shanghai Shenhua	2:1 ✺
Form Coefficient (based on results and difficulties of last matches) - 8.7 WWWWL
- Pohang Steelers
South Korean K-League 1
13.09.24	Gwangju - Pohang Steelers	2:1 ✺
31.08.24	Ulsan HD - Pohang Steelers	5:4 ✺
South Korean Cup
28.08.24	Pohang Steelers - Jeju	2:1 ✺
South Korean K-League 1
24.08.24	Pohang Steelers - Daegu	1:2 ✺
South Korean Cup
21.08.24	Jeju - Pohang Steelers	2:2 ✺
Form Coefficient (based on results and difficulties of last matches) - 3.2 LLWLT

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