Match Info

K League 1 - Round 11

Date: 2 May 2026, Saturday

Location: Ulsan Munsu Football Stadium (Ulsan)

Where to Watch on TV:


Finland	Veikkaus TV
South-korea	Coupang Play, ENA Sports
World	K League TV


	Ulsan HD		Pohang Steelers

	1	X	2
	2.2	3.25	3.3	Watch
	2.15	3.3	3.25
	2.18	3.1	3.2
	2.3	3.2	3.54
	2.23	3.23	3.27	Watch
	2.2	3	3.25
	2.15	3.29	3.52	Watch
Avarage Now (Initially)	2.2 ↑ (2.05)	3.2 ↓ (3.29)	3.33 ↓ (3.59)

The most likely Over/Under: 2.25

The best margin for this event is 3%, offered by

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Current Win Probability

Ulsan HD
42.6%

Draw
29.3%

Pohang Steelers
28.1%

Initial Probability

(when we started the analysis)

45.6%

28.4%

26%

Our Initial ML Estimation

47.3%

27.4%

25.1%

Analysis of Changes in Winning Probabilities:

Ulsan HD has seen a decrease in its chances compared to the initial analysis. (-3%)

Pohang Steelers has improved its chances compared to the initial analysis. (+2.1%)

ML Model estimates a higher probability for Ulsan HD than the current prediction. (+4.7%)

ML Model estimates a lower probability for Pohang Steelers than the current prediction. (-3%)

Who will win by Users?

1	X	2
55.6%	33.3%	11.1%

Ulsan HD - Pohang Steelers Predictions

Users Predictions: 9 users predict this event. Ulsan will win (votes: 5 - 55.6%). Pohang will win (votes: 1 - 11.1%). It will Tie (votes: 3 - 33.3%).
Confidence interval (95%) for Ulsan: 23.1% – 88.1%.

Expected Score (Market Odds): 1:1

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Lineups

Starting Lineups
21. Jo Hyeon-Woo (G) 2. Yoon Jong-Gyu 4. Seo Myung-Guan 28. Lee Jae-Ik 26. Cho Hyun-Taek 66. Trojak M. 8. Lee H. 10. Lee Dong-Gyeong (C) 24. Lee Gyu-Seong 72. Baek In-Woo 99. Yago Cariello	21. Hwang In-Jae (G) 20. Park Chan-Yong 4. Jeon Min-kwang (C) 36. Kim H. 13. Kang Min-Jun 16. Kim Dong-Jin 40. Ki Sung-Yueng 2. Eo Jeong-Won 10. Tranziska J. 19. Lee Ho-Jae 70. Hwang Seo-Woong
Substitutes
6. Bojanic D. 18. Heo Yool 33. Jang Si-Young 19. Kim Young-Gwon 22. Lee Min-Hyuk 9. Marcao 91. Michel B. 13. Ryu Seong-Min (G) 77. Sim Sang-Min	9. An J. 18. Cho Sang-Hyeok 11. da Rocha Junior J. 8. Kim Seung-Ho 3. Kim Ye-Sung 31. Nishiya K. 17. Shin Kwang-Hoon 77. Wanderson 1. Yun Pyeong-Guk (G)
Coaches
Kim Hyun-seok	Park Tae-Ha

Key Events of the Match

1st Half (0 - 0)
2nd Half (0 - 1)
46', Baek In-Woo ↓, Jang Si-Young ↑,
55', Tranziska J. ↓, da Rocha Junior J. ↑,
65', Kim Dong-Jin ↓, Kim Seung-Ho ↑,
65', Ki Sung-Yueng ↓, Nishiya K. ↑,
71', Lee H. ↓, Bojanic D. ↑,
71', Lee Dong-Gyeong ↓, Michel B. ↑,
73', Lee Jae-Ik ↓, Kim Young-Gwon ↑,
81', Lee Gyu-Seong ↓, Lee Min-Hyuk ↑,
84', Kim H. ↓, Wanderson ↑,
84', Hwang Seo-Woong ↓, Cho Sang-Hyeok ↑,
90+5', 0 - 1, Cho Sang-Hyeok ⚽, Eo Jeong-Won (A),
90+5', Cho Sang-Hyeok 🟨,

Preview

Get ready for a battle between the top and the middle of the table (ranked 2 in the zone Promotion ~ K League 1 (Championship Group: ) and 9 in the zone K League 1 (Relegation Group: )).

In the last 5 head-to-head matches, Ulsan won 1.

Both teams are showing inconsistent performances lately.

Recently, Pohang has had a series of home games.

Ulsan is expected to have a slight advantage in this match.

In the last 20 head-to-head matches, Ulsan won 8 matches, drew 6 matches, lost 6 matches, and goals 27:25. (average 1.4:1.3).

Including home matches between the teams, Ulsan won 5 matches, drew 2 matches, lost 2 matches, and goals 17:13. (average 1.9:1.4).

Standings

		Pl	W	D	L		Diff	Pts
2	Ulsan HD	31	14	5	12	48:44	4	47
9	Pohang	31	11	7	13	28:37	-9	40

Last Results with these Odds

Ulsan HD - the odds 2.05 are the expected chance of winning is 45.58%, but this team recently wins 53% of matches with these odds.

Pohang Steelers - the odds 3.59 are the expected chance of winning is 26.03%, but this team recently wins 14% of matches with these odds.

Form

✺ - easy match; ✺ - difficult match;

- Ulsan HD
South Korean K-League 1
26.04.26	Ulsan HD - Daejeon Citizen	1:4 ✺
22.04.26	Anyang - Ulsan HD	1:1 ✺
19.04.26	Ulsan HD - Gwangju	5:1 ✺
15.04.26	Ulsan HD - FC Seoul	1:4 ✺
11.04.26	Incheon United - Ulsan HD	1:2 ✺
Form Coefficient (based on results and difficulties of last matches) - 6.9 LTWLW
- Pohang Steelers
South Korean K-League 1
26.04.26	Jeonbuk Hyundai Motors - Pohang Steelers	3:2 ✺
22.04.26	Pohang Steelers - Gwangju	1:0 ✺
19.04.26	Pohang Steelers - Anyang	0:1 ✺
11.04.26	Pohang Steelers - Jeju	0:2 ✺
04.04.26	Pohang Steelers - Daejeon Citizen	1:0 ✺
Form Coefficient (based on results and difficulties of last matches) - 5.7 LWLLW

Latest Head to Head

South Korean K-League 1
13.09.25	Pohang Steelers - Ulsan HD	1:1
05.05.25	Ulsan HD - Pohang Steelers	1:1
29.03.25	Pohang Steelers - Ulsan HD	1:0
South Korean Cup
30.11.24	Pohang Steelers - Ulsan HD	3:1 ET
South Korean K-League 1
27.10.24	Pohang Steelers - Ulsan HD	0:2
31.08.24	Ulsan HD - Pohang Steelers	5:4
30.06.24	Pohang Steelers - Ulsan HD	2:1

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